Australian Open 2025: Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs (11) Paula Badosa

Date: January 23, 2025

Tournament: Australian Open 2025

Round: Semifinal

Venue: Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Hard (outdoor)

Prize Money: A$96,500,000

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel, ESPN | UK - Eurosport | Canada - TSN, RDS

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa preview

Aryna Sabalenka at the Australian Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka will face Paula Badosa in the semifinals of the Australian Open 2025 on January 23.

Sabalenka reached the quarterfinals without losing a set and beating Sloane Stephens, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, Clara Tauson, and Mirra Andreeva along the way. She took on 27th seed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova for a spot in the last four.

The two held serve quite comfortably for the first four games of the opening set. Sabalenka then turned things up a notch, and reeled off four games on the trot to take the set. With the score tied at 1-1 in the second set, she was on course for an easy service hold as she led 40-0.

However, Pavlyuchenkova won the next five points to secure her first break of the match. She raised her level even more, and broke her opponent's serve once again. While the defending champion retrieved one of the breaks, the Russian snagged another break of serve, and then served out the set.

Sabalenka rallied from a break down twice in the third set to stay on even terms. She secured the decisive break of serve in the eighth game of the set to go 5-3 up, and closed out the match without any fuss in the following game for a 6-2, 2-6, 6-3 win.

Badosa, meanwhile, beat Wang Xinyu, Talia Gibson, Marta Kostyuk, and Olga Danilovic to book a quarterfinal date against third seed Coco Gauff. Both players defended their serves quite well for most of the first set. However, the Spaniard upped the ante towards the end, and went on a three-game run to clinch the set.

Badosa saw her 2-0 lead cut down to size in the second set. However, she reeled off the next three games in a row to go 5-2 up. Gauff stopped her from serving out the match on her first try with a break of serve but the Spaniard got the job done on her second attempt for a 7-5, 6-4 win.

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa head-to-head

Sabalenka leads Badosa 5-2 in the head-to-head. The Belarusian won their previous encounter at the French Open 2024 in straight sets.

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Aryna Sabalenka
Paula Badosa

(Odds will be added once they're available)

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa prediction

Paula Badosa at the Australian Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Sabalenka weathered the windy conditions on Rod Laver Arena and a peaking Pavlyuchenkova to record her 19th consecutive win at the venue, and her 10th straight win of the year. Her serve was impacted heavily by the wind, which in turn, caused her ground game to break down as she wasn't able to begin the point on her own terms.

However, even without the wind, Sabalenka's serve hasn't been her strongest asset during the tournament. She was on the backfoot at the start of the third set as well but never lost faith in her abilities. She was able to regroup, and a couple of loose points from Pavlyuchenkova kept her dream of a three-peat in Melbourne alive.

Badosa has advanced to her first Major semifinal, and if she displays the level she did against Gauff, then she has a good shot to snap her losing skid against the World No. 1. Sabalenka has won their last five matches, though four of them were on clay.

Badosa leads her 2-1 on hardcourts, though it was Sabalenka who won their previous meeting on the surface. The Belarusian's current winning streak and her head-to-head against the Spaniard makes her the favorite once again, unreliable serve notwithstanding.

Pick: Aryna Sabalenka to win in three sets.