Match Details
Fixture: Matteo Berrettini vs (13) Holger Rune
Date: January 16, 2025
Tournament: Australian Open 2025
Round: Second Round (Round of 64)
Venue: Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia
Category: Grand Slam
Surface: Hard (Outdoor)
Prize Money: A$ 96,500,000
Live Telecast: USA - ESPN & Tennis Channel | UK - Eurosport | India - Sony Sports & Sony Liv
Holger Rune vs Matteo Berrettini preview
Matteo Berrettini will take on 13th seed Holger Rune in the second round of the Australian Open on January 16, 2025. The winner of the match will take on either 18th seed Hubert Hurkacz or Miomir Kecmanovic in the third round.
Rune started his 2025 season at the Brisbane International and suffered a 5-7, 3-6 defeat to eventual champion Jiri Lehecka in the opening. The Dane next competed at the Australian Open and was drawn against Zhang Zhizhen in the first round.
Solitary breaks from both players saw them take two sets each and force the match into a fifth. Rune made the first break of serve in the final set but Zhang broke back the following game. The Dane, however, was not to be denied and he eventually broke his opponent's serve in the final set to register a 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 to book his place in the second round of the Australian Open.
Berrettini's start to the 2025 season was similar to that of Rune's, as he suffered a first-round exit at the Brisbane International, losing 6-3, 3-6, 4-6 to eighth seed Jordan Thompson.
The Italian then competed at the Australian Open and faced Cameron Norrie in the first round. The Brit was off to a good start, as he took the opening set via a tiebreak. However, Berrettini leveled things up in the second set after winning it 6-4. The Italian then dominated the third set before winning the fourth to register a 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-1, 6-3 and reach the second round of the Australian Open.
Holger Rune vs Matteo Berrettini head-to-head
Rune currently leads 3-1 in the head-to-head over Berrettini. Their last encounter came in the second round of the Shanghai Masters, with the Dane winning 4-6, 6-4, 6-3.
Holger Rune vs Matteo Berrettini odds
All odds sourced from Oddschecker.
Holger Rune vs Matteo Berrettini prediction
Rune's ranking is considerably higher than that of Berrettini's, but the Italian is gradually entering a period of resurgence. So, there is a pretty good chance of us seeing an evenly-fought contest.
Matteo Berrettini has had impressive numbers on his first serve so far during the 2025 season, having won 109 out of 129 points (84.5%) on it. The 28-year-old also served 40 aces, 32 of them coming in his Australian Open opener. During that match, he also hit 63 winners while producing 41 unforced errors,
The Italian's serve is a huge weapon and breaking his service games will be very difficult. He is a highly aggressive player but at the same time, that is something he needs to keep a check on at times, so as to not serve too many unforced errors.
Rune's first serve numbers from his first two matches of the 2025 season have been far from impressive, as he won just 83 out of 126 points (65.9%) on it. The Dane also served 11 aces. He served 62 winners while producing 39 unforced errors in his Australian Open first-round fixture.
While Rune may not be as aggressive in his approach as Berrettini, he is a pretty decent hitter and his defensive skills could be an ideal foil to the Italian's intensity. His stamina and movement will also come in handy but a key factor will be how he is able to return the Aussie's serves.
Rune may have a superior head-to-head record against Berrettini but the last two encounters between them were closely fought. However, given his serve and the way he played against Norrie, there is a fair chance of the Italian coming out on top.
Pick: Berrettini to win in four sets.