5 reasons why Nadal will defeat Djokovic in the French Open semi-finals

The King: Rafael Nadal is eyeing a historic eight French Open title. (Getty Images)

Perhaps it has come a game too soon.

The semi-final between seven-time French Open champion Rafael Nadal and top seed Novak Djokovic will be nothing less than a final in any sense. It goes without saying that the winner of this game will go into the final with one hand already on the coveted trophy; only a miracle performance-of-a-lifetime by David Ferrer or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga can possibly stop this match’s winner from winning it all. The spectacle that this match promises to be makes it one of the must-watch sporting events of the year.

The stats tell us how close this game is going to be. Though there is no doubt that the last two years have seen a meteoric rise by Djokovic, the past record on clay shows Nadal boasting a greater head-to-head record, 12-3, against the Serb. However, Djokovic has had the upper hand in recent results. He defeated Nadal at the Monte Carlo Masters final in straight sets. Nadal, who is returning from an injury that plagued him for much of last year, has the motivation of a historic feat ahead of him; he can become the only man in the history of the game to win the French Open eight times. On the other hand, Djokovic is playing for a much awaited career Grand Slam that will end his draught at the French Open.

It’s a contest of two evenly matched, technically brilliant players, who have the stamina to play long games, longer sets and mammoth matches. Unfortunately, last year’s French Open final played between the two men was troubled by rain and played over two days, thus eliminating that element of stamina. It worked in Nadal’s favour but it will be thrilling for spectators all over the world to see a five-setter between them.

Here are five reasons why I’m betting on the Spaniard, in a match that threatens those who dare to choose:

1. It’s his territory:

A tennis match is always a question of skill – consistent backhands, strong forehands, those calculated passes and swiftness on court. But a final of a Grand Slam is more a matter of temperament. Considering this is a virtual final, the pressure will be no different on Friday. Nadal has been there and done that at the Roland Garros final – seven times, in fact. It’s a huge advantage, and what tilts the scales even further is the fact that his opponent has never gone all the way at the French Open. Clay has been Nadal’s fortress and if he gathers the initial momentum, he can rout Djokovic.

2. Peaking at the right moment:

Nadal’s first two games at this French Open were uncharacteristically marked by flaws. He dropped a set each in his first two games but has shown a remarkable recovery since then. He has not just won his subsequent matches, but despatched his opponents with ease, with the quarterfinal against Stanislas Wawrinka that he won 6-2, 6-3, 6-1 being a strong example of that. Nadal’s pounding groundstrokes in the last couple of matches have had the precision of an inspired man.

3. Attacking Djokovic’s backhand:

We saw a particularly lively forehand from Nadal in the quarterfinal. This powerful stroke broke down Wawrinka’s single-hand backhand, as it has done numerous times against another Swiss – Roger Federer.

“It’s difficult to be as strong with the backhand at shoulder height, which is where you have to hit it against Nadal again and again,” Wawrinka admitted after the match. Djokovic is exceptional at countering this ploy of Nadal’s and he managed to bully Nadal with his double-handed backhand in Monte Carlo. But Djokovic’s backhand was also the shot that cost him the title last year, as it leaked a truckload of errors throughout the final. It will be this shot that is likely to separate the two men on Friday; if Nadal can mix up his forehand enough to keep Djokovic off-balance in his backhand corner, he will have a good chance to elicit errors off the Serb’s normally strong wing.

4. Trial by fire:

Given the run of the two semi-finalists in this tournament, their history with each other and their respective skill sets, it is a huge probability that we will witness a gruelling five-setter, reminiscent of the six-hour long Australian Open final that Djokovic won in 2012. They will try to punish each other to the extent that one breaks down on the grand road to the final. Nadal’s seven-month long absence due to the knee-injury is a thing of the past if one is to go by his performances in the last two matches. He will rise to the challenge against Djokovic and exploit the advantage he holds on clay.

5. Motivation:

Djokovic has been emotionally stirred by the tragic demise of his former coach Jelena Gencic and has vowed to win the French Open as a tribute to her. The Serb has gone on record stating that this Grand Slam on clay is his biggest goal this year as he strives to complete a career Grand Slam. There is motivation enough for Djokovic, no doubt. However, across the net stands a man staring at the possibility of becoming the very best in the history of tennis with an opportunity to win his eighth French Open. Nadal will know that this match will make a big difference to his legacy and he will bring his best game. The prospect of defeating his supposed nemesis on the path to capturing a record-extending French crown is too alluring a prize for the King of clay.