Cincinnati Masters Quarterfinal Preview - Rafael Nadal vs Roger Federer

Rafael Nadal vs Roger Federer – The rivalry continues

It’s that match-up again. Even though it does not hold the same awe it once did, the Federer-Nadal rivalry will be renewed in Cincinnati on Friday, when Rafael Nadal will take on Roger Federer in the quarter-finals of Western & Southern Open.

Nadal leads 20-10 in the head-to-head, but that number hardly counts when these two meet on the court.

Nadal has been the player of the season so far – despite his hiccup at the Wimbledon. He has torn the field apart, winning 8 titles, including 4 Masters titles (Indian Wells, Madrid, Rome and Montreal) and his 8th French Open.

Having been away from tennis for almost a year with a recurring knee problem, Nadal has shown no signs of stopping, especially by beating Djokovic in the semis recently in Montreal. He seems to be on an upward march in form.

Federer, on the other hand, is most definitely on a downward slide – his only title of the year came at Halle, and he has had a string of bad results all throughout the year. His disappointment at Wimbledon, his subsequent racquet change at Gstaad and Hamburg, his return to his former racquet here in Cincinnati – it’s all been well-documented, and has been painful for Federer fans.

Both Nadal and Federer were tested in their 3rd round matches, with Nadal surviving a spirited fight from Grigor Dimitrov (6-2, 5-7, 6-2) and Federer completing a dramatic turnaround over Tommy Haas (1-6, 7-5, 6-3) after having been breadsticked in the first set.

With Nadal, the fightback is expected – he’s a warrior, and his mental strength is perhaps the best on tour – it was no surprise that Dimitrov couldn’t keep up with him.

With Federer, having been 1-6, 1-3 down, to fight back and win is unexpected – his mental strength is often cited as his Achilles heel – it was a pleasant surprise to see him doggedly fighting it out and winning that match. It must have given him a lot of confidence, and as he says himself, it’s matches that he needs right now.

From a Nadal fan’s perspective, it’s easy to see him winning this match. He’s in prime form, his knees are okay, he’s brimming with confidence, and his opponent is particularly low on confidence – it couldn’t be better if he wanted it to.

From a Federer fan’s perspective, it’s a bit difficult to see him winning this match but such is tennis – it’s quite unpredictable (though not as much as other sports).

The author has grown tired of saying this, but Federer has to do more with his returns – chipping it back near the service line is inviting trouble, and Paul Annacone should have seen this – it’s a puzzle why Federer hasn’t done something about it.

The only way Federer could win is if Nadal has one of his off days, and Federer has one of his particularly good days, with minimal unforced errors. It must be pointed out, however, that the probability of that occurring is astronomically low.

From a neutral perspective, it’s hard to see a winner other than Nadal in this match. When Federer was at his prime, it was difficult for him to get past Nadal, now when Federer is at one of his all-time career lows and Nadal is in rampant form, it would be an even higher mountain to climb.

I predict Nadal to take this match in two sets, the second of which might go to a tiebreak.