What is Backdoor and Frontdoor Cover

What Backdoor Cover?

A backdoor cover in sports betting can have a significant impact on the outcome of a bet. It is a scenario capable of making or breaking a bettor. It occurs when points are scored at the end of a game that change the point spread, but do not affect the winner. Those who placed a bet on the favored team and lost due to a backdoor cover may argue that their bet was correct and they were unlucky to lose. Let's examine an it in an imaginary premise:

Imagine the upcoming Super Bowl features a matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs. The Bills have been performing exceptionally well throughout the latter half of the season, whereas the Cowboys are facing some notable setbacks due to injuries. As a result, the Bills are considered a strong 8.5 point favorite by many. During the game, the Bills establish a commanding lead early on and maintain it throughout, with a 36-20 advantage heading into the final quarter and possession of the ball with only a few minutes left on the clock.

As the game nears its end, the Buffalo Bills, looking to play it safe and run down the clock, opt to hand off the ball three times in a row before punting with only a minute left on the clock. The Dallas Cowboys, trailing by 16 points, manage to drive down the field and score a touchdown with just a few seconds remaining, and convert a successful two-point conversion. Although their efforts were ultimately in vain, as the onside kick failed, it resulted in a miraculous win for those who placed bets on the Cowboys as the 8.5 point underdog. Despite the Cowboys losing the game, the late score helped them beat the point spread.

When can a Backdoor Cover Occur

Backdoor covers can occur when a team that is heavily favored by a large margin starts to relax, loses focus, or experiences a reversal of fortune due to chance factors. For instance, if the Lakers are favored by 9 points over the Clippers and lead by 17 with a few minutes remaining in the game, but the Lakers coach David Ham decides to take out LeBron James and Dennis Schroder and the Clippers go on a 14-4 run to end the game and cover the spread, this would be a backdoor cover. Similarly, if the Michigan Wolverines are favored by 18 points and leading by 24 points and the opposing team scores on their final drive against the Wolverines' second or third string defense, this would also be considered a backdoor cover.

Backdoor covers often happen in the final minutes of a game when the outcome is already decided and one team is playing "garbage time" by substituting bench players, particularly walk-ons. This is common in college basketball where teams will put in less experienced players and not play their usual strategy, often with the intention of giving a fan favorite or a deserving bench player a chance to play. In addition, a backdoor cover can occur when the winning team is unable to run out the clock and takes a shot with seconds remaining, giving the losing team an opportunity for a last-second buzzer-beater that can ruin the bets of those who placed wagers on the favored team to cover the spread. Announcers may also make reference to this type of event by saying phrases like “that basket certainly matters for some” or refer to it as a "bad beat."

What is Frontdoor Cover

A frontdoor cover is the opposite of a backdoor cover, it happens when a heavily favored team is not on track to cover the spread, but then makes a comeback and ends up winning the game, resulting in a win for those who bet on the favorite, and a loss for those who placed their bets on the underdog. Instead of the underdog unexpectedly covering the spread at the end of the game, a frontdoor cover occurs when the favorite does not seem to be covering the spread, but then makes a comeback at the last moment, thus breaking the hearts of those who bet on the underdog and giving hope to those who placed bets on the favorite.

Let’s examine a hypothetical scenario for a frontdoor cover. The New England Patriots are playing the New York Jets and the Patriots are favored by 10 points. Throughout the game, the Jets are leading and the Patriots are not on track to cover the spread. But in the final minutes of the game, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady leads a comeback and scores a touchdown with under a minute left in the game, giving the Patriots a one-point lead. The Jets are unable to score on their final drive and the Patriots win the game by one point. This would be considered a frontdoor cover, as the favorite team was not on track to cover the spread but ended up winning the game.

When can a Frontdoor Cover Occur

A "frontdoor cover" is a term used in sports betting to describe a scenario where the underdog team unexpectedly wins the game or when the favored team, despite having a difficult game, manages to win by a larger margin than predicted. This outcome can occur due to the losing team taking a risky approach in the final minutes of the game in an attempt to secure a victory. This can be seen in a football game where the losing team uses a lateral play or in a basketball game where the losing team employs an aggressive full-court press in a futile effort to foul, which leads to an open dunk. Additionally, a frontdoor cover can also happen when the favored team, who has been struggling throughout the game, finally figures out a strategy and manages to pull away. Furthermore, in basketball, when the losing team intentionally fouls to extend the game, it can significantly alter the outcome of both the point spread and the point total.

Backdoor & Frontdoor FAQs

What is a backdoor cover in sports betting?

A backdoor cover refers to a situation where a team that is losing manages to cover the point spread in the final minutes of the game through a late rally or by scoring points on a last-second play.

What is a frontdoor cover in sports betting?

A frontdoor cover refers to a situation where a team that is expected to win by a certain margin actually wins by an even larger margin than predicted.

How does a backdoor cover differ from a frontdoor cover?

A backdoor cover is when the underdog team unexpectedly wins by covering the spread in the final minutes of the game, while a frontdoor cover is when the favored team wins by a larger margin than expected.

Can a game have both a backdoor and frontdoor cover?

Yes, it is possible for a game to have both a backdoor cover and a frontdoor cover. For example, a favored team may win by a large margin, but the underdog team may also manage to cover the spread with a late rally.

Why are backdoor and frontdoor covers important in sports betting?

Backdoor and frontdoor covers can have a significant impact on the outcome of a bet, and can affect the payouts for both the bettor and the sportsbook.

What are some examples of backdoor covers in football?

In football, examples of backdoor covers include a team scoring a touchdown on a last-second play or a team recovering an onside kick and scoring points in the final minutes of the game.

What are some examples of frontdoor covers in basketball?

In basketball, examples of frontdoor covers include a team that struggles throughout the game but pulls away in the final minutes to win by a larger margin than expected.

How do sportsbooks handle backdoor and frontdoor covers?

Sportsbooks will typically pay out bets based on the final score of the game, regardless of whether the outcome was a backdoor or frontdoor cover.

Are backdoor and frontdoor covers more common in certain sports?

Backdoor and frontdoor covers can occur in any sport, but they may be more common in sports with higher scoring and more opportunities for last-second plays, such as football and basketball.

How can bettors protect themselves from backdoor and frontdoor covers?

Bettors can protect themselves from backdoor and frontdoor covers by placing bets on the moneyline or total points, rather than the point spread, or by taking advantage of live betting options which allow them to adjust their bets as the game progresses.