ATP Finals 2023: Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (1) Novak Djokovic vs (2) Carlos Alcaraz

Date: November 18, 2023

Tournament: ATP Finals 2023

Round: Semifinal

Venue: Pala Alpitour, Turin, Italy

Category: Year-ending championships

Surface: Indoor hardcourt

Prize money: $15,000,000

Live telecast: USA – Tennis Channel | UK – Amazon Prime Video | Canada - TSN

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Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz preview

Novak Djokovic at the 2023 ATP Finals.

Defending champion Novak Djokovic will lock horns with World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals of the 2023 ATP Finals on Saturday.

Djokovic started the group stage with a three-set victory over Holger Rune. He then suffered a three-set loss against Jannik Sinner, making his final group tie against Hubert Hurkacz a must-win match for him.

Both defended their serves quite well in the first set as neither came close to a break point. Djokovic pulled ahead in the ensuing tie-break as he lost just a solitary point in it to take the opener. A poor service game by the Serb cost him the second set as Hurkacz capitalized on his mistakes to level the match.

Djokovic recovered spectacularly from the second set stumble as he dished out a breadstick in the third set to register a 7-6 (1), 4-6, 6-1 win. As he needed three sets to win, his fate was also dependent on Sinner winning his match against Rune, which he did.

Alcaraz's debut in Turin commenced on a sour note as he lost to Alexander Zverev in his first group match. He got back on track with a win over Andrey Rublev and faced Daniil Medvedev in his final group tie.

Alcaraz almost went down an early break in the first set, but he saved a couple of break points to remain on serve. He then secured a break of serve in the seventh game to go 4-3 up. The Spaniard kept Medvedev at bay and went on to clinch the set.

Alcaraz kept swinging for the fences and didn't take his foot off the pedal in the second set either. His persistence resulted in a breakthrough as he bagged the last three games of the match to score a 6-4, 6-4 victory.

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Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz head-to-head

The two have faced off four times before this, with the head-to-head tied at 2-2. Djokovic won their previous encounter at the 2023 Cincinnati Masters in three sets.

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Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Novak Djokovic
Carlos Alcaraz

(Odds will be added once they're available)

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Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz prediction

Carlos Alcaraz at the 2023 ATP Finals.

Djokovic's had a rough week so far with all of his matches going the distance. But he's known to up the ante at the drop of a hat, so one can't read too much into his struggles here so far.

Alcaraz has gotten better and better throughout the week. While his level has improved considerably, finding a way to beat Djokovic in these conditions is going to be a tall order, even for him.

Their last two encounters have been extremely competitive. Djokovic won the Cincinnati final, their most recent duel, after saving a match point. Alcaraz had the last laugh at Wimbledon before that.

Djokovic's prior experience and expertise in competing indoors give him an advantage. Alcaraz is a quick learner, but the Serb's still got a few tricks left in him and should be able to stage another escape act to reach the final.

Pick: Novak Djokovic to win in three sets.