An optimistic projection of how many medals India will win at the Tokyo Olympics 2020

The Tokyo Olympics 2020 cycle has seen India take a giant leap forward in their quest for global sports domination. A crop of budding athletes have shone at various continental and world level tournaments in the lead-up to the Tokyo Olympics 2020 and are raring to give their best for the mega event.

Although all the Tokyo-bound Indian athletes have given their best to qualify for the Olympics, projecting their performance on a particular day is a tedious task. Projecting the performance of a particular athlete in an individual sport can be all that more difficult than in a team sport.

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However, we can take three different approaches to project the number of medals that any participating nation can win at the Olympics (or any other event for that matter). The three approaches are:

1. Optimistic Approach

2. Pessimistic Approach

3. Most Likely Approach

In this article, we will have a look at the optimistic projection of the number of medals that India can fetch at the Tokyo Olympics 2020. In an optimistic approach, we expect the luck of the draw to favour Indian athletes in contact sports and racquet sports. In sports like shooting and athletics, we will analyze whether the best performances of Indian athletes will translate into medals at Tokyo Olympics 2020 or not.

Optimistic medal projection for India in shooting at Tokyo Olympics 2020

Shooting will be India's biggest hope of fetching a handful of medals at the Tokyo Olympics 2020. Indian shooting has witnessed a paradigm since the emergence of young shooters like Saurabh Chaudhary, Divyansh Singh Panwar, Manu Bhaker and Elavenil Valarivan. Even the likes of Rahi Sarnobat, Abhishek Verma and Apurvi Chandela have put up some brilliant performances in the lead up to the Tokyo Olympics 2020.

Rahi Sarnobat (L) will be a big medal hopeful for the Indian contingent

A total of 15 shooters in 10 events have qualified for India at the Tokyo Olympics 2020. For all 10 events, there will be a couple of Indian representatives. There are certain events like the 10-meter air pistol and rifle mixed team events, where India can potentially win a couple of medals as well. Shooters like Saurabh Chaudhary and Manu Bhaker can win medals in more than one event as well.

Optimistically speaking, the Indian shooting contingent can win a total of 9 medals at the Tokyo Olympics 2020. Events, where one can expect Indian shooters to win medals, include the 10-meter air pistol event for men, women and mixed teams, the 10-meter air rifle mixed team, men's and women's event, the 25-meter pistol women's event and the 50-meter rifle 3 position event for men.

The medal projection has taken the best past performances and the current form of Indian shooters into account. For this projection, we expect a couple of medals in the 10-meter air pistol mixed team event. One can expect the Indian shooting medal tally to be over 10 medals as well, but in this projection, we have tried to be optimistic with our expectations but not go overboard with it.

Optimistic medal projection for India in combat sports at the Tokyo Olympics 2020

India has qualified its athletes in 4 combat sports for the Tokyo Olympics 2020. The disciplines include wrestling, boxing, fencing and judo. India has qualified an athlete in fencing at the Olympics for the first time courtesy of C.A. Bhavani Devi via Asia Oceania rankings in the women's sabre event. She has exceeded all expectations by achieving this but expecting a medal out of her will be a little over-optimistic.

Shushila Likmabam also qualified for the Tokyo Olympics 2020 in the women's -48kg category in Judo via additional places reserved for Asian judokas. She's done very well to qualify for the Olympics, but like Bhavani, Shushila too will have to beat all the odds to medal at the Tokyo Olympics 2020.

A total of 9 Indian boxers have qualified for the Tokyo Olympics 2020 either by reaching the semi-final stage or by scoring a box-off triumph at the Asia and Oceania qualification tournament. The Indian boxing contingent for the Tokyo Olympics 2020 has some big names like Mary Kom and Amit Panghal in it.

Other than that, the Indian boxing team has a good blend of experienced and young boxers. The likes of Vikas Krishnan Yadav and Pooja Rani have been in good touch in the lead up to the Tokyo Olympics. Youngsters like Manish Kaushik, Simranjit Kaur and Lovlina Borgohain have won World Championship medals in this Olympic cycle.

One can expect Indian boxers to bring home a rich haul of medals if they get the luck of the draw at the Tokyo Olympics 2020. Optimistically, we can project the likes of Amit Panghal, Mary Kom, Pooja Rani, Manish Kaushik and Vikas Krishnan Yadav to win a medal if the aforementioned conditions are fulfilled.

Wrestling is another discipline where India can expect a rich haul of medals if the luck of the draw favors Indian athletes. The likes of Vinesh Phogat and Ravi Kumar Dahiya may not even need the luck of the draw to win a medal at the Tokyo Olympics 2020.

Deepak Punia and Bajrang Punia look like strong contenders to win medals too in their respective weight divisions. One can also expect medals out of Anshu Malik and Sonam Malik as well but they will need a lot of luck to go their way for that to happen. We are projecting a total of 5 Olympic medals for Indian wrestlers in the best case scenario at the Tokyo Olympics 2020.

