Winning Ugly! - Best Bets for Week 14

In sports, everyone has heard the term “Winning Ugly”. It is a term that is used when a team that wins the game does it in a fashion that wasn’t pretty. Like in basketball, when a team is trailing for the whole game and they win the game with a last second shot and win the game by a point.

In baseball, it happens when a team is trailing by three runs and in the bottom of the ninth inning with two outs, the trailing team either scores four runs to win the game or comes up with a monster rally that ends with a grand slam. In hockey, a team is down by two or more goals with about seven minutes left in the 3rd period and they miraculously comeback and not only tie the game but win in regulation or OT.

But in football, this occurs when a good football team that wins a lot of games and everyone knows they should be winning by a lot of points in these games, wins by a little and/or doesn’t over time consistently cover the spread.

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There are two NFL teams that I would like to discuss here. The Baltimore Ravens and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Right now, the Baltimore Ravens are 8-4 SU & 4-7-1 ATS. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 6-6 SU & 3-8-1 ATS. As you can see by their records, they are not good bets against the spread (ATS). For these two teams, this is not just a one season affair, this goes back a few seasons but, to prove my point, we will go back to through the seasons to 2019.

In 2019, the Baltimore Ravens were 14-2 SU & 11-4-1 ATS. That season, they lost in the 1st round of the playoffs as a BIG FAV-9 @HOME to TENN, 28-12. First of all I like John Harbaugh as the BALT HC. I think sometimes the playing calling by BALT is a little suspect and they sometimes let teams hang around instead of finishing them off but, over all, I like him. He is not a great coach but he is good.

Anyway, BALT as a ROAD FAV in 2019, they were 5-0-1 ATS, which is fantastic. Their only PUSH was in wk 5 @PITT. BALT was a ROAD FAV-3 and the final score was BALT 26-23 in OT. As a ROAD DOG they were 2-0 ATS. So in total they were 7-0-1 ATS on the ROAD, very good. As a HOME FAV they were 2-4 ATS. They lost ATS to ARZ+13 ½, CLEV+6 ½, CINNCY+11 & to SF+6. They beat HOU+4 and NYJ+14 ½ . As a HOME DOG they were 2-0 ATS. But looking at the last nine games of the 2019 season, BALT was 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS.

In 2020, BALT went 11-5 SU & 10-6 ATS. That season, BALT they won their 1st game of the playoffs @TENN but then lost the next week @BUFF. This season as a HOME FAV they were 5-3 ATS with ATS losses to KC+3 ½, vs PITT+4 & vs TENN+6 in OT. BALT lost to some good teams there but then beat some bad teams. Their wins as a HOME FAV ATS were vs CLEV, vs CINNCY, vs DAL, vs JAGS & vs NYG. As a HOME DOG they were 0-0 ATS. On the ROAD, BALT slipped a little going 5-2 ATS as a ROAD FAV, which is still very good & 0-1 ATS as a ROAD DOG for a total of 5-3 ATS on the ROAD in 2020. What happened? On the ROAD, BALT lost ATS @PHILLY, @NE, @PITT(DOG). BALT won @HOU, @WASH, @INDY, @CLEV & @CINNCY. BALT was not as dominant on the ROAD as they were in 2019.

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In 2021 the Baltimore Ravens had a bit of a setback season because QB Lamar Jackson was inactive w/injuries for five games and only played in one series in another game before leaving. In those five games, BALT went 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS. Of course, you can’t take those games away from the win-loss totals, but you can always do your due diligence on how the team will respond when a starting QB goes down. But going forward, BALT was 8-9 SU & 7-10 ATS for 2021. They did not make the playoffs in 2021. But as a ROAD FAV they were 0-5 ATS (yikes) and 2-1 ATS as a ROAD DOG. As a ROAD FAV they lost ATS @LV, @DET, @MIA, @CHI & @PITT. As a ROAD DOG they won @DEN & @CLEV while losing @CINNCY. At HOME, BALT as a HOME FAV were 2-4 ATS and 3-0 ATS as a HOME DOG.

The HOME FAV doesn’t seem to fit well with BALT. But, so far the HOME DOG tag does. In 2019-2021, they were 5-0 ATS as a HOME DOG. As a HOME FAV they were 9-11 ATS. Do they get too comfortable at HOME? In those twenty games BALT was 14-6 SU. That is an example of winning ugly. So far in 2022 BALT is 8-4 SU but 4-7-1 ATS. As a HOME FAV they are 4-1 SU but 0-5 ATS. As a HOME DOG they are 0-1 SU & 0-0-1 ATS. On the ROAD BALT is 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS as ROAD FAV. They are 0-0 SU & 0-0 ATS as a ROAD DOG. Do you see a trend here? HOME FAV TOTALS 9-16 ATS. ROAD FAV TOTALS 14-9-1 ATS. Why are they so much better on the ROAD as a FAV than @HOME? This is winning ugly.

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Another point I want to make is that in the month of December & January during 2019-2021, BALT went 10-7 SU & 12-5 ATS. Do they have a late-season push? Take away the four games Lamar Jackson missed in 2021 and BALT was 10-3 SU & 10-3 ATS, a very good BET. Keep close attention to the games BALT plays in 2022 December & January. So far in 2022 they have played one game going 1-0 SU & 0-1 ATS. They were listed as a HOME FAV-8 vs DEN and BALT won 10-9. I guess we’ll see because this is supposed to be their time.

