Australian Open 2017: Analysing Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal's chances

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - JANUARY 13:  Rafael Nadal of Spain plays a backhand during a practice session ahead of the 2017 Australian Open at Melbourne Park on January 13, 2017 in Melbourne, Australia.  (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Nadal is the ninth seed in Melbourne and a one-time champion

Roger Federer

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - JANUARY 13:  Roger Federer of Switzerland hits a forehand during a practice session ahead of the 2017 Australian Open at Melbourne Park on January 13, 2017 in Melbourne, Australia.  (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Federer is back, fighting fit and ranked 17th in Melbourne

This is not a Tolkein book, but it’s certainly the Return of the King. Roger Federer’s return at the ITF Hopman Cup – an exhibition tournament – sold out so early on that the Swiss opened up his practice sessions for fans.

Now, the Australian Open will mark his proper return to competitive tennis since his break at Wimbledon last year, and he’s raring to go at the tournament where he has won four titles in the past.

Using a protected ranking of 17th following his six-month break from tennis, Federer now enters the tournament seeded outside the top 10; that means he will meet qualifiers in his first two rounds. Given that qualifiers are still currently underway, it is not yet clear who exactly Federer will be playing just yet.

His first seeded opponent will come immediately after two rounds of qualifiers, in the form of Tomas Berdych. Berdych had a mixed bag in 2016, struggling with injury and then, appendicitis surgery, which sidelined him for a significant period. The Czech will not worry Federer too much; he has defeated Berdych 16 times of the pair’s 22 matches. Incidentally, the last time the pair played each other was at the Australian Open in 2016, with Federer ousting Berdych in the quarter-finals.

Federer will also be psychologically armed with something to prove – and that will prove perhaps the biggest weapon in his arsenal.

Next up, he’ll likely play Kei Nishikori. The Japanese ace has something to prove this season, and especially after a 2016 season that showed a more polished, cleaner game that impressed fans and critics alike. Although he won only one ATP title – the ATP250 Memphis Open, his game has become more honed, finer and more precise.

Federer has defeated Nishikori 4 of the pair’s 6 matches – and won their last three encounters, so he will not be too worried here.

His biggest roadblock, however, and perhaps the match that could derail his Australian Open, is in the quarter-finals – against World No. 1 Andy Murray. The two have a prolific 25-match rivalry, one that is slanted in favour of Federer at 14-11.

While the two did not have the opportunity to play each other in 2016, they crossed paths multiple times in the two previous years, and despite perceived form and career graphs, Federer has won all of their last five matches.

Should this scenario occur, it will likely be a fan favourite match.

The semi-finals could see Federer face compatriot and close friend Stan Wawrinka. The two are playing companions frequently when not on Tour, and know each other’s game well. Their 18-3 rivalry, slanted in favour of Federer (can’t say ‘the Swiss’ here now, can we!), is quite misleading in that Wawrinka has put up more than a strong fight on every occasion, and beaten Federer at the Grand Slam level, as recently as 2015, at the French Open – a title that Stan Wawrinka would go on to win.

There is no doubt Federer could pull out the stops for a fight here, and in the event that does happen, he will set up another Grand Slam final against Novak Djokovic, replaying one of the truly epic rivalries in modern day tennis – a feast for tennis watchers and players alike.

That rivalry – that 45-match rivalry – is now only slightly tilted in favour of the resurgent Serb, at 23-22, but the two – both considered among the greatest the game has ever seen – have played each other on every playable surface – at every stage of competition, and each time put on a feat for watchers.

The two played each other at the semi-finals last year, and Federer scalped a set off Djokovic before eventually losing out. With Federer’s renewed energy and Djokovic’s still-slightly-patchy form, this scenario would be many fans’ ideal way to start the year.

Should Federer return to ‘Federer’ form, this will be a blockbuster Open.

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