Bundesliga Week 20 Preview: Hamburg v Bayern

It goes without saying that the first two matches of the New Year did not go as planned. A shocking 3-1 loss to a team hot on our tails in 4th place and a painful 2-0 win at home is never how you want to kick off your road to the salad bowl. Or is it? Think back to just a few months ago.

Friday. 7th August 2011. Bayern 0 Gladbach 1.A week later.Saturday. 13th August 2011. Bayern 1 Wolfsburg 0.A week later.Saturday. 20th August 2011. Bayern 5 Hamburg 0.

And that kicked off what will probably be known as the “glory days” of the 2011-2012 season: seven games in a row, in the league, and over 1000 minutes without conceding (as well as notable victories in both the Cup and the Champions League), a rock solid defense, a working offense. Bayern was hailed as the most “in-form” team in Europe, and comparisons to the giants of today’s game were everywhere. The team found stability, the players were in their best form in ages, and they steamrolled through 3 competitions.

Now let’s think back just a few weeks ago.

Friday, 20th January 2012. Bayern 1 Gladbach 1Last week.Saturday, 28th January 2012. Bayern 2 Wolfsburg 0This weekend.Saturday. 4th February 2012. Bayern ? Hamburg ?

So will history repeat itself? Will the team rekindle their form from September – October? It all rests on this weekend, away, in Hamburg.

The HSV side that will play this Saturday will be a stark change to the one we saw last August, or at least they hope so. When Bayern first played Hamburg, they were flirting with a relegation spot, and stayed at the rock bottom of the league for six weeks. They have just two home wins under their belt with four draws, and four losses. With the acquisition of Thorsten Fink, their form picked up and they have since claimed 11th place as their home. HSV’s start to the New Year wasn’t what they were hoping for, with a 5-1 lost to second place Borussia Dortmund, but they did pick up a win last weekend in Berlin.

So what does this mean for Bayern? We had a shaky win against Wolfsburg last weekend. Everyone and their mother appear to be out of form. Robben and Schweinsteiger are not fully fit (Muscle stiffness and a knee bruise, respectively), Gustavo left his mojo on the plane back from Brazil, and Müller has spent more time training in goal than in front of it. However, the start to the Rückrunde has been eerily similar to the start of the Hindründe, so we can only hope for history to repeat itself and this is the start of smooth sailing all the way to the 19th of May.

So what to expect? Rafinha received his fifth yellow against Wolfsburg and is suspended for the match this weekend. Boateng could slot in for him, and we could have Gustavo or Tymo next to Badstuber. Though after Boateng’s remarks after the Gladbach disaster, and a few hints from Heynckes himself, we could see Lahm return to right-back, and see the likes of David Alaba filling in at left back. Kicker reported on Thursday that Tymo could make an appearance at RB. Robben and Ribery both broke off training Wednesday – Ribery for back pains and Robben missed due to family issues. They were back in training on Thursday. Assuming everyone remains fit, you will see the normal duos of Kroosteiger, Robbery, and Müller, and Gomez.

With the league as tight as it is, we cannot afford any slip-ups. Here’s hoping for a good match and another record-breaking run.