Australian Open: Roger Federer draws a minefield

Is fate testing Roger’s obsession?

The regally disposed Swiss must have felt a lump in the throat even as he swallowed the last morsels of his Friday morning breakfast. Roger Federer may have accomplished more than any other player in the history of the game, but even that does not grant him the right to stand up against time. If obsession is at the root of Federer’s desire to pursue his love for tennis all the way to the Rio Olympics in 2016, fate decided it is time to test the strength of his obsession and depth of his love. How else could anyone explain away the draw that Roger received for the 101st Australian Open to begin at Melbourne Park on Monday? Fraught with danger at every step of the way, the road ahead for Federer is rocky and treacherous more than it has ever been through the span of his glorious career.

In a career spanning 14 years, Federer has scaled mountains without so much as breaking into a sweat. The men who met him along the way were more than happy to have passed by the master even as they ushered him through to the next landing. But time refuses to stand still even for the Zen master and the draw for next week’s Grand Slam has held him out like a prize trophy to an eager bunch of players looking to embellish their profiles and establish their reputations. If there was ever a group of death in tennis or a landmine to trudge through to reach just the second week, you would only have to look at Federer’s quarter at Melbourne. Roger has been known to ride the players to the venue in Melbourne in the past – this time he’d just be happy if he is able to buy himself a ride into the second week.

Federer’s first hurdle is a the 23-year-old from Avignon in France – Benoit Paire, the man who partnered the other Swiss star, Stanislas Wawrinka, to clinch the doubles title in Chennai recently. The only time the two met was at Basel last year, when the world No. 2 steam-rolled Paire 6-2, 6-2 to reach the semi-finals. The bigger challenge for Federer will be that the match will be his first competitive play since losing to Novak Djokovic at the Tour Finals in London. His second round opponent is the more familiar Nikolay Davydenko, who knows what it takes to tame the Swiss – having tasted success in the Tour Finals of 2009, before repeating the feat in Doha at the start of 2010 to claim only his second victory over Federer in 19 encounters.

Bernand Tomic – nothing to lose?

It only gets tougher from there for the Swiss – with the recommissioned Bernard Tomic rubbing his hands in glee at the prospect of taking on the 17-time grand slam champion with absolutely nothing to lose. The Aussie star has shown signs of a renewed commitment to the game after a miserable 2012 in which he constantly chased the headlines with everything but tennis at the centre of it. The 64th ranked player is growing in stature and the recent win over Djokovic and his maiden career finals at Sydney are layering his already confident demeanour. He could arrive in Melbourne on a high if he manages to put it past Kevin Anderson to clinch his first career title. While Federer beat the young man in straight sets to advance to the quarter-finals in Melbourne last year, the 20-year-old has grown in maturity and seemingly in good form. It could be a contest where the baton is exchanged from one generation to the next – admittedly a big ask, but certainly not beyond the realm of imagination.

Federer’s likely fourth round opponent is the Canadian Milos Raonic – an opponent he has beaten each of the three occasions they have met so far, but those matches have been won on wafer thin margins. Raonic has pushed Federer to the brink in those three matches, before succumbing in three vigorously contested sets. If both men keep this date, it could evolve into one of the most exciting matches of the first week. Federer has been struggling recently to convert his breakpoints and that developing ill habit shall only add to the intrigue surrounding this contest. The Raonic serve is among the best in the business right now; but unfortunately for the Canadian, he barely, if ever, gets his return game in order. The only dampener to the anticipation has been Raonic’s errant form heading into the year’s first major; the Canadian is 1-3 since the start of the season, including a listless loss over Fabio Fognini at the Kooyong Classic this week.

The Swiss maestro has an enviable 34 straight appearances in the last eight of Grand Slam tournaments and a victory over Raonic could lead him into a match against either Richard Gasquet or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. While Tsonga has the higher ranking, recent form suggests that Gasquet could have a slight edge over his compatriot. The fact that Gasquet won his first meeting against the Swiss way back in 2005 at the Monte Carlo Masters is testimony to the immense talent of the Frenchman. But by the same token, that Gasquet won only one more match (Rome, 2011) against the Swiss in 12 attempts is indicative of his decadence. On the other hand, Tsonga handed Federer one of the most stinging losses of his prolific career, when he created a sensation by coming from two sets down to clinch a remarkable victory in the quarter-finals of the 2011 Wimbledon.

It is a daunting task, with each of Federer’s matches from the second round fit enough to be the finals of ATP Tour events. If Federer were to survive those abrasive early round challenges, he would be faced with the task of overpowering Andy Murray and then Novak Djokovic in order to lay his hands on the Norman Brookes trophy for a fifth time in his illustrious career. It is going to be a riveting battle every step of the way, filled with intense drama and absorbing tennis – even as Federer seeks yet again to prove that age is indeed just a number.