Optimistic medal projection for India in weightlifting, archery and athletics at the Tokyo Olympics 2020

In weightlifting, Mirabai Chanu looks for the most secure medal for the Indian contingent at the Tokyo Olympics 2020. She is effectively ranked number 2 in the women's 49kg category for the Tokyo Olympics 2020. The only Indian weightlifter to qualify for Tokyo Olympics 2020 is the biggest hope of winning a medal for the contingent.

In archery, a total of 4 Indian athletes (3 men and 1 woman) have qualified for the mega-event. India has never won an archery medal at the Olympics. But this time around, one can expect Indian archers to bring home that elusive medal. Deepika Kumari has been in the form of her life. She has been shooting consistently well and looks to be a serious medal contender individually as well as in mixed team events.

The men's team comprising Atanu Das, Pravin Jadhav and Tarundeep Rai won a silver medal at the World Archery Championships 2019 to qualify for the Tokyo Olympics 2020. One can expect them to bring home a medal as well. However, rather than getting overboard with our expectations, we would like to place our projection for the Indian archery contingent at 2 medals.

In athletics, India has managed to qualify 26 athletes for individual and relay events. India has never won an Olympic medal post-independence in athletics. Frankly speaking, barring the likes of Milkha Singh and P.T. Usha, Indian track and field athletes have been sub-par at the world level.

However, this time around, India has managed to come up with a strong bunch of athletes in throwing events. The likes of Neeraj Chopra, Annu Rani, Tajinderpal Toor and Kamalpreet Kaur have thrown their respective apparatus to world-class distances. Optimistically, one can project Indian track and field athletes to bring home a couple of medals at the Tokyo Olympics 2020.

Optimistic medal projection for India in racquet sports at the Tokyo Olympics 2020

A total of 10 athletes across 3 racquet sports disciplines have managed to qualify for the Tokyo Olympics 2020.

In badminton, the likes of P.V. Sindhu and B. Sai Praneeth have qualified for the singles event, while Satwiksairaj Rankireddy and Chirag Shetty will be representing India in the men's doubles event. Although the probability of an Indian shuttler winning a medal at the Tokyo Olympics 2020 has depreciated considerably since the Rio Olympics, one can expect a medal from the likes of P.V. Sindhu given her past performances at the world championships and the Olympics.

Along with P.V. Sindhu, the men's doubles team of Satwik and Chirag will also be dark horses and could spring in a surprise at the Olympics. We have placed an optimistic medal count for the Badminton team at 2 medals.

In tennis, India has managed to qualify just 2 athletes in the women's doubles event. Ankita Raina and Sania Mirza have done well to qualify for the Tokyo Olympics 2020. One can expect the experience of Sania Mirza to rub off a positive impact on Ankita Raina but expecting a medal from them will be a little too much to ask for.

In table tennis, the mixed doubles team of Sharath Kamal and Manika Batra seems to be the only hope for a medal for India at the Tokyo Olympics 2020. However, with the likes of China, Japan and Germany around, winning a Table Tennis medal at the Olympics will be absolutely miraculous.

Optimistic medal projection for India in Hockey and remaining sports at the Tokyo Olympics 2020

In hockey, both the Indian men's and women's teams have qualified for the Tokyo Olympics 2020. The Indian men's hockey team last won an Olympic medal at the 1980 Moscow Olympics. But this time around, the Indian men's hockey team is looking in great shape to rediscover its lost glory. The world-ranked 4 teams can be deemed to be a medal contender at the Tokyo Olympics 2020.

On the other hand, the women's team have put up some spirited performances in the past and have done well to qualify for the Tokyo Olympics 2020. There won't be huge medal hopes for the Indian contingent but the format of the tournament provides them with an opportunity to make it to the quarter-final stage and then have a shot at the medal.

The Indian men's hockey team is expected to win a medal at the Tokyo Olympics 2020 according to the optimistic projection of medals.

In addition to this, Indian athletes have qualified for equestrian, golf, gymnastics, rowing, swimming and sailing at the Tokyo Olympics 2020.

The equestrian, Fouaad Mirza, could potentially win a medal given his recent performances with his mare Dajara4. In the other 5 events, Indian athletes will be hoping to give their best at the Tokyo Olympics 2020 and have a shot at finishing on the podium in their respective events.

Total medals for India at the Tokyo Olympics 2020 from the optimistic approach

From an optimistic approach, we land up with 9 medals in shooting, 5 each in boxing and wrestling, 2 medals each in athletics, archery and badminton and a medal each in weightlifting, field hockey and equestrian. The total number of medals that the Indian contingent will land up with given the optimistic approach of medal projection is 28.

Going forward, we will project the number of medals that the Indian contingent should win with the most likely and pessimistic approaches.