Analysis of the ATP's top prospects in 2013

2013 Australian Open - Day 6

We are now officially half way through the tennis season, both in number of tournaments played and weeks into the season. So it seems to be a good time to analyse how some of the players are faring in the year to date rankings. Looking at the top of the tree, things are pretty much as you would expect. The Big Four and David Ferrer are all comfortably ahead of the chasing pack which in itself contains all the usual suspects like Tomas Berdych and Jo Wilfred Tsonga.

What’s quite interesting though is how the new generation is faring. Much has been said about how players are expected to establish themselves as major contenders at the age of 25 instead of 20-21 a decade ago. Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro all won their first major championship before they were 22. Now this suggestion seems ludicrous. The sheer physical fitness that Nadal, Djokovic and Andy Murray have means that a young gun would have to win in straight sets if they are to have any chance of upsetting the applecart.

So with that in mind, just how is the perceived next generation faring after half the year. Any player who is 23 or younger will be accounted for. Here’s the top five.

5. Bernard Tomic – 2013 Ranking 47

He’s still only 20 years old but we still feel that Tomic already has the feel of a player who is wasting away his substantial potential. After winning two junior Majors and reaching the quarter finals of Wimbledon two years ago, the Australian was tipped for stardom. Then came the endless stream of controversies. Numerous disputes with the Australian tennis governing body and his father, who is now banned from attending any Grand Slam tournament, accusations of ‘tanking’ at the US Open, spats with journalists, driving offences and drunken nights out have turned him into the Mario Balotelli of the tennis world, someone whose talent is undeniable but is also being held back by his impetuous behaviour.

All of this has undoubtedly affected his performances on court. What’s worrying though for Tomic is that he appears to still think he’s better than he actually is. This is why he continues to struggle on the circuit. At the lesser tournaments, he can’t motivate himself enough to perform against opponents ranked between 75 and 100 in the world. When his mind is on it, his record isn’t bad. He’s lost to Federer in the last two Australian Opens and he captured his first ATP title in Sydney where he beat Kevin Anderson. The difference is those other tournaments where Tomic is failing at the moment. The man he beat in that final is currently 16th in the 2013 rankings, Tomic is a lonely 47th. If he can actually put together a string of performances his talent deserves, this will most certainly improve but at present, this already looks like a huge waste of a career.

4. Jerzy Janowicz – 2013 Ranking 44

2013 French Open - Day Seven

The massive Pole is still living off his miraculous run to the Paris Masters final late last year. 500 precious ranking points have seen Janowicz rise to his highest ranking of 22 this week. But this year, Jerzy has failed to really push on with his career. At this point in his career, the big serving giant appears to be playing in bursts. A string of one win – one loss tournaments were the norm until Rome, where he knocked out Tsonga and Gasquet before losing to Federer in straight sets.

Janowicz’s mediocrity this year won’t affect his ranking too much at this stage as almost all his points came at the latter stage of the year. But if wants to establish himself as a future top 10 player, he has to start at least reaching the quarter finals of 500 events minimum instead of the second rounds. He is still yet to pass the third round of a Grand Slam and is awaiting his first ATP title too. Wimbledon will be an interesting tournament to examine Janowicz’s progress. He reached the third round last year but was fortunate that he didn’t have to play Berdych last year in the process. Being seeded this year should allow him to do the same but without a win on grass this year, this is the acid test for the Pole.

3. Grigor Dimitrov – 2013 Ranking 22

AEGON Championships - Day Three

‘Baby Fed’ or Mr. Sharapova, whatever you prefer, is finally starting to fulfill his potential. He’s also one of the few players on the circuit whose year ranking is better than his actual ranking of 31. Some of Dimitrov’s play this year has been sensational. He pushed Murray and Nadal all the way on their respective favourite surfaces and famously beat Djokovic at Madrid in May. His shot making is up with the best and on his day can challenge any member of the Big Four. What’s more promising for Dimitrov is that ‘his day’ is becoming more frequent by the day as well.

There are still concerns though for the Bulgarian. His mental toughness is under scrutiny after his limp wristed effort at Roland Garros and the way he was completely outsmarted on grass against Lleyton Hewitt suggests that he still has a lot to learn about the mental side of the game, such as not using too much energy too soon. In my view, Dimitrov is most suited of all the prospects to reach a Grand Slam final the quickest. If he plays all out for a prolonged period of time, he can beat anyone. Unlike Tomic, off the court he is incredibly popular with fans and players alike – judging by the way the ball girls were drooling over him in Queen’s, he could be the next Bjorn Borg – and his discipline cannot be questioned. He just needs to improve his consistency in his head and with the racket. If he can do this he will be a success, I’m certain.

2. Milos Raonic – 2013 Ranking 17

Davis Cup - Italy v Canada

Ever since his breakout performance at the Australian Open in 2011, the big serving Canadian has been a consistent fixture in the top 16 in the world. And almost all of Roanic’s success has been down to that colossal serve. 2012 saw Milos serve more aces per match and win a higher percentage of service games than any other player on tour. The problem for him is that with the strength of the return game the way it is at the moment, Raonic’s best performance at a Grand Slam, the fourth round, is normally as far as he can go because he would normally run into a Djokovic, Murray or Ferrer whose returns are good enough to nullify his serve.

In order for Raonic to progress, he must improve his groundstroke consistency and movement so he can last with baseliners once the ball comes back. Like Janowicz, his massive height will make this difficult but at this stage he is at a much more advanced stage than the Pole. Raonic has struggled somewhat this year with fitness which has caused some erratic results. He still won his third straight title at San Jose but hasn’t beat a top 10 player this year. His problems on grass were reinforced as he lost both of his matches to Gael Monfils and Ivan Dodig, so don’t expect any groundbreaking performances next week. But when the tennis caravan turns back towards the hard courts of America, Raonic will be hoping this will be the time he can at last make a breakthrough into the top 10.

1. Kei Nishikori – 2013 Ranking 13

2013 Australian Open Previews

When people talk about prospects, names like Raonic and Dimitrov often are bounded about, but Kei Nishikori is often overlooked simply because he’s been around for a long time. But the fact is that Nishikori is still a young man in tennis terms and will only turn 24 at the end of the year. Like Ferrer, his consistent baseline play means that he can beat anyone if they are even slightly misfiring. He just needs to cut down on the number of unforced errors that sometimes creep into his game if he is to become a top 10 player – just one place above his current ranking of 11. He doesn’t have a weak surface and has reached the quarter finals of the Australian Open in the past. If he can maximise his ability like Ferrer, he has the talent and extra power to become a threat to the top players.

Nishikori’s problem is that also like Ferrer, he is so small compared to the giants or Raonic and Janowicz, and so doesn’t have the weapons that are often cited as the tools to beat a top player. Although he has the all round game needed to be stay at the top end of the game, he simply doesn’t have the power needed to beat a Djokovic or Nadal in the semi finals of a Grand Slam when these sort of players just come up with shots that are beyond extra ordinary. Nishikori may not be the next Djokovic or Murray but he certainly can become the next Ferrer. Someone who is always there making life for players like Dimitrov hell.

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