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The USC Trojans (11-4) will head to the Pauley Pavilion to take on the (#10) UCLA Bruins (13-2) on Thursday night.
USC had their seven-game winning streak snapped by the Washington State Cougars last Sunday. Four of the five Trojan starters scored in double-figures, highlighted by Drew Peterson's 16 points and eight rebounds on 44% from the field. However, they got little production from the bench, while the defense was middling at best.
WSU shot 48% from deep and turned it over only five times. The 81 points scored by the Cougars were the most allowed by the Trojans this season.
USC vs. UCLA Betting Odds
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UCLA is one of the hottest teams in the country, winning 10 in a row with wins over Kentucky, Maryland, Oregon, and Washington State. In addition, they thumped Washington 74-49 to ring in the new year.
Two-time All-Pac-12 honoree and leading scorer Jaime Jaquez scored 17 points, while four-year starter Tyger Campbell posted a 15-point, 11-rebound double-double. 2022 blue chip prospect Adem Bona also had a career-high 19 points in the win.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
The USC Trojans own a 1.07 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 66th in the nation. UCLA has the 4th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.89. Southern Cal does well to average in all key stats, but rim and three rate and open three rate, where they rank in the bottom 60 in the country. Conversely, the Bruins are in the middle of the pack in those key metrics but are in the 95th percentile or worse in spacing and shot-making.
The Trojans own high-frequency numbers in cut, isolation, midrange, off-screen, P&R ball screen, post-up, and transition shot types. They are in the top 100 in all those shot types. Conversely, the Bruins are in the top 200 in all those categories except off-screen and midrange, ranking in the bottom 75 of the country.
The Bruins have a 1.13 AdjOFF SQ, the 19th-best mark in the country. Southern Cal has posted a 0.99 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 122nd in the country. The Bruins are in the top 50 in shot-making and rim and three SQ PPP. The Trojans are in the top 150 in both those categories.
UCLA is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: cut, finishing at the rim, midrange, P&R ball screen, and transition. They are eighth in SQ PPP in transition shot types. USC is 72nd in defending in transition but 295th in midrange.
USC vs. UCLA Prediction
It's always tough to handicap a rivalry game, especially one as unique as USC and UCLA. Despite being two of the better teams in the country, some of the players in tonight's game will be playing in their second, third, or even fourth rendition of this regular season matchup. Southern Cal is receiving too many points in this contest not to ride with the Trojans in anticipation that they can at least hang with the Bruins for the entirety of the game.
Prediction: USC +11 (-110)
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