BNP Paribas Open 2023 Final: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina preview, head-to-head & prediction | Indian Wells

Match Details

Fixture: (2) Aryna Sabalenka vs (10) Elena Rybakina

Date: Saturday, March 18

Tournament: BNP Paribas Open

Round: Final

Venue: Indian Wells, California, USA

Category: WTA 1000

Surface: Outdoor hardcourt

Prize money: $8,800,000

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina preview

Sabalenka is on a roll.

Second seed Aryna Sabalenka will take on tenth seed Elena Rybakina in the Indian Wells final on Saturday (March 18), in a rematch of this year's Australian Open title match.

World No. 2 Sabalenka continued her sublime start to the year in the semifinals, beating last year's finalist Maria Sakkari for the loss of just five games to improve to 17-1 in 2023. That's the joint-most WTA main draw wins this year (also Caroline Garcia, 17-7).

The reigning Australian Open champion has dropped only one set in four matches this week - her third-round 'win' over Lesia Tsurenko was a walkover. After suffering her only loss of the year in the Dubai quarterfinals to eventual winner Barbora Krejcikova, Sabalenka is now into her third final in four tournaments.

Meanwhile, the tenth-ranked Rybakina ended the run of defending champion Iga Swiatek in the last four to reach her first WTA 1000 final. The Australian Open finalist has dropped just one set in five matches this week - against Karolina Muchova in the quarterfinals.

Against an injured Swiatek, Rybakina dropped only four games as she reached her second final of the season and improved to 15-4. She will now lock horns against a familiar opponent as a first WTA 1000 title beckons for the reigning Wimbledon champion.

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina head-to-head

Sabalenka has won all four previous matchups with Rybakina. The pair's last meeting was in the Australian Open final this year, which the Belarusian won in three sets.

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total games (over/under)
Aryna Sabalenka	-155	-1.5 (+140)	Over 21.5 (-135)
Elena Rybakina	+130	+1.5 (-200)	Under 21.5 (-105)

All odds are as per BetMGM.

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina prediction

Rybakina is into her first WTA 1000 final.

There's very little to choose between Sabalenka and Rybakina in terms of their game styles. Both are powerful servers, hit big off either flank, move well, and tend to play their best tennis on hardcourts.

While Sabalenka's serve was once a liability, it's one of her biggest strengths now as she looks to extend her perfect 3-0 WTA 1000 final record against a familiar opponent.

Rybakina cannot be taken lightly, though, coming off her second win over World No. 1 Swiatek in 2023. The Kazakh sent down 18 winners and saved all five break points against the Pole in the last four.

Sabalenka also had a dominating win in the last four, hitting 21 winners and going 5/10 on break points against Sakkari. The Belarusian has had Rybakina's number, winning all four previous meetings, but each contest has gone the distance.

She's also the fresher of the two players and should take this one.

Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka in three sets