Wake Forest vs North Carolina Prediction, Odds, Line, Spread, and Picks - January 4 | 2022-23 NCAA Basketball Season

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons (10-4) will visit the North Carolina Tar Heels (9-5) on Wednesday night.

Wake Forest picked up two resume-defining wins last week over Duke and Virginia Tech. Florida transfer and leading scorer Tyree Appleby was a star in those games, playing all but two of the 80 minutes while going for 42 points and dishing out 15 assists. Delaware transfer Andrew Carr was also highly active, reaching double-digit points and at least seven rebounds in both games.

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Wake Forest vs. North Carolina

Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Total	Money Line
Wake Forest Demon Deacons	+10.5	o151.5	+400
North Carolina Tar Heels	-10.5	u151.5	-550

Odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook

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North Carolina had their four-game winning streak snapped last Friday at the hands of the white-hot Pittsburgh Panthers.

Two-time All-ACC standout Armando Bacot posted a 22-point, 13-rebound haul in the defeat, while RJ Davis added 16 points and Northwestern transfer Pete Nance had ten. Despite the loss, the Tar Heels still boast one of the most talented teams in the country, one that made the Final Four last season.

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ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons own a 1.07 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 66th in the nation. North Carolina has the 48th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.94. Wake Forest do exceptionally well in all key stats but in free throw rate, where they are a modest 118th in the country. Conversely, the Tar Heels are in the 92nd percentile in defensive shot-making (338th in the country) but 24th in defensive free throw rate.

The Demon Deacons own high-frequency numbers in catch & shoot three-pointers, finishing at the rim, half-court, isolation, and off-the-dribble three-point shot types. They are in the top 100 in all those shot types except isolation, with a 0.89 SQ PPP (212th in the country). Conversely, the Tar Heels are in the top 150 in all those categories except in catch & shoot three-pointers, with a 1.04 SQ PPP (291st in the country), and in cut, with a 1.13 SQ PPP (223rd).

The North Carolina Tar Heels have a 1.13 AdjOFF SQ, the 16th-best mark in the country. Wake Forest has posted a 0.95 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 63rd in the country. The Tar Heels are in the top 100 in shot selection and free throw rate while in the bottom 25 in open three rate. The Demon Deacons are equally as awful in the open three rate while posting top 100 defensive numbers in shot selection and free throw rate.

North Carolina is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: isolation, midrange, off-screen, P&R ball screen, post-up, and transition. They excel in off-screen and post-up shots while floundering severely in isolation sets. Wake Forest are in the top 100 in defending all those shot types except the pick and roll, where they own a 1.02 SQ PPP (257th in the country). They are best at isolation defense, ranking third in the country.

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Wake Forest - North Carolina Prediction

The Demon Deacons have proven they can make it to their first NCAA Tournament in over a decade. They have enough talent on the roster, paired with former ETSU bench boss Steve Forbes to compete in the hyper-competitive ACC, a fact proven by wins over Duke and Virginia Tech. However, the Demon Deacons are not shown enough love with the current spread. So ride with the Demon Deacons against the spread in this ACC matchup.

Prediction: Fresno State +4.5 (-110)

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