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Aryna Sabalenka will return to defend her Australian Open crown at the season-opening Grand Slam’s 112th edition, set to get underway on Sunday (January 14).
Looking to stop the Belarussian’s charge will be top seed Iga Swiatek and last year’s runner-up Elena Rybakina. The depth of women’s tennis at the moment will once again come to the fore with multiple Slam champions, led by the returning quartet of Angelique Kerber, Caroline Wozniacki, Naomi Osaka, and Emma Raducnau, also featuring.
Add to the mix the likes of former champion Victoria Azarenka and the American duo of Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula, and you have yourself a jam-packed draw.
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Some names, however, have had considerably more success on Australian hardcourts than others in the recent past. Here, we rank the top eight contenders for the title based on their performances at the Australian Open over the last three years.
Note: The following formula was used to calculate the power rankings: (1x points earned in the 2024 AO series + 0.5x points earned in the 2023 AO series + 0.25x points earned in the 2022 AO series). Only points earned by reaching the quarterfinals or further in a tournament are counted towards the rankings. This was done to avoid giving undue advantage to seeded players who received early-round byes in the WTA 250 and 500 tournaments.
#8 Jelena Ostapenko
Jelena Ostapenko was never known for making quick starts to the new season. That, however, changed in 2023 when she made her first Australian Open quarterfinal.
Determined to back the run, which included an impressive win over Coco Gauff as well, the Latvian has made a statement start to 2024. After a run to last-eight in Brisbane, she now has three wins in Adelaide and could well find herself contesting for the title in a day.
Ostapenko's gung-ho brand of tennis can prove too hot to handle for most opponents and with the build-up that she has had, this year’s Australian Open may see her go a step further.
#7 Coco Gauff
Talking of quick starts to the season, Coco Gauff has won 10 of the 11 sets that she has played in the new year.
Gauff's back-to-back ASB Classic victories have boosted her power rankings, but her build-up to the Australian Open may differ from last year.
Gauff was running out of time to get her hands on a Grand Slam trophy while still technically qualifying as a prodigy. With the chip off her shoulder courtesy of her US Open triumph, she can play sans pressure. If her dominance in Auckland is any indicator, the freedom seems to be working wonders for her.
#6 Daria Kasatkina
Daria Kasatkina is capable of stringing together a good run Down Under despite her poor 4-6 win-loss record at the Australian Open.
That confidence stems from her multiple deep runs at tournaments in the region. She was a finalist at the Adelaide International 2023 and also had two semifinal finishes (Melbourne and Sydney) in 2022.
Like Ostapenko, Kasatkina is a contender for the championship this year. Even if her unorthodox game isn't best suited for quick courts, she has years of experience and could potentially achieve significant success.
#5 Victoria Azarenka
The last two women to have beaten Victoria Azarenka on Aussie soil were Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina. For the rest of the field, it is still hard to find a way past the two-time Australian Open champ.
The 34-year-old rolled back the years with her run to the semifinal at Melbourne Park last year, taking wins over the likes of Jessica Pegula and Madison Keys en route.
The Belarusian, who progressed to the semifinals in Brisbane earlier this month, continues to instill confidence in her abilities. And with her Australian Open pedigree being second to none from the current crop, who knows what she may have in store this time around?
#4 Iga Swiatek
On the face of it, Iga Swiatek's 15-5 win-loss record at the Australian Open is rather lackluster. The Pole, nevertheless, has made the second week on each occasion in the last three years.
Her semifinal finish from two years ago still stands out. She has also been a standout performer at the United Cup in the period which contributes to her high standing in the power rankings.
Swiatek’s big challenge will be holding off the big ball-strikers. After all, it was Elena Rybakina and Danielle Collins who hit her off the court in her last two appearances at Melbourne Park.
The quartet of Rybakina, Aryna Sabalenka, Ostapenko and Ekaterina Alexandrova had already given the big hitters a good start to the season and it will take a big effort from the Pole to dodge them.
#3 Jessica Pegula
Back-to-back quarterfinals at Melbourne Park can inspire confidence just as easily as they may hint at stagnation. But Jessica Pegula has made sure that she keeps her opponents wary with a big win outside Slams now and then.
Last year, she impressed with her United Cup upset over Iga Swiatek. Now, she finds herself in contention for another big final in Adelaide days ahead of the season’s first Grand Slam.
Pegula has lived in the shadows long enough. Hardcourts are where her flat groundstrokes shine the best and she might be eyeing the big prize at Melbourne Park this year.
#2 Elena Rybakina
Elena Rybakina has made it to at least one final, Down Under, in the last three years. She very nearly lifted a second Grand Slam title at the 2023 Australian Open only to come up just short in the final against Sabalenka. The run nonetheless saw her win-loss record improve to an impressive 10-4 (71%).
And while her runs to the final at the Adelaide International in 2022 and the Brisbane title last week may fade in comparison, they still hold her in good stead.
The Kazakh was particularly impressive in Brisbane, scoring one ruthless win after the other. Those included a 6-0, 6-3 dismissal of Sabalenka in the final.
It took lights-out hitting from Ekaterina Alexandrova to stop Rybakina’s march in Adelaide, but an early exit may be a blessing in disguise as it gives her a few days to rest and recharge for another big run at Melbourne Park.
#1 Australian Open defending champ Aryna Sabalenka
Twelve months after lifting her maiden Grand Slam trophy at the Australian Open, Aryna Sabalenka will be back at Melbourne Park as one of the top seeds.
A largely successful swing Down Under — one that saw her lift a title in Adelaide as well — set the stage for the Belarusian to unleash her full potential. She would later go on to attain, for however brief a period, the World No. 1 ranking.
Sabalenka, however, is not sitting on past results to speak for her. She was solid in her run at Brisbane earlier this month, dominating her opponents until being somewhat dismantled by Rybakina in the summit clash.
But Sabalenka has previously shown that failure fuels her hunger even more. The big-hitting Belarusian possesses the weapons needed to turn any match-up on its head. Much like her trajectory in any given match, one can expect some highs and lows. The lows, however, are often upstaged by the glorious highs.
