ATP Finals 2023 final: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (1) Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner

Date: November 19, 2023

Tournament: ATP Finals 2023

Round: Final

Venue: Pala Alpitour, Turin, Italy

Category: Year-ending championships

Surface: Indoor hardcourt

Prize money: $15,000,000

Live telecast: USA – Tennis Channel | UK – Amazon Prime Video | Canada - TSN

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Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner preview

Novak Djokovic at the ATP Finals

Top seed Novak Djokovic will take on fourth seed Jannik Sinner in the final of the ATP Finals on Sunday, November 19.

Djokovic started the year-end tournament with a 7-6(4), 6-7(1), 6-3 win over eighth seed Holger Rune before losing 7-5, 6-7(5), 7-6(2) to Sinner, He then triumphed 7-6(5), 4-6, 6-1 over ninth seed Hubert Hurkacz to confirm his place in the semifinals.

Here, the Serb faced Carlos Alcaraz and won the first set 6-3 after breaking the Spaniard's serve in the eighth game. He continued his dominance in the second set and went on to win it 6-2 to seal his place in the final of the ATP Finals for the ninth time in his career.

Sinner started the year-end championships with a comprehensive 6-4, 6-4 win over sixth seed Stefanos Tsitsipas. He followed it up by beating Djokovic 7-5, 6-7(5), 7-6(2) before triumphing 6-2, 5-7, 6-4 over Holger Rune to win the Green Group and qualify for the semifinals in Turin.

Here, the Italian was up against third seed Daniil Medvedev and won the first set 6-3 after breaking the Russian's serve in the fourth game. The second set was a tightly contested affair, with neither player being broken on their serve. A tiebreak ensued and Medvedev won it to force the match into a decider.

Sinner dominated the final set and won it 6-1 to reach the final of the ATP Finals, becoming the first Italian player to do so in singles or doubles.

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Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner head-to-head

Djokovic leads 3-1 in the head-to-head against Sinner. However, the Italian came out on top in the most recent meeting between the two in the ongoing ATP finals, winning 7-5, 6-7(5), 7-6(2).

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Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games (Over & Under)
Novak Djokovic	-175	-1.5 (+135)	Over 23.5 (-110)
Jannik Sinner	+150	+1.5 (-190)	Under 23.5 (-130)

All odds are sourced from BETMGM.

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Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner prediction

Djokovic may have lost the last time he played Sinner but his form, experience, and his recent performance against Carlos Alcaraz makes him the favorite entering the match. That said, Sinner has been playing some terrific tennis over the past few months and will be in good spirits after winning each of his matches so far in Turin.

Djokovic has won 174 out of 225 matches (77.3%) on his first serve so far in the ATP Finals, serving 38 aces. He has also hit 129 winners compared to 35 unforced errors.

The Serb's all-round game will no doubt be difficult for Sinner to handle, and we could expect the Italian to face a stiff challenge on his serve, given the World No. 1's returning in his semifinal against Alcaraz.

Sinner has had incredible numbers on his first serve so far in the ATP Finals, having won 179 out of 216 points (82.9%) with 45 aces to his name. The Italian has also produced 123 winners compared to 39 unforced errors.

Sinner will rely heavily on his serve, which will be put to the test by Djokovic. He will look to play aggressively from the baseline and maybe put the Serb on the backfoot.

However, in a match like this, composure will be crucial. Djokovic has been very well known for his mentality. Sinner is looking mentally stronger than before at the time and will have the crowd on his side. If the Italian can maintain his composure, he has a fair chance of edging out the Serb again and winning the ATP Finals.

Pick: Sinner in three sets.