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The ATP Finals 2024 will commence from November 10 and conclude with the final on November 17. Defending champion Novak Djokovic, the most successful player in the history of the tournament with seven titles, took himself off the board this time. He recently announced his withdrawal and wrapped up his season due to a lingering injury.
Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz, Casper Ruud, Alex de Minaur, and Andrey Rublev make up the elite eight at this year's edition. Stefanos Tsitsipas, who was a regular fixture since his debut in 2018, will only be present as an alternate this time.
Players will now make one last push as the lengthy season is about to wind up. With a bunch of points and a record prize money up for grabs, they're always eager to put their best foot forward at the year-end championships. On that note, here's a look at how the singles draw could unfold at this year's ATP Finals:
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Ilie Nastase Group: Jannik Sinner aiming to wrap up an impressive season with a title at the ATP Finals
Players: (1) Jannik Sinner, (4) Daniil Medvedev, (5) Taylor Fritz, and (7) Alex de Minaur
Expected semifinalists: Jannik Sinner, Daniil Medvedev
Sinner has been the man to beat this year, with an impressive 65-6 record. His haul of seven trophies this season include his first two Majors titles at the Australian Open and the US Open. He also won three Masters 1000 titles, along with two ATP 500 titles. He also ascended to the top of the rankings for the first time, and will end the season atop the summit as well.
A runner-up at last year's ATP Finals, Sinner will be keen to hoist the winner's trophy this time. He has been drawn in the Ilie Nastase Group along with Medvedev, Fritz, and de Minaur. He has a 7-7 record against the Russian, and has won seven of their last eight matches, including all four of their hardcourt meetings this year.
Medvedev is a former ATP Finals champion, though he seems to have regressed a little in terms of gameplay this year. Aside from his regular losses to Sinner, he hasn't faced his fellow group members this year. He has a 6-3 record against de Minaur, and won his only prior match against Fritz two years ago in Cincinnati.
Medvedev has a 45-19 record to his name this year, and is the only player to enter the tournament without a title under his belt. Fritz has a 49-21 record for the season, and has claimed two titles thus far. His biggest achievement was reaching the final of the US Open, which he lost to Sinner. The Italian enjoys a 2-1 advantage in their rivalry.
Fritz also trails de Minaur 3-5 in their head-to-head. The latter is making his ATP Finals debut, and a 47-16 record with two titles has helped him do the same. While he has the upper hand against the American, he is Sinner's punching bag, having lost all seven of their encounters.
De Minaur has made some inroads in his rivalry against Medvedev, and while he trails him 6-3, he has won three of their last five matches. Sinner is definitely making it through this group given his form and record against the other three players. Fritz could be the second player to join him in the last four, if he manages to one-up the Australian.
Predicted semifinalists: Jannik Sinner, Taylor Fritz
John Newcombe Group: Alexander Zverev vying to capture his third ATP Finals crown
Players: (2) Alexander Zverev, (3) Carlos Alcaraz, (6) Casper Ruud, and (8) Andrey Rublev
Expected semifinalists: Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz
Zverev's consistent results has helped him register a 66-20 record this year, a career-best in terms of match wins in a single season for him. He also leads the tour with respect to the number of matches won this year. Both of his individual titles this year came at the Masters 1000 level, first at the Italian Open, and more recently at the Paris Masters.
Zverev has already won the ATP Finals twice. He claimed his maiden title at the year-end championships in 2018, and followed it up with another win in 2021. If the three-year pattern holds up, then this will be his time to shine. He has been drawn in the John Newcombe Group with Alcaraz, Ruud, and Rublev.
Ruud has been absolutely dreadful over the last couple of months. He is currently on a four-match losing streak, and has lost eight of his last nine matches. This has been a disappointing turnaround for him as he was one of the most in-form players during the first half of the season.
Ruud registered 40 of his 49 wins during the first six months of the season. Furthermore, he has a combined 4-12 record against his fellow group members. Given his form, he's unlikely to improve his head-to-head against them this time around.
Despite a 43-23 record this year, Rublev has blown hot and cold all year long. He didn't win a match at the Shanghai Masters and the Paris Masters, two of the biggest events towards the end of the season. While this is his fifth appearance at the ATP Finals, he has advanced beyond the group stage only once.
Rublev has a 5-2 winning record against Ruud, and is tied 1-1 with Alcaraz. Zverev will be his biggest obstacle in the group given the German leads him 6-3. As for the Spaniard, he has a 52-11 record this year. He won the French Open and Wimbledon, along with the Indian Wells Masters. A semifinalist at last year's ATP Finals, he's likely to replicate the feat this time as well.
Alcaraz has a perfect 4-0 record against Ruud, and his rivalry with Zverev is deadlocked at 5-5. While he has struggled in fast conditions, he should be able to beat Ruud and Rublev at the very least, and qualify for the semifinals in second place. The German is likely to win all three of his matches to top the group.
Predictions for the ATP Finals knockout rounds
While Alcaraz has handed Sinner three of his six losses this year, the fast conditions should give the Italian an upper hand this time. Fritz has won his last three matches against Zverev but the latter will be feeling more confident this time given his recent form, and could snap his losing skid against him.
With the top two seeds in the final, the World No. 1 will be expected to end his season on a high. While Zverev does lead Sinner 4-2 in the head-to-head, the latter won their only match in Cincinnati this year. Given the Italian's form, he will be the favorite if they lock horns in the final.
Predictions for the semifinals:
Jannik Sinner def. Carlos Alcaraz
Alexander Zverev def. Taylor Fritz
Prediction for the final:
Jannik Sinner def. Alexander Zverev
