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The (#5) Virginia Cavaliers (5-0) will travel to Ann Arbor to take on the Michigan Wolverines (5-1) on Tuesday night. Virginia has been perfect this season, beating Baylor and Illinois to take home the Continental Tire Main Event Championship in Vegas earlier in the year. Last week, they had a light schedule, beating the lowly Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks, 72-45. Leading scorer Armaan Franklin had a quiet night with only five points on 33% from the field, but big man Jayden Gardner erupted for 26 points in 25 minutes. Both Franklin and Gardner arrived in Virginia last season via the transfer portal. Franklin is amidst a bounce-back season after shooting 39% from the field in his inaugural season for the Cavs last season. Meanwhile, Gardner, a former 2x All-ACC honoree at ECU, is once again poised for a big season under coach Tony Bennett. Amongst the other vital minute-getters are returners Kadin Shedrick and Reece Beekman, 2019 national champion Kihei Clark, and 3x All-MAC transfer Ben Vander Plas from Ohio.
Virginia vs. Michigan Betting Odds
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Meanwhile, Michigan is riding a two-game heater after getting embarrassed by the Arizona State Sun Devils in the Legends Classic Title Game two weeks prior. They most recently held off a winless Jackson State 78-68 at home. Jett Howard, a blue chip prospect and son of the head coach and former NBA champion Juwan Howard, scored 19 points, splashing 4-of-7 from downtown. Kobe Bufkin and Terrance Williams, two former ESPN top 100 prospects, continued to show vast improvements as they joined Howard in double-figures.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we'll highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions
Virginia
Offensive Key Stats
AdjOFF SQ = 1.13 (11th)
Shot Selection = 99th Percentile (4th)
Free Throw Rate = 57.1% (2nd)
Open Three Rate = 50% (18th)
Spacing = 35th percentile (224th)
Offensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 150 Frequency)
Half Court = 1.23 (91st)
Off the Dribble three-pointer = 1.09 (44th)
Midrange = 0.77 (204th)
Defensive key stats
AdjDEF SQ = 0.9 (19th)
Free Throw Rate = 21.4% (25th)
Rim & Three Rate = 82% (23rd)
Shot Selection = 9th (32nd)
Open Three Rate = 51% = (345th)
Defensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 150 Frequency)
Pick & Roll Screen = 0.91 (68th)
Half Court = 0.95 (77th)
Off the Dribble Three-Point = 1.05 (331st)
Michigan
Offensive Key Stats
AdjOFF SQ = 1.09 (31st)
Shot Making = 81st percentile (58th)
Open Three Rate = 35.1% (87th)
RIm & Three Rate = 85.6% (229th)
Offensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 150 Frequency)
Isolation = 0.96 (65th)
Post-Up = 0.94 (91st)
Half Court = 1.01 (122nd)
Defensive key stats
adjDEF SQ = 0.97 (95th)
Rim & Three Rate = 80.2 (10th)
Shot Selection = 4th Percentile (15th)
FTR = 22.2% (30th)
RIm and Three SQ PPP = 1.00 (49th)
Shot Making = 93rd Percentile (341st)
Defensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 150 Frequency)
Half Court = 0.92 (26th)
Pick & Roll Screen = 0.90 (52nd)
Isolation = 0.90 (175th)
Off the Dribble Three-Pointer (246th)
Virginia vs. Michigan Prediction
Both these teams are excellent at running and stopping the half-court offense. They are also immaculate in adjDEF SQ and tend to slow down the game rather than speed it up. Michigan limits opposing offenses in free throws, a strength of Virginia. With both teams liking to set up in the half-court and neither having a clear offensive advantage, the under is the play in this ACC-Big Ten matchup.
Prediction: Under 130.5 (-110)
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