China Open 2013: Men’s semi-final preview – Can Nadal reach the No. 1 spot?

It seems a foregone conclusion that the Spaniard and the Serbian will clash for the final showdown. If that happens, the World No. 2 Rafael Nadal will claim the top spot from current World No. 1 Novak Djokovic.

As exhilarating as the final is anticipated to be, there is one hurdle for Nadal to reach the finals at the China Open to replace Djokovic from the top spot, and that is defeating Tomas Berdych in the quarterfinal.

So let’s look at who has a better chance to reach the finals by previewing the Rafael Nadal v Tomas Berdych and Novak Djokovic v Richard Gasquet semifinals.

Rafael Nadal(2) v Tomas Berdych(4) (Head to Head, Nadal leads 15-3)

Nadal has made his way through to the semifinal of the China Open in Bejing after registering a hard-fought come-from-behind win over Fabio Fognini.

Winning this match is important for Nadal, as it will put take back to the World No. 1 spot. Recently, Nadal defeated Berdych in the semi-finals at Cincinnati, and has done the same on six other times on hardcourts. Berdych has been unable to defeat Nadal in a match since 2006. They are facing each other for the 19th time, and the fourth time in 2013, with Nadal winning the prior three.

World number 5 Nadal has defeated Santiago Giraldo, Philipp Kohlschreiber and Fabio Fognini, the last by the score of 2-6, 6-4, 6-1 on his way to the semis.

Berdych destroyed John Isner 7-5, 6-2 in his quarterfinal.

Statistically, the odds are set in Nadal’s favour. But Nadal was facing knee problems in the quarterfinal against Fognini, and Berdych might have a slight physical advantage over him.

Prediction: Nadal in three sets.

Novak Djokovic (1) v Richard Gasquet (5) (Head-to-head: Djokovic leads 8-1)

Top seed Novak Djokovic will clash with world number 10 Richard Gasquet, coming head-to-head for the tenth time. Most of their earlier matches have been won by Djokovic, and he leads 6-1 on hardcourts, so it will be a tough assignment for Gasquet to defeat the top seed.

In the last clash between the two, in the Rogers Cup at Montreal, Novak Djokovic had an easy win on the hardcourt, defeating Gasquet in straight sets, 6-1, 6-2.

However, Gasquet is right now playing some of his best tennis. He reached the US Open semi-final, and has reached so far in the China Open by defeating Florian Mayer, Bernard Tomic and David Ferrer, all in straight sets. Gasquet seem to be in the form of his life.

Djokovic, who will lose his top spot if Nadal beats Berdych, is also playing well after his final loss to Nadal at the US Open this year. He has defeated Lukas Rosol 6-0, 6-3 and Sam Querrey 6-1, 6-2.

Though the Frenchman should give better competition to the Serbian, whether he can conquer the world number 1 is definitely a big question mark. Djokovic looks confident to face his long-time rival in the final – Rafael Nadal – seeking revenge for his last defeat.

Prediction: Djokovic wins in straight sets.