The Indian national football team has been knocked out of the ongoing 2011 Asian Cup after fighting displays against Australia (0 – 4 ), Bahrain (2 – 5) and South Korea (1 – 4), three of the top teams in Asia. While the team leaves the competition with the most goals conceded in the tournament, they did not suffer the most lop sided loss (which was Saudi Arabia’s 0 – 5 loss to Japan) and scored more goals than Saudi Arabia, North Korea, Kuwait and the UAE combined against arguably weaker opposition.
All in all, a creditable performance and the ideal beginning for what many hope is a renaissance in Indian football. Authorities as august as the Indian sports ministry, the AIFF, the AFC and FIFA have publicly expressed their expectation that India will once again take its place as an Asian footballing powerhouse in the medium term. This then marks a good time to look into what challenges the future holds for this Indian team, which of the current players will continue to play a role in the future, and what the scouts need to look for as they craft a team for the rest of the decade.
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The Asian Games revealed that Team India is a well organized unit that can play attractive and disciplined football. The team generally held its shape, defended not just in numbers but also tactically (successfully employing the offside trap on several occasions although that also contributed to several of the goals) and counter attacked successfully. Where they fell short was the physical and technical ability of individual players. The team, and in particular the defense was not fast, strong and in some cases fit enough to challenge the opposition players one-on-one. In addition, the midfield lacked the ability to hold the ball and did not display the creativity to originate waves of attacks. These are the areas the team needs to improve on, and the selectors ought to keep in mind as they scout for talent in the I-League.
In March 2011, India plays in the qualifiers of the AFC Challenge Cup against Turkmenistan, Pakistan and the winner of Taiwan/Laos. The top 2 teams go through to the 2012 AFC Challenge Cup. In late June and early July the team plays the home and away knock out stage of the WC2014 qualifiers against a higher ranked opponent. If it is able to stage an upset, it will play the 2nd round home and away matches between September 2011 and Feb 2012 in a 4 team group. The summer of 2012 will see the team play in the AFC Challenge Cup and the final round of the WC2014 qualifiers (for the top 10 Asian teams) if the team gets that far.
It would be unrealistic to expect the team to have improved sufficiently between now and the summer of 2012 to enter the top 10 in Asia, so let us ignore the WC2014 qualifiers for now and focus instead on the Asian Cup in 2015 and the WC2018 qualifiers (which take place in 2016). The team’s best shot at qualifying for the 2015 Asian Cup is to win the 2012 or 2014 AFC Challenge Cup. If the team is to be competitive in either the 2015 Asian Cup or WC2018 qualifiers, it had better be in the top 10 in Asia by then (in which case it should also be able to blast through all AFC Challenge Cup opposition).
It would not make sense to develop one team to help India qualify for the 2015 Asian Cup and then have all the players retire before the event, so it would behoove us to see who from the current team (including the players that were dropped due to injury – Anthony Pereira, Arindam Bhattacharya, and Samir Naik) is young enough to be competitive in 2015. Only those players ought to be named for the AFC Challenge Cup qualifiers in March, the WC2014 qualifiers and any other friendlies that India plays. The review below shows that the back half of the squad looks fine but the front half raises some concerns.
Gaolkeepers: In 2015, Subrata Paul will be 28, Subhashish Roychowdhury 30 and Arindam Bhattacharya 25. Goalkeepers go strong into their 30s as long as they keep fit so India ought to be fine in this department.
Defense: Amongst Bob Houghton’s first choice defenders, Gouramangi Moirangthem and Syed Rahim Nabi will be 29 in 2015, Anwar Ali will be 30, and Surkumar Singh 32. Not exactly young turks, but not quite past their prime either. Among the back up support, Deepak Mandal, Mahesh Gawli and Samir Naik will all be 35 then, so I suggest that they be thanked for their services to the country and asked to step aside. Rakesh Masih, NS Manju and Govin Singh Moirangthem will all be 27 – 28 so India will be able to name a defense that is only slightly older than the current defense. In any case, experience plays a big role in defensive ability and many defenders play at their best only in their early 30s. Team India can survive with these players if they are able to address the speed and fitness concerns.
