Australian Open 2014: Prohibitive favourites and players with a point to prove

Lleyton Hewitt, Eugenie Bouchard, Samantha Stosur, Roger Federer, Victoria Azarenka, Rafael Nadal and Pat Rafter – it’s house full at the 2014 Australian Open!

The 2014 Australian Open will get underway on 13th January, and already the excitement is rising. Three of the current Big Four of men’s tennis will be coached by titans of the 1980s. Andy Murray has been working with Ivan Lendl for a couple of years now and that has dramatically turned around his fortunes, while Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer surprisingly announced Boris Becker and Stefan Edberg respectively as their coaches. Whether Becker and Edberg can turn around Djokovic’s or Federer’s fortunes remains to be seen, but the intrigue is palpable. With all this, let’s look at what might transpire at Melbourne Park over the course of the two weeks -

Prohibitive favourites:

Novak Djokovic – Djokovic is the 3-time defending champion and he ended 2013 with a massive 24-match winning streak. This is the part of the year when he operates at his best. The slow-medium hard court suits his aggressive baseline play. The winning streak also included two lopsided wins over his chief rival Rafael Nadal, and it basically sent a message to Nadal – “You may have taken my No. 1 ranking, but I still have your number”. Not surprisingly, he is the bookmakers’ pick to clinch his 5th Norman Brooks trophy, something that hasn’t been done in tennis history.

Djokovic has received what might be called a powderpuff draw, with David Ferrer the highest seed in his half (remember the semifinal blowout last year?!). But Stanislas Wawrinka looms in his quarter. And who wouldn’t want to see a rematch of last year’s fourth round encounter!

Rafael Nadal – Nobody expected Nadal to have the monster year that he had in 2013. Nadal laid to rest any demons and proceeded to dominate the field after missing the Australian Open in 2013 through injury. Like Djokovic, he is out to make history by becoming the only man since Rod Laver to win all the Slams twice. The only obstacle standing in his way is his tormenter-in-chief, Djokovic, who has basically owned this tournament the last five years. That said, the draw hasn’t been kind to Nadal this year, as Andy Murray, Roger Federer and Juan Martin del Potro are all in his half, with del Potro looking like a possible quarterfinal opponent.

Andy Murray – Murray finds himself in a similar position to the one that Rafael Nadal did last year. He has just come back from a lengthy injury break after minor back surgery and is slowly getting back into the groove with match play. He just had an uncharacteristic loss to Florian Mayer in the Qatar Open, but that can be attributed to rust. Anybody who has reached the final in three of the last five Australian Opens (including last year) deserves to be among the favourites.

Murray’s draw until the quarterfinal is quite manageable. He might run into Roger Federer in the quarters, which, considering their current career paths, isn’t a very daunting task. Then he would possibly have to go past both Nadal and Djokovic to get his hands on his first Australian Open.

Men with a point to prove:

Stylish Swiss Roger Federer has a point to prove at this year’s Australian Open

Roger Federer – With a single title (Halle) in 2013 and his ranking plummeting to No. 6, the great man is coming off his worst season since 2002, and speculation is rife that his career is coming to an end. But with the recent coaching shift to his childhood idol, Stefan Edberg, Federer will hope to turn back the clock and produce the magic that has eluded him for the last year. What Edberg will do is help Federer shorten points to conserve energy. And the combination of age and accomplishments means Federer need not mandatorily enter every tournament. So he will have the benefit of a light schedule that will enable him to peak at the Slams. By the looks of it, this is a make-or-break year for the Swiss No. 1 and you can bet he will be the most followed player in 2014.

Federer’s draw is full of potential landmines at this stage of his career. From Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the fourth round to Murray in the quarters to Nadal in the semis to Djokovic in the final, it would be very difficult for Federer to come through and win his fifth Australian Open.

Juan Martin Del Potro – Ever since he fully recovered from a career-threatening wrist injury, the question on everyone’s lips has been whether he can recapture the form that propelled him to his only Slam win at the US Open in 2009. From what we’ve seen in 2013, it seems that he has finally recaptured that form. With quality wins in Masters tournaments over Djokovic, Nadal and Murray, his next step will be to consistently challenge and beat these guys in the Slams where the stakes are higher and the Big Three dominate. He still needs that extra bit of a mental push that will get him over the hump against the big guys, but with his ranking up to No. 5 and his chief nemesis Federer fading, 2014 is shaping up to the year when the big man finally steps out of the Big Four’s shadow.

His first attempt might arrive in the quarters where he will likely face Nadal. He blew Nadal off the court in two sets when they last played in the Shanghai Masters last year, so beating Rafa is not beyond reach. Murray in the latter half of a Slam is a different proposition altogether, but is still possible. It is not beyond the Tower of Tandil to make a first appearance in the final. But facing Djokovic for del Potro is like facing a brick wall.

Stanislas Wawrinka – The Swiss No.2 (or is it No.1!) had a breakthrough season in 2013. From playing what I believe was the match of the year against Djokovic (a 5-set thriller) in the Australian Open to making his first Slam semifinal in the US Open (which he lost in another high-quality 5-setter to Djokovic), Wawrinka compiled an excellent season. But as we know in tennis, having a breakthrough year is one thing, and following it up with a better one the next year is a completely different affair. So all eyes will be on Wawrinka to see how he follows up his 2013 season.

There is no doubt he has the game (made up of heavy forehands and jackhammer backhands), but whether he has the mental fortitude to hang with the guys ranked above him is the big doubt. The question on everybody’s mind is whether he can reach the quarterfinals and give Djokovic an almighty scare like last year. Given his form in the Chennai Open, it is looking like a real possibility.

Despite all this, I don’t see any reason to believe that Novak Djokovic will lose, no matter how well any of the others are playing. It has been his turf for the last five years and it will be again this year.

My prediction: Novak Djokovic d. Rafael Nadal in 4 well-fought sets.