Australian Open 2024: Novak Djokovic's projected path to final ft. potential 2023 rematch vs Stefanos Tsitsipas in QF

World No. 1 Novak Djokovic opens his campaign at the 2024 Australian Open seeking to create more Grand Slam history.

The 36-year-old is coming off a banner 2023 season, especially in Majors, where he went 23-1. He reached all four finals, winning three, with his only loss coming in a five-set Wimbledon title match to Carlos Alcaraz.

Djokovic ended the season in a flourish, winning the Paris Masters and a record seventh ATP Finals title in Turin, before losing to Jannik Sinner in the Davis Cup semifinals.

The Serb is off to a 2-1 start to the year. He won his first two matches at the United Cup mixed team event before losing to Alex de Minaur in the quarterfinals. He's now all set to commence his bid for a record-extending 11th Australian Open title.

Having won in his last four appearances at the Happy Slam, Djokovic starts his campaign against a qualifier, but there will be sterner tests ahead, including possible matchups against former finalists. Without further ado, let's get to his likely opponents in every round.

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Novak Djokovic's likely Australian Open 2024 1R opponent: Yet to be determined

The Serb will open his campaign for an 11th title against a qualifier or lucky loser, who will emerge from the ongoing qualifying rounds at the Australian Open.

It's pertinent to note that after going 0-2 at the Grand Slam in 2005 and 2006, Djokovic has never lost in the opening round in Melbourne.

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Djokovic's likely 2R opponent: Alexei Popyrin

If Novak Djokovic gets past the first round, he will likely run into Alexei Popyrin. The Australian takes on wildcard Marc Palmans, which he's expected to win, based on his superior ranking and recent form.

Popyrin is 1-1 on the year and is 7-3 at the Australian Open, having reached the third round thrice. Djokovic took the pair's lone meeting in the Tokyo opening round in 2019 and should win again.

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Djokovic's likely 3R opponent: Andy Murray

This is a slightly bold prediction because going purely by rankings, the unseeded Murray isn't expected to beat 30th seed Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the opener.

Going by his superior big-match pedigree, especially in Melbourne, the five-time Australian Open finalist could win this one and also the next one against Gael Monfils or Yannick Hanfmann.

Djokovic and Murray have a rousing rivalry. The Serb, though, is 25-11 against Murray, including 5-0 at the Australian Open, and should take the matchup, if it materializes.

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Djokovic's likely 4R opponent: Ben Shelton

If the seedings hold, Novak Djokovic could meet his first real test in the second week, where he could meet 18th seed Ben Shelton.

The American is coming off a career-best 2023 season, reaching the US Open semifinal (losing to Djokovic) and the quarterfinals at the Australian Open. Shelton is 2-1 for the season and lost his only meeting with the Serb in the aforementioned New York semifinal. Djokovic will be expected to win again.

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Novak Djokovic's likely QF opponent: Stefanos Tsitsipas

The matchups begin to get tougher for the Serb - as they should - as the business end of the Slam approaches.

Djokovic's likely quarterfinal opponent is seventh seed Stefanos Tsitsipas, who lost in straight sets to the Serb in last year's Melbourne final. Despite his unmistakable talent, Tstispas is winless in three Grand Slam meetings with Djokovic. His 2021 Roland Garros title match against the Serb was a close one where the Greek clinched the first two sets before running out of steam.

The Greek's barren run is expected to continue, as Djokovic is 6-0 in his last six Melbourne quarterfinals and has lost only twice in 13 meetings with Tsitsipas.

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Novak Djokovic's likely semifinal opponent: Andrey Rublev

If Djokovic wins his quarterfinal, he will likely run into fifth seed Andrey Rublev. The Russian is 4-0 on the season, winning the Hong Kong title last week.

Rublev has a decent record at the Australian Open, reaching two quarterfinals in the last three years. However, the Russian has won only one of his six matches against Djokovic.

His five losses include one in the Australian Open quarterfinals last year, where the Serb emerged triumphant in straight sets, dropping just seven games. Djokovic has a perfect 10-0 record in Australian Open semis.

Considering his dominant record against Rublev, expect that streak to continue as the Serb moves closer to another title at Melbourne Park.

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Novak Djokovic's likely final opponent: Carlos Alcaraz

This will undoubtedly be the toughest test of the fortnight for Novak Djokovic, and a fitting end to the tournament featuring its two best players.

Carlos Alcaraz dealt the Serb his only defeat in Grand Slams last year and has split his two Major meetings with the Serb. The Spaniard will be making new ground if he reaches the second week, having never gone beyond the third round. But once he gets beyond that, expect him to reach the final.

Alcaraz is one of the few players in the draw who can end Novak Djokovic's perfect 10-0 Australian Open final record. He has beaten the Serb in Major finals - as recently as Wimbledon last year - and could do so again.