World Cup 2010: Group D Analysis

Another group with a few surprises , Germany loss being the most prominent.

World cup group D

All four teams – Germany, Australia, Serbia and Ghana are still in with a chance to qualify for the next round. This group promises great last matches as the winners will virtually be shooting out against each other and will have their future in their hand only.

Results

13 Jun 10		GER	4:0 (2:0)	AUS
13 Jun 10		SRB	0:1 (0:0)	GHA
18 Jun 10		GER	0:1 (0:1)	SRB
19 Jun 10		GHA	1:1 (1:1)	AUS

Fixtures

Ghana – Germany, 23 June, Jo’Berg, 11:50 (IST)

Australia – Serbia, 23 June, Nelspruit, 11:50 (IST)

Group Table

Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
Ghana	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
Germany	2	1	0	1	4	1	3
Serbia	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
Australia	2	0	1	1	1	5	1

Qualifying criteriaAccording the Regulations of the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa, the ranking of each team in each group will be determined as follows:

a) greatest number of points obtained in all group matches;

b) goal difference in all group matches;

c) greatest number of goals scored in all group matches.

If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above three criteria, their rankings will be determined as follows:

d) greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned;

e) goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned;

f) greater number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned;

g) drawing of lots by the FIFA Organising Committee.

Permutation and Combinations

Ghana

Ghana should really have bagged all 3 points against 10 men Australia going into there final game against Germany. However they still sit top of the table and this is how they can qualify:

• A stalemate or defeating Germany will take The Black Stars into the next round regardless of the other match.
• In case of a loss, Ghana can still qualify if :

a)Serbia draw with Australia .b)Australia, but goal difference of Ghana remains higher ( most likely scenario as Australia suffers from -4 GD).

Germany

The Germans after a great start against Australia succumbed to Serbia, but that has to be attributed to the bad refereeing which changed the complexion of the game.They sit at second spot but they have 4 goals scored in the first match at their disposal. A loss will be the tournaments biggest shock and dead end for them however taking other situations into consideration this is how they can qualify:

• Win against Ghana will give definitely bring them to the next round.
• A draw will be enough if Serbia do not win their game i.e. a draw or an Australian win will pave Germany the way towards last 16 (provided better Goal Difference which is Germany’s plus point).

Serbia

Serbia are lucky to still be in this competition, owing their Germany victory to the referee and missed penalty by Podolski. Bottom line is they are still in contention of a top 2 spot, and other than a loss to Australia they can qualify by:

• Beating Socceroos is the best option and they won’t have to depend upon others.
• A draw will keep the White Eagles alive in the tournament if Ghana beat Germany, so Ghana will end at 6 points and Germany 3 with Serbia at 4. A draw in both the matches will favor Germany because of higher Goal difference.

Australia

Australia’s World Cup campaign has been ill fated with 2 red cards in as many matches with key players Tim Cahill and Harry Kewell the recipients. They are not the favorites but can still qualify provided result in other game favors them. This is as follows:

• They have to win and then pray for Ghana to defeat Germany.
• They have to win by big margin if Ghana and Germany draw each other in which case Australia will be up against goal difference of Germans.
• Also if Germany are able to beat Ghana ,then Australia will be against a comparatively weaker GD to that of Ghana and it’s the best chance for the Socceroos to progress.

Predictions

I back Germany to beat Ghana by a good enough margin and Serbia to draw with Australia to send the White Eagles and 3 time champions Germany into next round.