Australian Open 2025: Naomi Osaka vs Belinda Bencic preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: Naomi Osaka vs (PR) Belinda Bencic

Date: January 17, 2025

Tournament: Australian Open 2025

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Venue: Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Hard (Outdoor)

Prize Money: A$ 96,500,000

Live Telecast: USA - ESPN & Tennis Channel | UK - Eurosport | India - Sony Sports & Sony LIV

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Naomi Osaka vs Belinda Bencic preview

In Picture: Naomi Osaka (Getty)

In what could be a thrilling prospect, former Australian Open champion Naomi Osaka will take on former top-10 player Belinda Bencic in the third round in Melbourne. Osaka's 2025 season is gradually getting better with every match, as the Japanese player started off her season by reaching the final at the ASB Classic. Unfortunately, she could not finish the match, retiring due to injury against Clara Tauson.

The two-time champion began her campaign at the Australian Open with a 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 win against Caroline Garcia. In the second round, she faced 20th-seeded Karolina Muchova, who had trounced the Japanese player at their last meeting at the 2024 US Open. When the Czech player won the first set 6-1 in Melbourne, it looked like a similar narrative was being played out. However, the former World No. 1 made an excellent comeback, winning 1-6, 6-1, 6-3.

Making her return to the Tour after almost a year, Belinda Bencic had an average start to the 2025 season. The Swiss player won one of her two matches at the United Cup and reached the second round of the Adelaide International as a qualifier.

However, at the Australian Open, the former World No. 4 began her campaign by upsetting the 16th-seed Jelena Ostapenko, winning 6-3, 7-6 (6). She maintained her form, winning 6-1, 7-6 (3) against Netherland's Suzan Lamens in the second round.

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Naomi Osaka vs Belinda Bencic head-to-head

Bencic leads the head-to-head 3-2 against Osaka. However, the last time these two players met, it was Osaka who won 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 at the 2022 Miami Open.

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Naomi Osaka vs Belinda Bencic odds

Player Name	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Naomi Osaka	-145	-1.5 (+155)	Over 22.5 (-105)
Belinda Bencic	+110	+1.5 (-225)	Under 22.5 (-140)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

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Naomi Osaka vs Belinda Bencic prediction

In her two matches, Osaka has won 74 percent of her first-serve points and a healthy 53 percent of her second-serve points. On the return wing, she has generated 23 break-point opportunities in the two matches she has played, converting on eight of those occasions. On her serve, she has been broken four times in the first two matches.

Meanwhile, Bencic has won 65 percent of her first serve points and 46 percent of the points on her second serve. The Swiss player has been broken seven times in the tournament so far. However, she was proficient while returning, winning 11 of the 27 break points she got in the two matches.

Osaka's strength has been her serving, whereas Bencic has shown more efficiency on the return. How the Osaka service games go, will determine the upcoming match. As she is a former champion on this court, Osaka will have a marginal advantage.

Pick- Osaka to win in three sets