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Match Details
Fixture: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs (19) Madison Keys
Date: January 25, 2025
Tournament: Australian Open 2025
Round: Final
Venue: Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia
Category: Grand Slam
Surface: Hard (Outdoor)
Prize Money: A$ 96,500,000
Live Telecast: USA - ESPN & Tennis Channel | UK - Eurosport | India - Sony Sports & Sony Liv
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys preview
Aryna Sabalenka will aim to win her third successive Australian Open title and standing between her and the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup is Madison Keys.
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Sabalenka enjoyed a terrific start to the 2025 season as she won the Brisbane International. She started her title defense at the Australian Open with a 6-3, 6-2 win over Sloane Stephens and followed it up by beating Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-4, 7-5.
Further straight-set wins over Clara Tauson and 14th seed Mirra Andreeva saw the Belarusian reach the quarterfinals. Here, Sabalenka overcame a stern challenge from 27th seed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (6-2, 2-6, 6-3) to set up a semifinal clash with close friend Paula Badosa.
The 26-year-old was broken early in the match but eventually bounced back to take the first set 6-4. She dominated the second to register a 6-4, 6-2 win and reach her third straight Australian Open final.
Madison Keys entered the Melbourne Major after winning her seventh WTA 500 title at the Adelaide International. The 29-year-old's first two matches at the Grand Slam were contrasting, as she beat Ann Li 6-4, 7-5 before surviving a huge scare from Elena-Gabriela Ruse (7-6(1), 2-6, 7-5).
Keys then ousted tenth seed Danielle Collins 6-4, 6-4 before upsetting Elena Rybakina 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 to book her place in the quarterfinals. There, the American faced 28th seed Elina Svitolina and found herself a set down. However, she staged a fine comeback and won the match 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 to reach her third semifinal at the Australian Open.
Keys was up against Iga Swiatek in the semifinals and did not get off to the best of starts, as she lost the opening set 5-7. However, the 29-year-old bounced back in scintillating fashion and looked to bagel the Pole in the second set. While Swiatek did pull a game back, Keys eventually took the second set 6-1 to force the match into a decider.
The American found herself a break down during the tail-end of the final set but she bounced back, saved a match point, and a tiebreak eventually ensued after a Swiatek double fault. The Pole led early in the tiebreak but Keys produced some fine hitting to register a 5-7, 6-1, 7-6(8) win and reach her first Grand Slam final since 2017.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys head-to-head
Sabalenka currently leads 4-1 in the head-to-head between the two. Their last encounter came in the fourth round of the China Open, with the Belarusian winning 6-4, 6-3.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys odds
All odds sourced from Oddschecker.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys prediction
Given her current form, Sabalenka will be heavily favored to come out on top but Keys will be in high spirits after beating Swiatek, so she cannot be written off.
The Belarusian has served 12 aces so far during the Australian Open but it's her hard-hitting that has been the highlight. Sabalenka's temperament has massively increased over the past couple of years and combine this with her aggression, Keys will have a tough task on her hands.
The American has served 22 aces so far at the Melbourne Major, and will look to fetch more of those in the final. Keys is known to be one of the most powerful hitters on tour and she produced some clean hitting in her semifinal. The American will look to maintain that intensity while also producing some good returns, which helped her against Rybakina.
We could see a thrilling fixture at Melbourne Park but Sabalenka's quality makes it hard to see her not win a third straight Australian Open title.
Pick: Sabalenka to win in three sets
