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The men's singles draw for the 2024 Australian Open has been released. Defending champion Novak Djokovic is currently battling an injury concern, but he's still the outright favorite to win the title. Obviously, things will be much clearer once he plays his first match.
Rafael Nadal had begun his preparation to participate in the Australian Open, but suffered yet another setback. The Spaniard sustained a new injury while competing in Brisbane and decided against going to Melbourne.
Despite Nadal's withdrawal, the rest of the big guns are all accounted for Down Under. With that in mind, let's take a look at how the draw could shake out over the next two weeks:
First Quarter: Novak Djokovic aiming to create more history at the Australian Open
Seeded players: (1) Novak Djokovic, (7) Stefanos Tsitsipas, (12) Taylor Fritz, (16) Ben Shelton, (20) Adrian Mannarino, (22) Francisco Cerundolo, (25) Lorenzo Musetti and (30) Tomas Martin Etcheverry.
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Expected quarterfinal: Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Dark horse: Marin Cilic
Analysis: With more history on the line in the form of a 25th Major title, Djokovic will be extra motivated to give it his all in Melbourne. He's got a pretty smooth ride until the last eight, with every opponent seeming quite beatable.
The Serb will start off against a qualifier or a lucky loser and could face home hopeful, Alexei Popyrin after that. Old rival Gael Monfils or Andy Murray, or even Tomas Martin Etcheverry, could await Djokovic in the third round.
A potential fourth round with Ben Shelton is also on the cards. The quarterfinal could be a rematch of last year's Australian Open final for the Serb, against Stefanos Tsitsipas.
As for Tsitsipas, he'll start off against Matteo Berrettini, with his path to the last eight being lined with the likes of Lorenzo Musetti (third round) and Taylor Fritz (fourth round). Fritz has the potential to do some damage here, with Fabian Maroszan being the toughest opponent he'll have to face early on.
It seems nothing is set in stone in this section of the draw aside from Djokovic's presence in the quarterfinals and him defeating his opponent.
Predicted quarterfinal: Novak Djokovic def. Taylor Fritz
Second quarter: Jannik Sinner eyes his first Major title
Seeded Players: (4) Jannik Sinner, (5) Andrey Rublev, (10) Alex de Minaur, (15) Karen Khachanov, (17) Frances Tiafoe, (18) Nicolas Jarry, (26) Sebastian Baez and (29) Sebastian Korda.
Expected quarterfinal: Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev
Dark horse: Borna Coric
Analysis: Jannik Sinner had a brilliant end to the 2023 season, and his recent results suggest that he's ready to take his career to the next level. Sinner led Italy to the Davis Cup title, won his maiden Masters title, bagged a couple of ATP 500 tournaments, and finished as the runner-up at the ATP Finals in the second half of the year.
The Italian was also the only player to beat Djokovic twice last year, a fact that could give him some confidence when they potentially face off in the semis here. Sinner doesn't have much to worry about until the fourth round, where he could meet last year's Australian Open semifinalist Karen Khachanov.
The other side of the quarter has Andrey Rublev, who is now famous for faltering at the quarterfinal stage of the Majors. The Russian could cross paths with Sebastian Korda in the third round, with home favorite Alex de Minaur up next after that.
De Minaur recently cracked the top 10 of the ATP rankings courtesy his heroics at the United Cup, which included a win over Djokovic. He'll face Milos Raonic in the first round, but the big-serving Canadian's lack of match play could hinder him.
While Sinner seems like a lock to make the quarterfinals, it's tough to pick between Rublev and de Minaur. Both have started the season quite well, but the latter will have the home crowd cheering him up, which could give him enough gas to get over the finish line.
Predicted quarterfinal: Jannik Sinner def. Alex de Minaur
Third quarterfinal: Daniil Medvedev hoping to be third time lucky at the Australian Open
Seeded player: (3) Daniil Medvedev, (8) Holger Rune, (9) Hubert Hurkacz, (13) Grigor Dimitrov, (21) Ugo Humbert, (23) Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, (27) Felix Auger-Aliassime and (28) Tallon Griekspoor.
Expected quarterfinal: Daniil Medvedev vs Holger Rune
Dark horse: Zhizhen Zhang
Analysis: Medvedev, twice a runner-up at the Australian Open, will be hoping third time's the charm - if he gets to the final.
While Medvedev will have an easy start against a qualifier or a lucky loser, things could get tricky soon after. Felix Auger-Aliassime could be lurking in the third round, provided he gets past Dominic Thiem in his opener.
Medvedev's biggest challenge would likely come in the form of Dimitrov in the fourth round. The latter won the Brisbane International to kick off the new season, and concluded the previous season on a high note as well. This could be the Bulgarian's time to shine.
Holger Rune has a pretty manageable path to the last eight. Rising teen star Arthur Fils could test him in the third round, with Hubert Hurkacz potentially awaiting the Dane after that.
At this best, Rune is more tenacious than any of the potential opponents he's due to face in the early rounds. It might all come down to Medvedev and Dimitrov for the other quarterfinal spot, with the latter having a pretty good shot based on his recent form.
Predicted quarterfinal: Holger Rune def. Grigor Dimitrov
Fourth quarter: Carlos Alcaraz looking to improve his poor record at the Australian Open
Seeded players: (2) Carlos Alcaraz, (6) Alexander Zverev, (11) Casper Ruud, (14) Tommy Paul, (19) Cameron Norrie, (24) Jan-Lennard Struff, (31) Alexander Bublik and (32) Jiri Lehecka.
Expected quarterfinal: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev
Dark horse: Jack Draper
Analysis: Havng never made it past the third round so far, Carlos Alcaraz will first and foremost be looking to make a deep run at the Australian Open. He was forced to give the tournament a miss last year due to an injury.
The Spaniard will start off against veteran Richard Gasquet, who recently departed the top 100 of the ATP rankings for the first time since April 2005. Alcaraz's next couple of potential opponents could be Dan Evans and Alexander Bublik. Tommy Paul, who proved to be a thorn in the Spaniard's side during last year's US swing, could face him in the fourth round.
Alcaraz's possible quarterfinal opponents include Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud.
Zverev was instrumental in leading his team to victory at the recently concluded United Cup. Ruud als competed there, and won all three of his singles matches. He and Zverev are drawn to cross paths in the fourth round, and they are likely to reach that stage as well.
Cameron Norrie looks to be the only player in this section of the draw who could stop it from happening.
Expected quarterfinal: Carlos Alcaraz def. Alexander Zverev
Semifinal Predictions
Jannik Sinner def. Novak Djokovic
Carlos Alcaraz def. Holger Rune
Final Prediction
Jannik Sinner def. Carlos Alcaraz
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