Cincinnati Masters 2020: Why Novak Djokovic may not be the outright favorite to win the title

Novak Djokovic has a staggering win-loss record of 18-0 in 2020 so far. The World No. 1 has had a near-perfect year – at least in terms of his on-court exploits – and will be raring to hit the ground running at the Cincinnati Masters this week.

But contrary to what many people believe, Djokovic might not be the outright favorite going into the tournament. Wait, wait – hear us out before you protest!

Novak Djokovic is far and away the best tennis player in the world, and had also won this tournament just two years ago. There are, however, a few exceptional circumstances this year that might make his path a little harder than usual.

A tricky draw for the World No. 1 at the Cincinnati Masters

Novak Djokovic will play in the top half of the draw, which also has No. 3 seed Daniil Medvedev, No. 5 seed Felix Auger Aliassime (who might be the Serb's first seeded opponent in the tournament), No. 7 seed David Goffin and No. 8 seed Roberto Bautista Agut (who has given Djokovic a lot of trouble lately).

To add to that, Marin Cilic and Tennys Sandgren are also lurking in this tightly packed section.

🚨 The #CInCyTENNIS @atptour draw is out! 🚨Starting our thread at the top section 👇 pic.twitter.com/5ievIOVxnp

— Western & Southern Open (@CincyTennis) August 20, 2020

Having entered the 2019 edition of the Western & Southern Open as the defending champion, Djokovic was beaten 3-6 6-3 6-3 by Medvedev in the semifinal. He also suffered losses to Stefanos Tsitsipas and Dominic Thiem towards the end of 2019, signaling a newfound vulnerability to the younger generation - at least in the best-of-three format.

Needless to say, all those players are present in the draw at Cincinnati. Djokovic will have to watch out for each of them as he attempts to maintain his perfect 2020 record.

Novak Djokovic has a relatively poor record at the Western & Southern Open

Novak Djokovic has suffered five losses in the Cincinnati finals, including three to Roger Federer

While Novak Djokovic is the only player to have the complete set of ATP Masters titles in his trophy cabinet, it was the Cincinnati crown that was missing from the list the longest.

The Serb has an average winning rate of 82% in all Masters 1000 events, but that number drops to 74% in Cincinnati – by far the lowest. He has also been beaten in five finals at the event, which is his joint-highest tally among all Masters tournaments.

The Serb had to make 14 appearances in Cincinnati before he finally got his hands on the trophy in 2018. Admittedly, the tournament is being held in New York this year, so Djokovic won't have to deal with the Ohio city conditions that usually make him uncomfortable. But his statistical history wouldn't give him a lot of confidence going into the event this year.

Lack of drive post the cathartic 2018 triumph

It took Novak Djokovic five years to get his hands on the Roland Garros trophy in 2016, where he finally completed his Career Grand Slam. The feat required years of dedication, patience and perseverance, and you could see the relief on his face when he got to the finish line.

I’m happy to confirm that I‘ll participate at #CincyTennis and #USOpen this year. It was not an easy decision to make with all the obstacles and challenges on many sides, but the prospect of competing again makes me really excited 😃💪🏼 https://t.co/qgxSTHrKK4 pic.twitter.com/tg6rgwfFqm

— Novak Djokovic (@DjokerNole) August 13, 2020

While clay is considered to be his second favored surface, Novak Djokovic hasn't been able to win the French Open since. After investing a gargantuan amount of time and effort into achieving the elusive goal, the Serb has struggled to motivate himself to the same level in Paris the last four years.

That could well happen with Cincinnati too. After winning the tournament in 2018, Djokovic looked surprisingly lackluster last year even though he reached the semifinal. If his motivation levels are not at their fullest this year, the likes of Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev could easily take advantage.

Novak Djokovic is usually a slow starter after a long break

Novak Djokovic has not really had a smooth lockdown period

While Novak Djokovic hasn't been as unlucky with injuries as his rival Rafael Nadal, he has had to deal with a few forced breaks in his career too. The 33-year-old's longest hiatus came in 2017 due to an elbow injury, for which he underwent surgery in 2018.

It took Djokovic a lot of time to find his best form after the break; he was unable to win a trophy in his first eight tournaments of 2018. He did finally find form at Wimbledon that year, where he won his first Major since Roland Garros 2016.

While the 2020 break hasn't been caused by any injury, the Serb could still find it hard to hit the ground running at Cincinnati.

Djokovic's lockdown phase was marred with a spate of controversies, which peaked with him testing positive for COVID-19. The physical effects of that setback, coupled with the mental stress of all the criticism that has come in its wake, can take a toll even on someone as strong as Djokovic.

It might take the Serb a while to get back to his best upon his return to competitive tennis. And the week-long Cincinnati Masters might not provide enough of that.

All that said, Novak Djokovic has proven multiple times in his career that he has it in him to overcome the most hopeless of odds. So while he would have to face a few more obstacles than usual at the Western & Southern Open this year, writing him off altogether would be a mistake.