Can Carlos Alcaraz accomplish at US Open 2023 what no man since Roger Federer has achieved?

Over the last two years, Carlos Alcaraz has had a growing penchant for breaking records in tennis. The Spaniard became the youngest World No. 1 last year with his US Open triumph, while also becoming the first player in the 21st century to have won a Major tournament after winning three 5-set matches.

The Spaniard has continued in the same vein in 2023, breaking a few more records by virtue of his Wimbledon title victory. Alcaraz ascended to World No. 1 once again in July following his championship match win over Novak Djokovic, and since then he hasn't relinquished the top spot, becoming the youngest male No. 1 seed at the US Open in tennis history.

He will now be looking to achieve yet another incredible feat at the New York Major, which is defending his title. Since the inception of the Major tournament in 1968, only seven male players have managed to defend the title at Flushing Meadows.

More interestingly, no male player has defended the US Open title since Roger Federer, who won five back-to-back titles in New York from 2004-08.

Let's take a deep dive into how likely it is for Alcaraz to match the Swiss maestro's achievement, and just how splendid the achievement of defending the US Open title is:

Carlos Alcaraz has an incredibly tough draw to navigate through if he wants to emulate Roger Federer

Carlos Alcaraz got no favours in terms of his draw at the 2023 US Open

The tennis draw gods have been harsh on Carlos Alcaraz once again. The Spaniard has received a fairly tough draw at this year's US Open, with the possibility of him defending his 2022 crown taking a serious hit thanks to his potential opponents.

The World No. 1 opens his New York campaign against Germany's Dominik Koepfer. The going gets a bit tough for him from there on, as he could face the big-serving Lloyd Harris in the second round and either one of Dan Evans or Jordan Thompson in the third round.

Provided he navigates through his first three matches, Carlos Alcaraz could then face 12th-seeded Cameron Norrie — who has beaten him twice in their overall head-to-head meetings. The Brit possesses lungs of steel and would be ready to go to the distance with his younger opponent, who himself has an inclination towards playing long matches.

An even tougher potential match-up awaits him in the quarterfinals, as he could face either Jannik Sinner or Alexander Zverev — two players who have troubled him immensely in the past. Sinner even defeated Alcaraz in their last encounter in Miami. Zverev, meanwhile, had last defeated the Spaniard in 2022, and even though he is a shadow of his past self, his sluggish game will take plenty out of the Spaniard if he intends to reach the semifinals.

2021 US Open winner Daniil Medvedev then awaits him in the semifinals. Alcaraz could very well have little left in his tank by the time he reaches the Russian, who himself doesn't have a tough draw at all. Their match would likely extend beyond three sets on the medium-paced courts in Flushing Meadows.

And if Carlos Alcaraz somehow manages to win that potential match, his opponent in the final? Novak Djokovic. The Serb already shot a warning to the 20-year-old at last week's Cincinnati Open by overcoming him in the championship match in four hours. Djokovic will again be ready to go to the limit against his younger challenger, if the situation demands it.

This means that it could be tough for him to match Federer's achievement of winning back-to-back US Open titles.

Roger Federer achieved the feat of winning back-to-back US Open titles in a simpler time

20-time Major winner Roger Federer had a far less taxing style of play than Carlos Alcaraz

Back when Federer won his five consecutive titles in Flushing Meadows, your average ATP tour player didn't have as animalistic a playing style as Alcaraz.

Nowadays, most players are neutral baseliners, which means rallies are endless, and even a machine like him is bound to get tired. But in Federer's heyday, rally length used to be far less and players had a lot more variety than today's crop on ATP.

It is important to note that the cumulative wear and tear for Carlos Alcaraz and Rpger Federer has been historically different. For academic purposes, while Alcaraz has featured in only 12 tournaments in 2023 thus far, he has spent endless hours and points on the court in one tussle after another (he missed this year's Australian Open due to injury).

The Swiss maestro himself normally used to play just as many tournaments as the young Spaniard in the lead-up to the US Open. But his matches would be far from a tussle. In fact, he won many of his early-round matches in less than two hours during his prime, as he subjugated his opponents with his signature serve-and-forehand combo.

The Match Charting Project by Tennis Abstract offers more insight into how Roger Federer and Carlos Alcaraz may have experienced different amounts of wear and tear. According to the data, while the Swiss maestro's average rally length in 631 charted matches was 3.8, the Spaniard's average rally length in 103 matches thus far is 4.0.

Roger Federer and Carlos Alcaraz's average rally length during their respective careers (Credits: Tennis Abstract)

These numbers might seem close on the surface. But when we consider the fact that Federer played a far more disproportionate amount of matches against top players (and way more matches in general), it becomes abundantly clear that he had a far easier time winning matches against the best-of-the-best.

Carlos Alcaraz, meanwhile, often struggles to win cheap points on his serve and doesn't have the 20-time Grand Slam champion's ability to win countless points at the net. And while he does have a controlled aggression that can be compared to the Swiss, he makes far more unforced errors than the young version of Federer.

In that context, it makes a lot of sense why the Roger Federer was able to defend the US Open title so many times in the 2000s. It was made possible by an efficient style of play and an altogether different era of tennis.

While Carlos Alcaraz is also capable of matching his feat one day, he would need to modify his game a lot. All things considered, it is more than likely that he may not be able to defend his 2022 US Open crown yet, and that the hours he has endured on the court in 2023 will eventually cost him greatly in New York.