ATP Cup 2021: Rafael Nadal vs Alex de Minaur preview, head-to-head & prediction

Match details

Fixture: [ESP] Rafael Nadal vs [AUS] Alex de Minaur

Date: 2 February 2021

Tournament: ATP Cup 2021

Round: Group stage

Venue: Melbourne, Australia

Surface: Outdoor hardcourt

Match timing: Not before 7:00 pm Melbourne time, 1:30 pm IST

Prize money: AUD 4,500,000

Live telecast: Tennis Channel - USA | Eurosport - India

Rafael Nadal vs Alex de Minaur preview

Spain kick off their 2021 ATP Cup campaign against hosts Australia in a repeat of last edition’s semifinal, where the Aussies suffered a 3-0 defeat.

Like last time, Rafael Nadal and Alex de Minaur are once again the top-ranked players of their respective nations. The two will square off against each other in the evening fixture on Tuesday, the 2nd of February.

However, it is pertinent to note that the Spain vs Australia fixture will first see Roberto Bautista Agut taking on John Millman. As such, Nadal’s match against De Minaur will potentially be a decider.

This will be Rafael Nadal's first competitive match since his agonizing semifinal defeat to Daniil Medvedev at the ATP Finals in November. The Spaniard did recently play at the Adelaide event, where he defeated Dominic Thiem in straight sets, but there's a big difference in an exhibition and a competitive match.

That said, Nadal showed quite a few glimpses of his power and timing against Thiem, often finding acute angles at will. The World No. 2 will hope that he carries that form to his match against Alex de Minaur.

Alex de Minaur

When the two played against each other at last year’s ATP Cup, Rafael Nadal found himself under the gun early. The young Aussie gave Nadal the runaround for the first half of the match, and it wasn’t until late in the second set that the Spaniard finally managed to break his opponent's serve.

Going by Alex de Minaur’s form in 2021 so far, the youngster could well pose an even bigger threat to Rafael Nadal this time around. The 21-year-old has significantly improved his attacking game, and that was visible during his run at the Antalya Open where he won the title while dropping just one set all week.

Rafael Nadal vs Alex de Minaur head-to-head

Rafael Nadal leads Alex de Minaur 3-0 in the head-to-head. His three victories have come at Wimbledon (2018), Australian Open (2019) and the ATP Cup (2020).

Rafael Nadal vs Alex de Minaur prediction

Rafael Nadal

Alex de Minaur’s backhand has improved considerably from last year. He can now look to go toe-to-toe with Rafael Nadal in the crosscourt duels, while also changing things up on occasion with the down-the-line redirection.

Having said that, Nadal will look to open up the court with his heavy forehand, both crosscourt and down the line. De Minaur has arguably the fastest pair of legs on tour, but he will need to be precise with his court positioning in order to avoid giving the Spaniard the space he needs to dictate rallies.

The Aussie is a tactically astute player, and he often finds ways to dominate even the most seasoned pros on tour. He is expected to test Nadal to the limit, but it is unlikely that the Mallorcan will lose his first competitive match of the year.

Prediction: Rafael Nadal to win in three sets.