China Open 2024: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (2) Carlos Alcaraz vs (3) Daniil Medvedev

Date: 1 October 2024

Time: Note before 4:00 p.m. local time, 3:00 a.m. ET, 8:00 a.m. BST, & 12:30 p.m. IST

Tournament: 2024 China Open

Round: Semifinal

Venue: National Tennis Center, Beijing, China

Category: ATP 500

Surface: Hardcourt

Prize Money: $3,720,165

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky | Canada - TSN | India - Tennis Channel

Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev preview

Carlos Alcaraz in action at the 2024 China Open (Picture: Getty)

Second seed Carlos Alcaraz will lock horns with third seed and last year's losing finalist Daniil Medvedev in a tantalizing semifinal clash at the 2024 China Open on Tuesday, 1 October. They will play the third match on the Capital Group Diamond Arena after Zhang Shuai and Magdalena Frech's women's singles fourth-round encounter.

Alcaraz opened his campaign in the Chinese capital with a routine 6-4, 6-4 win over Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. He stepped it up in the second round, dominating Tallon Griekspoor to seal a 6-1, 6-2 victory in just 56 minutes.

In the quarterfinals against Karen Khachanov, Alcaraz took the early lead but was immediately broken back by the Russian. After trading breaks once more, Alcaraz secured the decisive break in the eleventh game and served out the first set. The second set was more one-sided, with Alcaraz dominating proceedings to seal a 7-5, 6-2 win.

Medvedev began his Beijing campaign with a routine 6-3, 6-4 win over Gael Monfils in the first round. He followed it up with a 7-6(6), 6-2 victory against another French veteran in the form of Adrian Mannarino in the second round.

In the quarterfinals against Flavio Cobolli, Medvedev dominated from the baseline, securing an early break in the first set. Another break in the seventh game proved enough as he went on to comfortably close the set. More of the same followed in the second set, with Medvedev breaking serve in the fifth game to love. That break proved decisive as he went on to seal a 6-2, 6-4 win.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev head-to-head

Carlos Alcaraz leads Daniil Medvedev 5-2 in their head-to-head. He won their previous encounter 6-7(1), 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 in the semifinals of the Wimbledon Championships earlier this year. They've met thrice on hardcourts, with Alcaraz leading their 2-1 here too.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bet	Total Games
Carlos Alcaraz	-350	+1.5 (-900)	Over 22.5 (+105)
Daniil Medvedev	+240	-1.5 (+425)	Under 22.5 (-155)

(Odds sourced from BetMGM)

Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev prediction

Daniil Medvedev in action at the 2024 China Open (Picture: Getty)

Carlos Alcaraz maintained his dominant form in the quarterfinals, despite a below-par serving performance. He made up for it while returning, winning 37 of 75 return points, and converting 4 out of 12 break points. His net play was good, seeing him win 94% of points when moving forward.

Medvedev, on the other hand, returned to top form in his quarterfinal, dominating across the board. He won 78% of his first-serve points and excelled on big points, converting four of eight break opportunities and saving 10 of 11. He was also sharp at the net, winning 88% of those points, while also securing 52% of return points.

Alcaraz enters this match as the favorite, thanks to his recent dominance over Medvedev in their head-to-head meetings and his superior form overall. He also boasts a stronger hardcourt record this year at 21-4, compared to the Russian's 25-9. Additionally, Alcaraz has reached four semifinals this year, while Medvedev has advanced past only two.

A grilling encounter can be expected between the two hardcourt specialists. The rugged surface could suit Medvedev slightly more, but Alcaraz's blistering form of late should see him eventually seal the win.

Pick: Alcaraz in three sets.