Australian Open 2023: Rafael Nadal vs Mackenzie McDonald preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (1) Rafael Nadal vs Mackenzie McDonald.

Date: January 18, 2023.

Tournament: Australian Open 2023.

Round: Second round (Round of 64).

Venue: Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia.

Category: Grand Slam.

Surface: Hard.

Prize Money: A$76,500,000.

Live telecast: USA - ESPN | UK - Eurosport | India - Sony Six, Sony Ten & Sony Liv.

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Rafael Nadal vs Mackenzie McDonald preview

Rafael Nadal at the 2023 Australian Open.

Defending champion Rafael Nadal will face off against Mackenzie McDonald in the second round of the 2023 Australian Open on Wednesday.

Nadal commenced his title defense against Jack Draper in the first round. Both players were pretty solid on serve throughout the opening set. The Spaniard held a break point in the eighth game, but the 20-year-old erased it to hold serve.

With Draper serving to stay in the set at 6-5, Nadal turned up the intensity to break his serve and clinch the set. The young Brit flipped the script in the second set as he raced to a 4-0 lead and held on to it to take the set. The momentum then shifted in the defending champion's favor as he went 4-1 up in the third set.

Draper fought back to make it 4-4, but Nadal edged him out by claiming the next couple of games to bag another set. The Spaniard got broken to start the fourth set, but reeled off the next six games to win the match 7-5, 2-6, 6-4, 6-1.

McDonald, meanwhile, was up against compatriot Brandon Nakashima in the first round. The former won the first couple of sets via tie-breaks to put himself in a commanding position.

With his back up against the wall, Nakashima raised his level. He captured the third set, losing just one game in the process to keep himself in contention. The fourth set went into a tie-break in which he saved a couple of match points before winning it to force a final set.

McDonald halted his opponent's momentum as he went 2-0 up to start the fifth set, but Nakashima soon got back on serve. Things got pretty intense, but the 27-year-old made one final push as he nabbed the final three games in a row to win the match 7-6 (5), 7-6 (1), 1-6, 6-7 (10), 6-4.

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Rafael Nadal vs Mackenzie McDonald head-to-head

Nadal leads McDonald 1-0 in the head-to-head. He won their previous encounter at the 2020 French Open in straight sets.

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Rafael Nadal vs Mackenzie McDonald odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Rafael Nadal	-1100	+1.5 (-3000)	Over 31.5 (-120)
Mackenzie McDonald	+600	-1.5 (+825)	Under 31.5 (-120)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

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Rafael Nadal vs Mackenzie McDonald prediction

Mackenzie McDonald at the 2023 Adelaide International 2

Nadal finally won his first match of the year by defeating Draper in the previous round. Still, his level is a far cry from what it used to be. His serve remains quite a cause for concern these days. Even as his opponent was physically hampered towards the end, the Spaniard needed to save a couple of break points.

However, Nadal's movement and court coverage looked pretty good. He won a few points while coming forward and could engage in long rallies. The southpaw has started off a little slow in tournaments previously as well, only to gain steam towards the end.

McDonald earned a hard-fought win over Nakashima in the previous round, needing a little over four hours to get the job done. He hit 19 aces and won a high percentage of his first-serve points. Overall, he finished the match with 74 winners compared to 54 unforced errors.

The American is a consistent player who makes the most of the tools at his disposal, but his playing style isn't enough to bother higher-ranked players. With just one top-10 scalp to his name, McDonald's 1-13 record against top-10 players doesn't bode well for his chances against the Spaniard.

While Nadal is far from his best, his title defense is likely to continue.

Pick: Rafael Nadal to win in four sets.