Midfield: Climax Lawrence and Renedy Singh will both be north of 35 in 2015, so it is may be time for them to step aside for youth, their current form notwithstanding. Steve Dias and Mehrajuddin Wadoo will be 31 in 2015, NP Pradeep and Clifford Miranda 32 and Anthony Pereira 33. The only midfielder in the current squad on the right side of 30 will be Baldeep Singh at 28. Based on current form and with the aim of keeping the team reasonably young, it may behoove the team to drop Pradeep and Miranda as well, to form a midfield core with Dias, Baldeep, Pereira and Wadoo, though it is uncertain if any of these can play on the left flank. One possibility would be to bring Nabi up to the midfield given his ability to play as a left winger and the relative riches of youth available for defense, and that may serve to correct that imbalance. The midfield is one area that India ought to keep a vigilant look out for new talent with a focus on speed, strength and creative ability. Jagpreet Singh from JCT was in the original squad of 30 but got cut when the squad was pared down to 23, and he will be one person the selectors will continue to keep an eye on. This is also an area that the AIFF XI team ought to be looked at closely as should the under-16, under-19 national teams.
Forwards: The forwards paint an even bleaker picture than our midfield. Baichung Bhutia will be 38 in 2015, though he says he intends to keep playing until then. If he stays fit, he may be called on in the last 20 minutes of a game to come in with fresh legs. Sunil Chhetri will be 30 and Sushil Kumar 26, so they will likely be the team’s starters at the 2015 Asian Cup. Abhishek Yadav will be 34 and since he’s no Bhutia, I believe he ought to be dropped right away. Mohammed Rafi will be 33, a tad old, but it seems tough to drop a guy when he’s in the prime of his form, especially when he’s only just broken into the national team. I suggest that he be persisted with in the last 20 minutes just like Bhutia but only as long as he keeps performing in the I-League. The team desperately needs to unearth new strikers who are tall, fast, athletic and opportunistic. Baljit Singh Sahni, now with East Bengal, was another player in the original 30 that got cut in the final 23, and he’ll be 28 in 2015. This is the other area that the AIFF XI and the under-16 and under-19 teams need to be closely examined for talent.
A quick look at who will be available for the Indian team in 2018 causes more concerns, given the same argument that one does not want to be qualifying for the WC with a team that retires before the main event. Very few of the current players will be competitive at that time. Subrata will be 31 and Arindam will be 28 so the team should be strong on the goalkeeping front. In defense, the entire contingent will be between 30 and 33, so the team can rely on some of them for experience while it bloods youngsters. The only current midfielder that is likely to be around then is Baldeep Singh who will be 31, and upfront, Chhetri will be 33, so he can play off the bench like Bhutia is doing now and Sushil Kumar will be 29. Bottom line, the core of the 2018 team will have to be developed between now and then, which is why the AIFF XI is such a good idea. Clearly, the best model to develop a pipeline of players is for each I League first and second division club to manage competitive youth programs, but in the absence of that, the AIFF XI squad is the next best option. It is heartening to see that team competitive in their first season in the I-League (at the time of going to press, they rank 9th of the 14 teams though that position may fall when the national team members get back to their squads – Pune FC in particular should benefit).
For all my fellow fans of Indian football, this is where we can contribute to the renaissance. Let us watch the I-League games on TV, let us find the closest first or second division team and support them with our vocal chords and our wallets, let us discuss last nights game at work so that our co-workers realize there are sports in India other than cricket, and above all, let us keep an eye open for the next talent that will make it to the Indian team.
Final Reads : 1982 : Pts 8/10Editorial Score : Pts 9/10Total Pts : 17/20
