With No. 1 sealed for the Djoker, what's in store for the ATP rankings?

Djokovic has it in the bag, but Murray is in with a chance for #2

The last main tour event, the BNP Paribas Masters, is underway in Paris and this means it is time to take a look at the year-end rankings.

Admittedly, there is a little less speculation on our hands this year. With the kind of season Novak Djokovic has had, the year-end No. 1 spot was locked up back in September.

He has not dropped points in any tournament this year and has reached the final of every tournament since the quarter-final loss to Ivo Karlovic in Doha, back in the Mesozoic era (January). This is an incredible achievement and he is deservedly at the top of the pile. With 9 titles, he is right now sitting pretty at 15785 points.

That is nearly twice as many points Roger Federer has at No. 2.

However, Djokovic is the tip of the iceberg and plenty of room exists for speculation within the rest of the ranks.

Here is how the current ATP top 8 line-up and here are the points they are defending for the remainder of the season.

Rank	Player	Current Points	Defending
1	Novak Djokovic	15785	2500
2	Roger Federer	8250	1180
3	Andy Murray	8070	380
4	Stan Wawrinka	6585	490
5	Tomas Berdych	4730	560
6	Rafael Nadal	4630	0
7	Kei Nishikori	4440	760
8	David Ferrer	3945	180

As you can see, Djokovic is so far ahead that even with 2500 points to defend if somehow he was to inexplicably lose every match from here on, he would still be leagues ahead of the rest.

The battle for No. 2 is, however, still very hot. And Andy Murray has an edge over here.

Last year, the Scot was recovering from a back surgery and had a deplorable outing in the World Tour Finals. He won just one match in the round-robin stage and was soundly thrashed by Federer 6-0 6-1 in their match. He lost early in the Paris Masters as well, going down in the quarter-finals to Novak Djokovic.

Federer had an equally poor outing in Paris, losing in the same stage to Milos Raonic. But he played at his sizzling best in the World Tour Finals. Apart from the rout of Murray, he also won his matches against Nishikori and Raonic with ease.

The semi-finals was one of the best matches of the 2014 ATP tour as Federer saved match-points on the way to a victory against Stan Wawrinka. Unfortunately, he injured his back in the course of the match and pulled out against the highly anticipated final encounter against Djokovic.

As a result, Federer is defending 1180 points against Murray’s 380. Murray stands to gain plenty even with marginally better performances in the remaining tournaments while Federer cannot afford any slip-ups like the one he had in Shanghai.

If Murray wins in Paris then he is virtually guaranteed the year end No. 2 spot. On the other hand, even if Federer wins in Paris and Murray does not progress beyond the R32, Murray will still be in with a reasonable chance to claim the second position.

The Scotsman’s shoes are more comfortable at the moment.

In fact, Federer will have to be wary of his compatriot as well. Wawrinka has a bit of open seas on either side of himself. But he also is not defending much points. If he wins in Paris, and Federer does not proceed beyond the quarters then he is only one additional win away from dislodging Federer from No. 3. Federer’s shoes are becoming increasingly unenviable.

Nadal was missing in action this time last year which means he has a good chance to gain some mileage on the top 4 for next season. His form has been on a slight upswing since the Asian and indoor swing and he can gain a bunch of useful points in the remaining tournaments.

He is in Djokovic’s half and Wawrinka’s quarter in Paris – a tough draw. Based on recent form and the conditions on offer, it might be a little optimistic to expect him to go beyond the semis. A lot also depends on whom he is grouped with in the year end finals. If he ends up in the group with Federer, Murray and Djokovic (a plausible scenario), then he might not walk away with much.

But the good thing is that any number of wins is a net positive. He is only 100 points behind Berdych and the Czech is defending quite a bit of points. Nadal should definitely end the year ahead of Berdych as World No. 5.

Nishikori and Ferrer round up our top 8. Arguably, the road ahead is tougher for Nishikori. He was a semi-finalist in Paris in 2014 and won 2 round-robin matches in the World Tour Finals.

As I am writing this, he has completed progressed into the R16 after a three set win against Jeremy Chardy. Ferrer is at the same stage in the tournament as well. Ferrer is in Federer’s quarter while Nishikori is in Murray’s.

If both fail at the same stage then Ferrer gains on Nishikori. Admittedly, Ferrer is no longer the challenger he used to be. But if Nishikori’s fitness and form do not hold up, then he might find himself dislodged from the 7th spot by the Spaniard.

My prediction for the year end top 8 –

Rank	Player	Movement (Places)
1	Novak Djokovic	--
2	Andy Murray	^ (1)
3	Roger Federer	Ë? (1)
4	Stan Wawrinka	--
5	Rafael Nadal	^ (1)
6	Tomas Berdych	Ë? (1)
7	Kei Nishikori	--
8	David Ferrer	--