Australian Open 2010: Men's Draw to be Full of Surprises

The first look at the Men’s Singles draw for this Australian Open had a different feeling this time around. Until last year, all I was concerned was in which half of the draw would Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray fall in—in Roger Federer’s half or Rafael Nadal’s half.

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Most predictions were usually taken for granted that the Big-4 will be the ones competing in the semi-finals, with a complete disregard of the other 124 players on the draw.

The field has opened up so much since the late fall last year, that the Big-4 has expanded into Big-6, or probably Big-8. In fact, it is the Russian world No. 6 Nikolay Davydenko who is considered to be the hot favorite for the Aussie Open.

Throw in other upcoming players like Marin Cilic, Fernando Gonzalez and Marcos Baghdatis, and you are looking at a Slam that go beyond any realm of predictability. The term ‘dark horse’ is expected to take its full effect with lots of surprises on offer in the year’s first Slam.

Federer’s Quarter

Early memories of U. S. Open ‘08 be coming back to haunt the Swiss maestro as he faces a tall task of overcoming the big hitting Igor Andreev in the very first round. Even if he avoids another five set match against the Russian, Lleyton Hewitt and Nikolay Davydenko might be waiting for him in the fourth round and quarters respectively. Throw in players like Baghdatis and Simon in the mix, and Federer might be very tired by the time he reaches the Quarters.

The good news for Federer is that Davydenko faces an equally tough challenge with Verdasco, Gulbis and Moya in his half of the quarter. Moreover, it is hard to see Davydenko getting third time lucky against Federer, and that too in a best-of-five contest. Fate as you may call, has provided the toughest Octet to the two top players of the first quarter.

Federer seems the favorite to go through, but John McEnroe said in his interview that Hewitt might have the best chance of creating a big upset against Federer. He unsettled Federer during the Open, and conditions here would suit him even more. I can see roars of “Come On” riding on a dark horse this season.

Showdowns to look out for: Federer/Andreev, Hewitt/Baghdatis, Moya/Davydenko

Pick: Federer

Djokovic’s Quarter

The lady luck has finally shone on the Serbian. He could not have expected a better draw for him, and if he passes on to the semis without major hiccups, he can be the favorite to win his second major. The major dangers might arrive from Tsonga, or Tommy Haas.

Djokovic has usually thrived against the French, and even though he lost two straight matches against the German, the medium paced Plexicushion will be much more favorable to Djokovic than the server-n-volleying Haas.

Gasquet is back after his kiss-of-death incidence and he faces the hot headed Michael Youzhny in an exciting first round contest. He has had good runs at Melbourne in the previous years, even handing a bagel to Gael Monfils in 2007, so the baby-Federer will be the dark horse to look out for.

The major threat, however, sits at the bottom of the quarter. The guy has no fear against any player, he plays his own explosive game, and has improved in every department in the last year. He also has a smooth ride till the Quarters where he may face a tired Djokovic. As much as Djokovic has improved his fitness in the last year, it still remains to be seen how he will survive in Melbourne.

Showdowns to look out for: Gasquet/Youzhny, Tsonga/Haas, Tsonga/Soderling

Pick: Soderling

Del Potro’s Quarter

Expect the yellow optic Wilson to be thrashed with disdain. Right from the top, the quarter features some of the biggest hitters on the tour, starting from Andy Roddick going all the way to Del Potro, and including Querry, Berdych, Gonzalez and Cilic in between.

Things start to get complicated for the lanky Argentine from now as he will be expected to be in the top mix in every slam. I am not sure if he can handle the added pressure at present, and the medium paced surface is most alien to the Tandilian.

I feel that Roddick’s window of opportunity closed out at the Wimbledon finals last year. It is sad but the most professional and hard working athlete on the tour might find it very difficult in the slams from now on.

That leaves us with Gonzalez, Berdych, Wawrinka and Querry, all dangerous but not for five full matches. The other tall Croat will be the beneficiary amidst all this chaos and might achieve his first deserved breakthrough in a major tournament.

The magician, Fabrice Santoro might also wave a final goodbye to tennis after entertaining us for all these years.

Showdowns to look out for: Cilic/Santoro, Roddick/Querry, Del Potro/Cilic

Pick: Cilic

Nadal’s Quarter

The battle of the Big-4 was short lived for only one year as Del Potro now finds himself at No. 4. That leaves the Scot in a potential Quarters matchup with a certain Spaniard.

From the early signs in Doha, Nadal is well past his injury scare, looking fully fit and equally hungry. He will find his full range of shots as the tournament progresses, although I doubt he will reach his last year’s form.

The only major threats to the world No. 2 and 5 comes from Monfils and Ferrer. Ferrer lacks a major weapon and Monfils still needs to get past the stage where he plays tennis for the crowd rather than himself. He has shown signs of the same at Paris Masters last year, but he is still a work in progress.

Oh, and there is a small matter of a possibility of another showdown between the Doctor and the Worm. Karlovic hit 78 aces against Stepanek in their Davis Cup matchup and still lost. This might be the time to set the matters straight.

Showdowns to look out for: Stepanek/Karlovic, Murray/Monfils, Nadal/Isner, Nadal/Murray

Pick: Nadal

Semi Finals

Soderling df. Federer: Federer might struggle in the semis after a few tough matches under his belt, the same way he did in the finals of the U. S. Open. Soderling on the other hand, is high on confidence at present, and faces a relatively easy draw. This is the time when the Swede will open his account against the Swiss (leaving his victory in Abu Dhabi aside).

Cilic df. Nadal: History repeats itself at Melbourne, as Cilic will overpower Nadal with his flat range of strokes, in a similar way as del Potro did in the U. S. Open. Nadal will eventually figure out a way to counter these fast, flat ball strikers, but it will need some time and many matches on the dirt.

Finals: Cilic may have a better all round game than Soderling, but Soderling has the experience of playing in a major final. Moreover, Cilic has welted under pressure in the past, against Haas at Wimbledon and against Del Potro in U. S. Open. The pressure of the biggest stage might be just too much for him.

Champion: Robin Soderling