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Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff will lead the field at the 2025 Australian Open, set to commence on January 12. The Belarusian is gunning for a rare hat-trick at the season’s first Slam.
Besides Gauff and Swiatek, Sabalenka faces a whole host of title hopefuls in her pursuit. Some of them have traditionally done better on Australian hardcourts than others. And here, we rank the top eight contenders for the title based on their performances at the Australian Open over the last three years.
Note: The following formula was used to calculate the power rankings: (1x points earned in the 2025 AO series + 0.5x points earned in the 2024 AO series + 0.25x points earned in the 2023 AO series). Only points earned by reaching the quarterfinals or further in a tournament are counted towards the rankings. This was done to avoid giving undue advantage to seeded players who received early-round byes in the WTA 250 and 500 tournaments.
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#8 Victoria Azarenka
Victoria Azarenka is one of only three women in this year’s draw to have lifted the Australian Open title on more than one occasion. It has, however, been a while since she got her hands on the trophy: 2013.
Nonetheless, the seasoned campaigner remains a big threat, having made the Australian Open semifinal as recently as 2023. Last year too, she had made the second week Down Under. Coming into the tournament this year, she is seeded 21st and can breathe a little early in the draw.
Azarenka’s baseline prowess has always translated into success on hardcourts and that holds especially true for Australia. Besides Melbourne, she also made the semifinals in Adelaide last year. Her start to 2025 has not been ideal (a second-round exit at Brisbane) but she has the champion qualities needed to turn things around.
#7 Madison Keys
Madison Keys can often simplify the sport of tennis. Big serve and bigger groundstrokes are her go-to play and it works wonders on hardcourts when she is dialed in.
And the start of 2025 indicates that she might as well be dialed in this year. The American made the quarterfinals at the season-opening ASB Classic before blitzing the field at Adelaide. That included wins against defending champ Jelena Ostapenko, Daria Kasatkina, Beatriz Haddad Maia and Liudmila Samsonova.
And Keys still might lift the WTA 500 crown (she is set to play the final on Sunday). The American has spoken at length about continuing to want to evolve, evidenced in her tweaked serve stance.
In a recent interview with WTA, she spoke about players hitting their peak nearing 30. She’s 29 and playing some of her best tennis. “I can’t wait to see where I’m at,” she had said heading into the Australian Open. From the looks of it, she is fairly well-placed for a big run.
#6 Jelena Osatpenko
Jelena Ostapenko has posted some big results Down Under and anchored her run to the title in Adelaide last year. She took out some talented players including Caroline Garcia, Sorana Cirstea and Marta Kostyuk en route to the WTA 500 crown.
Her best Australian Open performances has also come in the last three-year period too: a quarterfinal run at the tournament’s 2023 edition.
This year’s tournament presents a unique opportunity for Jelena Ostapenko. She comes into Melbourne having failed to defend her crown in Adelaide. Her poor start to the season has in fact seen her lose in the opening few rounds of both the Adelaide and the season-opening Brisbane International.
The Latvian nonetheless enjoys playing on the quick hardcourts and fans can expect a fair few winners (and maybe a surprise upset or two) coming off of her racket.
#5 Linda Noskova
Another big player whose booming groundstrokes are accentuated by the quick courts in this part of the world is Linda Noskova. Her love affair with Melbourne is just beginning but what a start it had last year.
Coming into the 2024 season, Noskova was a relative nobody on the Tour. But her stellar third-round upset of the then World No. 1 Iga Swiatek announced her arrival on the big stage. She laid down the mantra to fluster Swiatek: hit big and deep, don’t let up.
The Czech went on to make the quarterfinals at the Australian Open, her first at a Slam. Her summer had also been anchored by other special runs to the Adelaide final and the Brisbane semifinal.
Noskova’s game is tailor-made for the surface and while her results this year so far have not reflected on that, there’s still time for amends. And what better place to do it other than the season’s first Grand Slam.
#4 Zheng Qinwen
With 445 aces, Zheng Qinwen was the Tour leader in the service stat last year. And it all began at the Australian Open for the youngster.
Before she became the Olympic champion, Zheng had posted a big breakthrough at Melbourne by reaching her maiden Grand Slam final. She served and hit her way through the field before falling short against Sabalenka in the final.
The result is her big claim to the spot on the power rankings, but there’s little denying her talents even if there aren’t too many results to back them up.
When serving well, the Chinese player can be immensely hard to beat. She has sown the seeds of doubts over her fitness after withdrawing from the United Cup but watching her practice in Melbourne, all looks rather well. Plus the delayed start would have only fueled her hunger for success.
#3 Elena Rybakina
Elena Rybakina’s serve is one of the best out there. She trailed only Zheng in the ace count last year but there’s an argument to be made of her serve being more dependable than even Zheng’s.
When playing at her best, Rybakina can run away with matches. She showed it at the 2023 Australian Open, making it all the way to the finals with only one set dropped on the way. That run included three consecutive straight-set dismissals of fellow Grand Slam champs Ostapenko, Azarenka and Swiatek.
And if that run has begun to fade from memory, look at her more recent exploits in Adelaide, where she even handed Sabalenka a rare defeat on Australian soil, en route to the title.
With a new coaching set-up, led by Goran Ivanisevic, in place, Rybakina is looking as formidable as ever. If things start clicking for her, she could make life difficult for the rest of the field.
#2 Coco Gauff
Until last year, the Australian Open was Coco Gauff’s least successful Slam. She had never made it past the fourth round and the 7-4 win-loss record was not impressing anyone.
Determined to change that, the youngster strung together her best run at the venue. She raced past the field (barring a three-set marathon against Marta Kostyuk in the quarterfinals) to make the last four. And while she could repeat her US Open heroics against Sabalenka, the breakthrough had come.
This year, she has started the season in stellar form. A clean run at the United Cup, where she led the US team to the title, has seen her beat the likes of Swiatek, Karolina Muchova and others on a surface that is not necessarily her favorite.
Add Gauff’s two titles in Auckland to the mix and there should be very little doubt of her abilities in winning big Down Under.
#1 Defending Australian Open champ Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna Sabalenka has been virtually untouchable in Melbourne over the last couple of years. Her back-to-back runs to the title have seen her beat almost everyone that there is to beat.
Be it the 2023 final against Elena Rybakina or last year against Zheng Qinwen, she has brought her best tennis to the big matches and her confidence would be sky-high given the sort of form that she is currently in.
Sabalenka made a blistering start to 2025, winning the title in Brisbane. The result would have been even more sweet given how she had fallen at the final hurdle (against Rybakina) last year. It isn’t her only Tour-level trophy Down Under in the last three years as she had also captured the Adelaide International in 2023.
In short, Sabalenka has won big on Australian soil in recent years. Stopping her from completing a rare three-peat will take a special effort from someone in the field.
