Australian Open 2020 men's singles preview: The contenders, the dark horses and the dangerous floaters

The 2020 Australian Open will mark the 52nd edition of the tournament in the Open Era. Since Rod Laver's triumph in 1969, 25 different players have lifted the Australian Open title, amongst whom Novak Djokovic (7) and Roger Federer (6) lead a group of 13 players to have won multiple titles.

The duo of Djokovic and Federer have racked up 13 of the last 16 Australian Open titles on offer, the others being Marat Safin (2005), Rafael Nadal (2009) and Stan Wawrinka (2014). Not suprisingly, Federer (97) and Djokovic (68) have the most match wins of any player at the tournament, and are the only players to appear in 7 title matches.

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Since the 2017 Australian Open, the Big 3 of Federer (3), Djokovic (4) and Nadal (5) have swept all 12 Grand Slam titles on offer. At the 2020 Australian Open, men's tennis' legendary trifecta would be the overwhelming favourites to lift the title and extend their domination of the Grand Slam scene.

However, should the Big 3 slip up, there is a small group of inspired players capable of making their breakthrough at the first Grand Slam tournament of the 2020 tennis season.

On that note, let us analyse the contenders, the dark horses, and the dangerous floaters at the 2020 Australian Open:

# The Contenders

Federer (left), Nadal, and Djokovic are the favourites for the 2020 Australian Open title

As has been the case for the last three seasons, the Big 3 of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic are the favourites for the 2020 Australian Open title. Despite being north of 30, the trio has successfully managed to thwart younger opposition hungry for a slice of the Grand Slam pie.

Federer reeled off 3 five-set wins to lift the 2017 Australian Open title and returned the following year to become the oldest player to successfully defend the title in Melbourne.

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Djokovic is the only player in the Open Era to win 3 consecutive Australian Open titles and is undefeated in 14 cumulative semifinal and final matches at the tournament. The Serb handed Nadal his first straight-sets defeat in a Major final to win a record 7th title in 2019.

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Nadal, meanwhile, has been thwarted in four title matches at Melbourne Park since his lone triumph at the tournament in 2009. But the Spaniard remains a formidable opponent, having won 61 matches at the Australian Open - a tally which is only dwarfed by Federer (97) and Djokovic (68).

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# The dark horses

Medvedev and Thiem could be the men most likely to win the 2020 Australian Open should the Big-3 slip up

Just below in the pecking order, a small group of players could possibly break the Big 3 stranglehold over the Grand Slams. This ensemble of players has been knocking on the door for a while and they could be the ones to go all the way at the 2020 Australian Open should the legendary trifecta slip up at Melbourne Park. Let us meet this exclusive group.

# Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev

The latest player in the Open Era to reach a Grand Slam final also came close to becoming the newest Grand Slam champion since Marin Cilic lifted the 2014 US Open title. Daniil Medvedev recovered from two sets and a break down before squandering break points in the fifth set of an epic 2019 US Open final.

Medvedev had a memorable north-American hardcourt summer, reaching the finals of all 4 tournaments he contested (lost Washington DC, lost Montreal, won Cincinnati, lost US Open), and then made the title match at a further two tournaments.(won St. Petersburg and Shanghai).

The Russian, who made his Top 10 breakthrough in 2019, then squandered a match point against Nadal at the ATP Finals before going down in a third set tiebreak. He also pushed Djokovic to the limit in an exhausting three-set battle at the 2020 ATP Cup.

Perched in the top half of the 2020 Australian Open draw, Medvedev is slated to clash with top seed Nadal (3-0 against Medvedev) in the semifinals if the seedings hold true. If successful, the Russian could lock horns with either Federer or Djokovic, who hold a cumulative 8-2 record against him.

# Dominic Thiem

Dominic Thiem

For long regarded as a claycourt specialist because of his prowess on the surface, the two-time Roland Garros finalist has proven his pedigree on other surfaces too in recent times.

Thiem came within two points of beating Nadal in the 2018 US Open quarterfinals, before going down to the Spaniard in a fifth set tiebreak. The Austrian also managed to take a set off Nadal in the 2019 Roland Garros final.

Thiem made his Masters 1000 breakthrough on hardcourt at the 2019 Indian Wells, beating Federer in a three-set final. The 26-year-old also won Beijing and Vienna and lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas in the 2019 ATP Finals final.

At the 2020 Australian Open, Thiem is in the top-quarter of the draw with Nadal; the pair are slated to clash in the quarterfinals. Although Thiem is 0-4 against the Spaniard in Grand Slam play, the Austrian could be a formidable opposition on hard court.

If Thiem reaches his first Grand Slam final outside Roland Garros, Djokovic or Federer could be potential opponents.

Both men lost to Thiem at the 2019 ATP Finals, with Federer also losing to Thiem at Indian Wells and Madrid, and Djokovic going down to the Austrian in a five-set semifinal at 2019 Roland Garros.

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# The dangerous floaters

Wawrinka (left) and Cilic

Apart from the Big 3, Stan Wawrinka and Marin Cilic will be the other Grand Slam title winners at the 2020 Australian Open. Although both players have fallen down the pecking order in recent times, they do have Grand Slam title-winning pedigree and are capable of upsetting anyone on their day.

Wawrinka and Cilic have 4 Grand Slam titles from 7 cumulative finals and would be dangerous opponents for the legendary Big 3 too. Let us analyse their title credentials at the 2020 Australian Open.

# Stan Wawrinka

Stan Wawrinka

A three-time Grand Slam champion, Stan Wawrinka made his Grand Slam breakthrough at the 2014 Australian Open final where he beat Rafael Nadal in a four-set final. Since his maiden Major triumph, Wawrinka has made 2 semifinals at the tournament, going down to the eventual champion on each occasion in 5-set semifinals (2015: Djokovic, 2017: Federer).

The 'other Swiss' exited Melbourne Park in the second round in 2018-19. Given his recent form, Wawrinka is unlikely to make a title run at the 2020 Australian Open.

The 27th seed opens his campaign against Damir Dzumhur and is slated to meet John Isner in the third round, Daniil Medvedev in the fourth round, and Thiem or Nadal in the semifinals.

If Wawrinka manages to reach his first Grand Slam final since 2017 Roland Garros (lost to Nadal), he could meet one of Djokovic or Federer, who hold a combined 42-9 head-to-head record against Wawrinka.

# Marin Cilic

Marin Cilic

Marin Cilic is the latest player to have won a Grand Slam title in the Open Era, doing so at the 2014 US Open. Since his Major breakthrough, the tall Croatian has made two other Grand Slam finals: 2017 Wimbledon and 2018 Australian Open, going down to Federer on both occasions.

Since a first-round exit on his tournament debut in 2007 (lost to Ilija Bozoljac), Cilic hasn't fallen in the opening hurdle at Melbourne Park in 10 subsequent appearances.

The unseeded Cilic opens his campaign at the 2020 Australian Open against Frenchman Corentin Moutet, before Benoit Paire and Roberto Bautista Agut potentially await in the next two rounds.

Stefanos Tsitsipas and Roger Federer could be the ones to face Cilic in the fourth round and the quarterfinals respectively, before a semifinal meeting with Djokovic.

Cilic has winning head-to-head records against both Paire (1-4) and Bautista Agut (2-4), and a win from his lone meeting with Tsitsipas (2017 Tokyo). But against Djokovic and Federer, Cilic is a combined 3-26.

All things considered, a title run at the 2020 Australian Open looks unlikely for Cilic.