Acapulco 2025 Final: Tomas Machac vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick | Mexican Open

Match Details

Fixture: (8) Tomas Machac vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Date: March 1, 2025

Tournament: Mexican Open 2025

Round: Final

Venue: Arena GNP Seguros, Acapulco, Mexico

Category: ATP 500

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $2,763,440

Live Telecast: US - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN+

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Tomas Machac vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina preview

Tomas Machac at the Dallas Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Eighth seed Tomas Machac will square off against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the final of the Mexican Open 2025.

Machac needed three sets to get past compatriot Jakub Mensik in his opener here. He had an easier time in the next two rounds and beat Daniel Altmaier and Learner Tien in straight sets to reach the semifinals, where Brandon Nakashima awaited him.

Machac fended off three break points in the sixth game of the first set to make it 3-3 and broke Nakashima's serve in the following game to put himself in the lead. He kept his nose in front until the end to take the set. The American was quick to regroup and conceded only one game en route to claiming the second set.

Machac dealt the first blow in the third set to go up a break only for Nakashima to peg him back immediately. However, the latter couldn't withstand the pressure while serving to stay in the match at 5-4. The Czech broke his opponent's serve one last time for a 6-4, 1-6, 6-4 win.

Davidovich Fokina rallied from a set down to beat Mattia Bellucci in the first round. He scored another three-set win to eliminate seventh seed Frances Tiafoe in the second round. He then comfortably beat Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez to book a semifinal showdown against Denis Shapovalov, who was on an eight-match winning streak.

Davidovich Fokina overcame a break deficit twice in the first set and then pipped Shapovalov in the tie-break to clinch the set. The Spaniard squandered his lead on two occasions in the second set but outplayed his opponent in the ensuing tie-break to register a 7-6 (3), 7-6 (1) win.

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Tomas Machac vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina head-to-head

Machac leads their rivalry 1-0, and he won their only match at last year's Shanghai Masters in three sets.

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Tomas Machac vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Tomas Machac	-150	+1.5 (-400)	Over 22.5 (-110)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	+120	-1.5 (+240)	Under 22.5 (-130)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

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Tomas Machac vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina prediction

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at the Delray Beach Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Machac overcame a second-set stumble to move past Nakashima and into his second career final. Davidovich Fokina ended Shapovalov's unbeaten run to reach his second final of the year, and the third of his career. He suffered a heartbreaking loss in the Delray Beach Open final nearly two weeks ago.

Davidovich Fokina had a couple of championship points in the final against Miomir Kecmanovic but failed to convert them, costing him the title. The Spaniard and Machac are aiming to win their maiden singles title at the ATP level.

Both are also in pretty solid form this season. Machac now has an 11-4 record this year, while Davidovich Fokina's record stands at 13-5. The former beat the latter when they tussled in Shanghai last year, and could one-up him yet again. The Czech's all-court style of play managed to trump his opponent's attacking tactics the last time.

Davidovich Fokina has lost from winning positions a few times in the past, and his recent meltdown in the Delray Beach final wasn't the first time his nerves got the better of him. While the Spaniard is in good form, especially over the last few weeks, Machac tends to remain more composed compared to him and it could prove to be the difference in the end.

Pick: Tomas Machac to win in three sets.