Xavier vs. Villanova Prediction, Odds, Line, Spread, and Picks - January 7 | 2022-23 NCAA Basketball Season

The (#18) Xavier Musketeers (12-3) will visit the Villanova Wildcats (8-7) on Saturday evening. Xavier has won eight straight games, most recently taking down (#2) Connecticut.

Five Musketeers scored in double-digits, highlighted by 2021-22 All-Big East forward Zach Freemantle's 16 points, 11 rebounds, five assists, and three steals on 6-of-11 shooting. Leading scorer and former UTEP star Souley Boum had 11 points, while 2018 top prospect Jerome Hunter had a season-high 15 points off the bench.

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Xavier vs. Villanova

Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Total	Money Line
Xavier Musketeers	+1.5	o146	N/A
Villanova Wildcats	-1.5	u146	N/A

Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

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Villanova has struggled to replicate their usual success under first-year head coach Kyle Neptune. They are already three losses away from matching a season-high over the last decade.

Star guard Justin Moore remains out while rehabbing from an Achilles injury, leaving the trio of Caleb Daniels, Eric Dixon, and Brandon Slater to carry the load. Daniels had a team-high 20 points in their most recent win over Georgetown, while Dixon had ten and Slater had 14.

Blue chip prospect Cam Whitemore is still rounding into form, as the former top 20 prospects is averaging 11.3 points and 6.1 rebounds during his freshman campaign.

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ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.

The Xavier Musketeers own a 1.13 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 25th in the nation. Villanova has the 26th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.93. Xavier does well in all key stats, but the rim and three rate (235th in the country) and spacing, where they are in the 32nd percentile. Conversely, the Wildcats are in the 69th percentile in defensive spacing but top 50 in all other key categories.

The Musketeers own high-frequency numbers in cut, finishing at the rim, post-up, and transition shot types. They are in the top 130 in all those shot types. Conversely, the Wildcats are in the top 130 in defending all those shot categories, suggesting the Nova defense will be well-equipped to hang with the versatile Xavier offense.

The Villanova Wildcats have a 1.05 AdjOFF SQ, the 89th-best mark in the country. Xavier has posted a 0.95 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 47th in the country. The Wildcats are in the top 70 in the rim and three rate, spacing, and shot-making. The Musketeers are in the top 150 of those key categories.

Villanova is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: catch & shoot three-pointer, half-court, isolation, P&R ball screen, and post-up. On the other hand, Xavier is in the top 150 in defending all those shot types except catch & shoot three-pointer, where they own a 1.05 SQ PPP (323rd in the country), and post-up, where they own a 0.87 SQ PPP (192nd).

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Xavier vs. Villanova Prediction

Villanova's defense should be able to hang tight with Xavier, giving them ample opportunity to pick up their biggest win of the Kyle Neptune era. The Wildcats will still be hurting from the loss of star Justin Moore, but the defense should lock in behind a packed crowd in Pennsylvania. So take the under and expect the Cats to hang on with a defensive-oriented style of basketball.

Prediction: Under 146 (-110)

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