Can Joao Fonseca join Carlos Alcaraz & Jannik Sinner for the new 'Big Three' tennis has been yearning for?

In his match against Andrey Rublev at this year's Australian Open, 18-year-old Brazilian Joao Fonseca recorded exactly 65 winners. Fourteen of them were service winners, but hitting 51 "regular" winners in three sets is still a remarkable feat.

Although all three sets were tight, the impression left behind was that this incredible young player had simply dismantled ninth-seeded Rublev. And those who hadn't yet heard of the name Joao Fonseca were now left practically in shock. An inspired Fonseca had just taken apart a top-10 player, and the whole "aha moment" was made even more electric by the Brazilian fans, who brought a touch of football-like fanaticism to Margaret Court Arena.

What stood out the most were those unbelievable winners, because that’s simply what Fonseca does. He overwhelms you and crushes you with his brand of tennis.

And it doesn’t even have to be outright winners all the time—his sheer shot power puts opponents under enormous pressure. The problem is compounded by the fact that he already has a strong and consistent serve—along with those 14 service winners, he also hit 14 aces in that match. He’s able to take control of points very early, which means that once he gets on top, the point is often already decided.

Fonseca, of course, is far from being a one-dimensional player. He already has an excellent drop shot, isn’t afraid to finish points at the net, and will even play serve-and-volley when needed. But those baseline winners, those bombs, are what linger most in memory. It’s hardly surprising, then, that one of his forehand winners in that match clocked in at 181 km/h, the fastest winner of the tournament at that point. Including those 14 service winners, Fonseca’s winners made up exactly 34% of all points played.

Just to put that into perspective: Carlos Alcaraz has played only three matches in which he recorded a higher percentage—perhaps more, since not every match of his career has been fully tracked statistically, but most have. And none of them were best-of-five. Jannik Sinner? According to available records, he hasn’t played a single one. His style differs slightly from Alcaraz’s and Fonseca’s, but he, too, plays aggressive tennis and can produce winners from seemingly impossible positions. Ultimately, that’s the style of play that pays off the most in this decade, and it’s just one of the many reasons why Fonseca will soon be contending for the biggest titles.

Another reason? The kid is simply not normal. In any sense of the word.

Just one month after the match that introduced him to the wider public, Joao Fonseca won his first ATP title. Last Sunday (February 16), in Buenos Aires, he defeated Francisco Cerundolo 6-4, 7-6 to win the Argentina Open—an atmosphere electric enough to feel like an Argentina vs Brazil Davis Cup clash. At 18 years and five months old, he became the youngest ATP title winner since Alcaraz in Umag 2021. In this century, the only younger ATP title winners? Alcaraz, Rafael Nadal, and Kei Nishikori.

Can Joao Fonseca become part of the next Big Three with Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz?

Argentina Open Final Joao Fonseca - Source: Getty

It’s a very interesting question to examine and something that might just happen. When you look at the stats and the eye test, he does play like a player similar to them. He even trumps them in some statistical areas, so it’s not impossible to imagine him inserting himself into that conversation. There were other players capable of that as well, but for now, he is the most talented young player who fits the description of a third member of that potential future tennis triumvirate.

Much will depend on how Joao Fonseca handles the moments that follow. He didn’t handle it well in Rio, getting beaten easily in the first round, but he was rather tired and probably felt the pressure of coming back home as a superstar. He’s only 18, after all, and will learn with time. There is plenty of time, though some expect his meteoric rise to continue this year.

Some will argue he could break into the top 10 by the end of the year—he’s currently ranked No. 68—but that’s hard to predict. Either way, it wouldn’t be entirely shocking or far-fetched if it happened.

On the other hand, nothing is guaranteed. For now, Joao Fonseca’s first challenge will be weathering the wave of hype that is slowly but surely building. Still, it’s not unreasonable to think that tennis may soon have its Third One.

Because once upon a time, Federer and Nadal gained a new rival in Novak Djokovic. And now, Sinner and Alcaraz may soon find theirs in Joao Fonseca.

We can only hope.