USC vs. Colorado State Prediction, Odds, Line, Pick, and Preview: December 21 | 2022-23 NCAAB Season

The USC Trojans (9-3) and Colorado State Rams (8-4) will square off in the Jerry Colangelo Classic at the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona, on Wednesday night.

USC is on a mini roll, winning five straight and most recently fending off Auburn 74-71 last Sunday. Leading scorer Boogie Ellis was in a significant rut heading into the game but exploded to score a season-high 28 points on 9-of-15 from the field. Breakout sophomore Kobe Johnson and junior Joshua Morgan scored double-digit points, with Johnson stuffing the stat sheet with 10 points, five rebounds, five assists, and six steals. The Trojans forced 22 Auburn turnovers in the win.

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USC vs. Colorado State State Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
USC Trojans	-2.5	o139	-140
Colorado State Rams	+2.5	u139	+120

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The CSU

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Colorado State picked up a massive non-conference win over Saint Mary's last Sunday, 62-60. Three-time All-MWC guard Isaiah Stevens had a team-high 23 points in the win. Senior John Tonjie was the only other Ram to score in double-figures, dropping 17 points on 6-of-11 from the field. The CSU took four fewer shots than their opponents, but hit a ridiculous 55% from the field.

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ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions

The USC Trojans own a 1.06 AdjOFF SQ this season, which is good for 78th in the nation. Colorado State has the 64th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.95. USC does well in all key stats, but rim and three rate and open three rate, where they rank outside the top 250 in the country. Conversely, the Rams are in the top 180 in the defensive rim and three rate and open three rate.

The Trojans own high-frequency numbers in cut, isolation, midrange, off-screen, post-up, and transition shot types. They are in the top 75 in all those shot types except cut, with a 1.17 SQ PPP (115th in the country). Conversely, the Rams are top 70 in all those categories except 161st in isolation (0.91 SQ PPP) and 179th midrange (0.77 SQ PPP).

The Colorado State Rams have a 1.101 AdjOFF SQ, the 183rd-best mark in the country. USC has posted a 0.99 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 132nd in the country. The Rams are in the top 60 in shot-making (80th percentile) while only in the 34th percentile in shot-selection. The Trojans excel in defensive shot selection and shot-making, placing them in the 18th percentile or better.

Colorado State is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: catch & shoot three-pointers, cut, half-court, off-screen, and P&R ball screens. The CSU is in the top 150 in all those shot types, highlighted by a 1.07 SQ PPP in catch & shoot three-pointers(45th in the country). On the other hand, USC is in the top 95 in defending all those shot types except catch & shoot three-pointers, where they own a 1.02 SQ PPP (161st in the country).

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USC vs. Colorado State Prediction

USC likes to get out and run in transition, but Colorado State has been strong against that shot type all season despite a small sample size. When the Trojans are in the half-court, they rely on iso sets, and although the Rams aren't great at locking up one-on-one, they do an admirable job. The CSU likes to slow the pace down and play in the half-court, but USC has been impressive against that shot type. If the Rams can get their threes to fall, they should be able to hang, if not win outright, but the play is taking the under in a matchup where both teams line up nicely on defense.

Prediction: Under 139 (-110)

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