ATP Finals 2023: Men's singles group analysis, preview & prediction ft. Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz potential final

All roads lead to the ATP Finals in Turin as the 2023 tennis season draws to a close. The elite year-end tournament, featuring the sport's top eight singles and doubles teams, starts on Sunday (November 12).

This year's edition features a formidable field featuring former winners Novak Djokovic, Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev. World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz and No. 10 Holger Rune are making their tournament debut. Alcaraz qualified for last year's edition but had to pull out because of injury.

Only four of the eight players that played the 2022 edition have qualified for the 2023 ATP Finals. With the draw for the year-end championships having been released on Thursday, let's have a detailed look at the two groups, the two likely semifinals and the probable champion:

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ATP Finals 2023 Green Group: Novak Djokovic looking for record seventh title

Novak Djokovic

Six-time champion and World No. 1 Novak Djokovic will gun for a record seventh ATP Finals title. He has been clubbed in Green Group, which also includes Jannik Sinner, 2019 champion Stefanos Tsitsipas and debutant Holger Rune.

Djokovic (51-5 in 2023) has a formidable record at the season-ending event, winning 46 of his 63 matches. Leading Alcaraz by 1490 points, the Serb only needs one more win to end the year as the World No. 1 for a record-extending eighth time.

Even if he goes winless - which he hasn't since his competition debut in 2007 - Alcaraz will need to win all five matches to usurp the Serb and become No. 1.

Djokovic has a winning record against two of the three players in his group. The Serb is 3-0 against Sinner, 11-2 against Tsitsipas and 2-2 against Rune. Considering the form the Serb is in, 18-0 since losing to Alcaraz in the Wimbledon final, expect him to go undefeated to the semifinals.

Sinner, meanwhile, is coming off a career-best 57-14 season to qualify for his first ATP Finals. He did play in 2021 but as an alternate. The 22-year-old Italian, though, has a losing record against all three players in his group. He has lost both his meetings with Rune, is 2-5 against Tsitsipas and has lost all three matches with Djokovic. He's expected to finish with the wooden spoon.

Tsitsipas has a losing record against Djokovic and Rune (0-2). The Greek is 51-22 on the season but has struggled for consistency. So, he could struggle to finish in the top two.

Rune (43-22) has also lost 22 times this season but has a perfect record against Sinner and Tsitsipas. He has also beaten Djokovic twice in four meetings. Considering the same, expect the young Dane to finish second in the group, behind Djokovic.

Predicted semifinalists: Novak Djokovic and Holger Rune

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ATP Finals 2023 Red Group: Carlos Alcaraz seeking maiden title

Carlos Alcaraz

World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz headlines a tough Red Group featuring former champions Alexander Zverev (2018, 2021) and Medvedev (2020), and Andrey Rublev.

Alcaraz is coming off a fabulous 2023 campaign, going 63-10, winning six titles, including his maiden crown at Wimbledon. However, the Spaniard has lost twice in his last four matches. That includes an opening-round exit to Roman Safiullin in Paris, which has realistically ended his chances of ending the year as the World No. 1.

Nevertheless, the Spaniard won't be short of motivation to do well in his maiden ATP Finals appearance. His sternest challenge is expected to come from the in-form Medvedev, who has gone 64-16 in 2023 and won five titles.

Alcaraz has split his four matches with the Russian, winning twice in three meetings this year. Medvedev, like Alcaraz, is also coming off a surprise opening-round loss in Paris and could fall to the Spaniard for the third time this year.

The Spaniard is also likely to face a stern challenge from Zverev, with whom he has a 3-3 head-to-head record. However, Alcaraz will take confidence from his two wins against the German in 2023. Expect the Spaniard to prevail again. Alcaraz, who has never met Rublev, should win the group.

Meanwhile, Medvedev and Zverev could engage in a titanic tussle for the second semifinalist spot in the group. Medvedev is 10-7 against the two-time ATP Finals champion, who's 53-26 on the season. Expect the Russian to prevail in a slugfest that could go the distance.

Medvedev also has a commanding 6-2 lead over his compatriot Rublev, and the trend should continue with a win for the former. Rublev, meanwhile, who's 56-23 in 2023, has a losing 3-5 record against Zverev. The Russian is likely to end last in the group, but might not go winless.

It's a very tight group to call, but expect Alcaraz and Medvedev to finish in the top two.

Predicted semifinalists: Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev

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Semifinal predictions

First semifinal

Djokovic is expected to meet Medvedev in the first semifinal. He has a 10-5 record against the Russian, including a win in this year's US Open final. Expect the Serb to take the win.

Second semifinal

Alcaraz and Rune are expected to contest for a final spot in the other semifinal. The Spaniard has a 2-1 head-to-head lead and won their last meeting in the Wimbledon quarterfinals this year. Having enjoyed a more consistent season, Alcaraz is more likely to emerge triumphant.

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Final Prediction

Djokovic and Alcaraz should meet in a dream 1-2 ATP Finals final. Going by Djokovic's current form, it's tough to pick anybody against him, but if there's one player who can stop the Serb, it's Alcaraz.

It's a bit of a bold prediction, but Alcaraz should avenge his Cincinnati final defeat by claiming his maiden ATP Finals title and break a 2-2 head-to-head tie with Djokovic. Of course, that might not be enough for Alcaraz to end the year as the World No. 1, but the Spaniard will not mind.

Prediction: Alcaraz to beat Djokovic in three sets