Australian Open 2014 men's singles final preview: Nadal the overwhelming favourite

Rafael Nadal and Stanislas Wawrinka are all set to square off in the Australian Open final

After Switzerland’s Stanislas Wawrinka made it to the final of the Australian Open, defying all odds, some tennis fans were expecting the same sort of resistance from his compatriot Roger Federer, dreaming about the possibility of an all-Swiss final on Sunday. Stan, having done all the hard work, would also have personally preferred his Davis Cup doubles partner in the final instead of Rafael Nadal, against whom he shares the worst track record one can possibly imagine. However as fate would have it, the irrepressible Spaniard, shrugging off the blisters on his palm, put up a brave show to crush Federer and book a final showdown against the reigning Chennai Open champion.

So does that mean that Nadal equalling Pete Sampras in terms of number of Grand Slams is inevitable? Or can ‘Stan the Man’ in fact do the unthinkable? Any layman, let alone a tennis expert, would be able to answer these two questions, should he get to see the head-to-head record between the two. It looks so easy, doesn’t it? How can anyone even think of betting on someone who hasn’t even taken a set off his opponent in any of the 12 matches played against him?

With the odds stacked entirely against him, does Stan stand a chance at all in his first ever Grand Slam final of pulling off one of the biggest upsets in the history of the game?

First of all, if past records are anything to go by, Wawrinka would not have made it to the final at all, having had to meet Novak Djokovic in the quarters. Prior to that match, the Serb had an overwhelming 14-match winning streak against the eighth-seeded Swiss. It took almost eight years for Wawrinka to turn the tables and inflict what would only be his second victory over the World No. 2 Serb. So it needs to be remembered that there is always a ‘first’ to everything. Though the Swiss has never been a challenging opponent for the relentless southpaw till date, there is always a chance that he would finally be able to reverse the trend just as he did against Djokovic.

And Wawrinka certainly has the right attitude for it, as can be seen from the following tattooed expression on his left forearm:

‘Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better.’

Instead of getting bogged down by his repeated failures against Djokovic, Wawrinka was able to smile at them and move on. From being an underdog for very long, he has managed to get himself to a position where he has at least a 50 percent chance of upsetting the Serb. After having come close to beating him on a couple of occasions last year, he was at last able to solve the Serbian mystery which had been bothering him for quite a while. In fact, what Nadal has been doing all these years is mainly because of his fighting spirit, and that kind of spirit could well be the deciding factor in Stan’s career too.

Stanislas Wawrinka looked relaxed while talking at a press conference ahead of the final

When Wawrinka steps on to the court this Sunday evening inside Rod Laver Arena, there would likely not be much pressure on him. Unlike Federer, who has always been under pressure in an attempt to improve his head-to-head record against the Spaniard whenever the two collide, Stan has no real reason to show his nerves since no one expects him to surprise the left hander, at least for now. Many would agree that it is always better to start a big match as an underdog. Sure, Wawrinka may still be jittery about playing a champion like Nadal in the early going, simply because of the fact that he has never been in this sort of situation before. But if he manages to shed that fear of his, he would be able to play freely.

That said, Rafa himself has been in so many Grand Slam finals before that with the amount of experience behind him, he will start as the overwhelming favourite ahead of Sunday’s final. The only thing that could perhaps go against the 2009 champion is the possibility of him underrating his opponent. But that scenario is also highly unlikely because he Nadal is accustomed to playing even the opening rounds of any Grand Slam as if his life depended on them. So all said and done, Wawrinka simply has to play out of his skin and play every shot better than the World No. 1 in order to fulfil his Grand Slam dream.

Factors which should favour Wawrinka:

Although an upset in the final is only a remote possibility, there are certain factors which can turn the result in the Swiss’ favour.

1. As this is the only Grand Slam which hasn’t yet been won by Nadal more than once, the Spaniard may try to put in an extra bit of effort, and in doing so there is a possibility of him aggravating the pain on the blistered portion of his palm. This may hamper him while hitting his serve and forehand.

2. Wawrinka’s single-handed backhand, although occasionally lacking in consistency, is better equipped to handle the top spin of Nadal as compared to Federer. He has the ability of hitting his backhand cross court and down the line for winners, sometimes even from shoulder height.

3. Having played so many five-setters in the recent past, winning some and losing some, he should not be unduly worried about going the full distance in the final if needed.

4. The prospect of emerging out of the shadows of Federer and becoming the new Swiss No. 1 next week for the first time in his career has given him plenty of confidence to play against the very elite of players.

5. The fact that he has beaten the tournament favourite Novak Djokovic, ending his 28-match winning streak which started last year, should galvanise him to do well against the 2009 champion.

Will Rafael Nadal be smiling at the end of the match against Wawrinka tomorrow?

Factors which should favour Nadal:

Against an underdog like Wawrinka, it’s difficult to single out one particular factor which should help Nadal in winning the match. Just by playing his normal game and handling the important points well he will be able to keep the stylish Swiss at bay. If Nadal brings his A game, he is sure to dismiss the eighth seed cheaply.

Expectations from the final:

Though in all aspects the final looks like going Nadal’s way entirely, Wawrinka can still make his opponent work for it. The first and foremost thing for him is to hold his service games by serving very flat to the backhand corner of Nadal. If his serve gets broken too often, it will be highly improbable for him to get a foothold in the contest. It would also be in Wawrinka’s interests to try and shorten the points, games and sets – the longer the match goes, the greater will be Nadal’s chances of winning it. Since Wawrinka is a gifted shot maker, he should make every attempt to cut down the rallies, which would otherwise be benefiting his Spanish adversary.

As Nadal can at times be a slow starter, the Swiss would have to play an unforgivable game in the early going which could help him in pocketing the first set. If he gives up the opening set, then it would be virtually impossible for the Swiss to register a comeback. The Spaniard is known for manhandling his opponents even when he finds his back against the wall, and so to give him an early advantage is equivalent to giving up the match totally.

The match could possibly become interesting if the Swiss comes out all guns blazing in the opening set. That said, Nadal has experienced many such storms in his career and has successfully weathered most of them. Unless some miracle occurs, it doesn’t seem like anything can prevent Nadal from accompanying Sampras as the joint holder of 14 Grand Slam titles.

Prediction: Rafael Nadal to win in straight sets, one of which could be a tie-breaker.