For BALT it seems that they have been known to do reversal of sorts. Most NFL teams feel comfortable @HOME and win most of their games @HOME. For BALT as you can see it is a total opposite. They play better as a team on the ROAD and seem to falter or barely get by @HOME. Are they too relaxed? Are they too comfortable? Do they take their opponent seriously enough to give a full effort? Who knows what is in the minds of the players and coaching staff, but the numbers don’t lie.

The other team I want to look at is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In 2019, the year before QB Tom Brady came to the Buccaneers, they were 7-9 SU & 6-8-2 ATS. As a HOME FAV they were 0-4-1 ATS with ATS losses vs SF, vs NYG, vs ARZ & ATL. The PUSH was vs INDY. As a HOME DOG, TB was 0-2-1 ATS with losses to CAR(LONDON HOME GAME), & vs NO. The PUSH was vs HOU. In those HOME games TB was 2-6 SU & 0-6-2 ATS. Winning ugly wouldn’t apply here because they didn’t win at all. On the ROAD is where they played their best football that season. As a ROAD FAV they were 1-0 SU &1-0 ATS. As a ROAD DOG they were 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS. This shows that they played very tough on the ROAD and were very close to the number that gamblers could rely on. Again a better ROAD team than HOME team.

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In 2020, Tom Brady was now the QB of Tampa Bay. TB went 11-5 SU & 9-6-1 ATS. As a HOME DOG TB was 2-0 ATS. Mind you, Brady has always taken it personal to be listed as a HOME DOG. TB was 2-0 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2020 beating Green Bay, but losing and covering the spread vs KC. As a HOME FAV, TB was 4-2 SU & 3-2-1 ATS. When TB won they covered and when they lost, they didn’t. But, when they beat LAC, they PUSHED. On the ROAD they were 6-1 SU & 4-3 ATS as a ROAD FAV. They won but didn’t cover in two of their games. As a ROAD DOG they lost their only game going 0-1 SU & 0-1 ATS. TB seemingly flipped the switch from the year before, playing better @HOME than on the ROAD.

In 2021, Tampa Bay went 13-4 SU but 9-8 ATS. As a ROAD FAV they didn’t help the gamblers going 6-3 SU but 3-6 ATS. They won @NE but didn’t cover. They won @PHILLY but didn’t cover and they @NYJ but didn’t cover. TB was 0-0 SU & 0-0 ATS as a ROAD DOG in 2021. As a HOME FAV, their dominance @HOME continued with a 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS record. Here, they could be counted on to bring in the dough. Their only falter was the 1st game of the season vs DAL where they won but did not cover. Their other loss SU and ATS was vs NO in wk 15. They were 0-0 SU & 0-0 ATS as a HOME DOG.

So far in 2022, it’s been topsy turvy for Tampa Bay. They are 6-6 SU but 3-8-1 ATS. As a HOME FAV they are 4-1 SU but 1-3-1 ATS. Asa HOME DOG(Brady’s personal obstacle), TB is 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS. Totals for HOME are 4-3 SU (not so bad) but 1-5-1 ATS. So far, they are winning games but winning ugly. In fact, in two of their SU victories @HOME, the games vs LAR & NO were won on the last seconds of the game. In those games TB was 2-0 SU & 0-1-1 ATS. On the ROAD TB as RAOD FAV is 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS. TB started out well going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in the 1st two games this season, but have been 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS since. They are 0-0 SU & 0-0 ATS as a ROAD DOG so far this season.

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One point that needs to be mentioned is that for 2019-2021, Bruce Arians was the HC of TB. He had a different style and in 2019 the starting QB was Jameis Winston. They were competitive and played better on the ROAD than @HOME. Brady comes in under Arians and sort of flips the switch. Now they play better @HOME than on the ROAD. But, they still are a team that wins ugly. Only 2x during the 3 ½ seasons for TB that I talked about have they been dominant. On the ROAD in 2019, they were 5-3 SU but 6-2 ATS and in 2021 TB was 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS @HOME. Only one thing was constant, HC Bruce Arians. Still overall, TB won ugly.

Also noted in 2020 when TB won the SuperBowl, they played four postseason games. In the 1st game, they were a ROAD FAV-8 @WASH. TTB won 31-23 for PUSH. The next two playoff games, TB was a ROAD DOG. They won and covered both. In the SuperBowl they were a DOG+3 and destroyed KC 31-9. But in the regular seasons for 2019-2022 they have won ugly. Different coaches could be the factor or a different starting QB could be the trend but you have to do your homework before putting your good money down.

So over the course of 2019-2022, TB is 37-24 SU & 27-30-4 ATS. That is another example of winning ugly. If you bet on TB during that time, ATS you would be losing money. Again, numbers don’t lie. So moving forward, it is great to be a fan of a team but, if you put your hard earned money down, know the facts about the team you are placing your money on. If you do some research you will find that a popular team is not always the team that makes everyone some money. I hope that I was able to help you out before you decide to bet on a game this weekend. Take care for now and enjoy the games!

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Jeff Cadillac can be found at www.jeffcadillac.com where he analyzes every NFL game every week. He can also be found on the Bettor Sports Network app on Friday nights at 7:30pm EST on the “Rick Kamla Show” discussing NFL games. Jeff also appears as a frequent guest on the Dr. Roto show also on the Bettor Sports Network. He is on Twitter @Jeffcadillac1 where he posts his BEST BET of the WEEK every week on Fridays. He also co-hosts a weekly video for Sideline Sports called the “J & J Sports Express” on Wednesday evenings where they discuss NFL games. That video can be seen LIVE & is posted on Twitter and YouTube. He can be emailed at [email protected].