Australian Open 2025: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (20) Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka

Date: January 15, 2025

Tournament: Australian Open 2025

Round: Second Round (Round of 64)

Venue: Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Hard (outdoor)

Prize Money: A$ 96,500,000

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel, ESPN | UK - Eurosport | Canada - TSN, RDS

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Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka preview

Karolina Muchova at the Australian Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

20th seed Karolina Muchova will take on four-time Major champion Naomi Osaka in the second round of the Australian Open 2025.

Muchova was up against former French Open semifinalist Nadia Podoroska in her opener. The Czech star barely broke a sweat throughout the match and dropped only one game in each set to score a comfortable 6-1, 6-1 victory.

Osaka began her campaign Down Under against Caroline Garcia, who knocked her out in the first round here last year. The Japanese took control of the first set rather quickly and won five of the last six games to take the set.

All four of their previous matches were decided in straight sets. However, Garcia captured the second set to snap that streak. Osaka secured an early break in the third set to race ahead and fended off break points on her next two service games to preserve her lead.

With Garcia serving to stay in the match at 5-3, Osaka secured one final break of serve to register a 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 win. It marked her first win at the venue since 2022.

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Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka head-to-head

Muchova leads Osaka 2-1 in the head-to-head. The Czech won their previous encounter at last year's US Open in straight sets.

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Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Karolina Muchova	-275	+1.5 (-800)	Over 21.5 (-125)
Naomi Osaka	+210	-1.5 (+400)	Under 21.5 (-115)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

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Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka prediction

Naomi Osaka at the Australian Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Osaka toughed out another challenge from Garcia to begin her campaign with a win. She was more animated than usual during the match, and a wrong line call that went against her only fired her up even more. She won 78 percent of her first serve points and struck 25 winners against 28 unforced errors.

Muchova, meanwhile, cruised to an easy win against Podoroska. She won 86 percent of points on the back of her first serve and hit 23 winners compared to 10 unforced errors.

Both players made their comebacks last year, Muchova from an injury, and Osaka after giving birth to her daughter. The former had almost as many wins as the latter despite competing in half as many tournaments.

Muchova also hasn't lost before the semifinals of her last four tournaments, a streak that commenced at last year's US Open. She beat Osaka en route to the last four in New York in straight sets, after both of their previous matches had gone the distance.

Muchova thrives against big hitters such as Osaka and is the bane of the existence of another prominent shotmaker, Aryna Sabalenka. Her variety often stumps players who rely on their aggressive ball-striking. While the Japanese appears to be playing a lot better this year and has the potential to win, she will start as the underdog in this match.

Pick: Karolina Muchova to win in three sets.