USC vs Cal Prediction, Odds, Line, Pick, and Preview: November 30 | 2022-23 NCAAB Season

USC Trojans (4-3) will head down the I-5 to Berkeley, California, to take on the Cal Golden Bears (0-7) on Wednesday (November 30) night.

USC wrapped up play in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in the Bahamas, finishing fourth after a 64-59 loss to the Wisconsin Badgers. The Trojans collapsed in the waning moments, allowing the Badgers to close the game on a 10-2 run. They scored only two points after the under-five-minute timeout.

Fifth-year starter Drew Peterson led the team with 17 points and ten rebounds in 31 minutes. Leading scorer Boogie Ellis added 15 points but only shot 38%. Top recruit Vince Iwuchukwu, who suffered a cardiac issue in late September, is yet to make his debut for the Trojans. There's no timetable for his return.

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USC vs California Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
USC Trojans	-7.5	0126.5	-330
Cal Golden Bears	+7.5	u126.5	+260

All Lines Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook

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At 0-7, Cal is in the front running for the worst Power Six program in the country. The Golden Bears are yet to win a half since losing to Southern 74-66. They just got swept in the Emerald Coast Classic, recently falling to the Clemson Tigers 67-59.

Devin Askew, a transfer from Texas, scored 18 points, while 7'1" forward Lars Thiemann had 15. Kuany Kuany's struggles continued, going 2 of 8 from the field. He's now 36% for the season.

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ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions

USC

Offensive Key Stats

AdjOFF SQ = 1.03 (121st)

Rim and 3 SQ PPP = 1.15 (13th)

Shot Selection = 86th Percentile (44th)

Shot Making = 35th Percentile (227th)

Rim and 3 Rate = 78.2% (346th)

Offensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 150 Frequency)

Post-Up = 1.03 (8th)

Cut = 1.38 (32nd)

Off the Dribble 3PT = 1.06 (39th)

Isolation = 0.98 (48th)

Midrange = 0.85 (48th)

Defensive key stats

AdjDEF SQ = 0.99 (138th)

Shot Selection = 5th Percentile (20th)

Rim and 3 SQ PPP = 0.99 (34th)

Rim and 3 Rate = 84.6% (86th)

Spacing = 61st Percentile (241st)

Shot Making = 68th Percentile (266th)

Defensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 150 Frequency)

Isolation = 0.88 (142nd)

Catch & Shoot 3PT = 1.04 (278th)

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California

Offensive Key Stats

AdjOFF SQ = 0.94 (311th)

FTR = 39.9% (35th)

Shot Selection = 74th Percentile (81st)

Shot Making = 16th Percentile (301st)

Spacing = 13th Percentile (312th)

Offensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 150 Frequency)

Isolation = 0.92 (138th)

Half Court = 0.96 (253rd)

P&R Ball Screen = 0.92 (291st)

Defensive key stats

adjDEF SQ = 1.03 (226th)

Spacing = 19th Percentile (74th)

Open 3 Rate = 13% (74th)

Rim and 3 Rate = 89.0% (259th)

Shot Making = 78th Percentile (296th)

Defensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 150 Frequency)

Finishing at the Rim = 1.05 (89th)

Transition = 1.23 (143rd)

P&R Ball Screen = 0.99 (192nd)

Isolation = 0.93 (233rd)

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USC vs California Prediction

Offensively, Cal is atrocious. They set up in the half-court but do poorly with execution. Meanwhile, USC uses its strength and size to be one of the top 100 units in the country while defending on the half-court.

Statistically, the Golden Bears have no offensive advantage to speak of. Conversely, USC should reap the benefits of having an edge on offense. They shot the most shots off of isolation this year, and Cal does a terrible job defending it.

That also goes for post-up shots and free-throw chances. The advantages may end there, but it's enough to make you wonder how Cal would hang.

Prediction: USC -7.5 (-110)

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