Coco Gauff vs Aryna Sabalenka: Who is the presumptive Australian Open favorite now after title-winning start to 2025?

Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka have kicked off their 2025 seasons on the best note possible. The American guided her nation to United Cup glory while the Belarusian picked up yet another title on the tour at Brisbane. However, Sabalenka will be the presumptive favorite to win the 2025 Australian Open over Gauff.

The two women now turn their attention towards the first Grand Slam of the year and will be the top two contenders for the title, given their recent form. However, one has a slight edge over the other. The 2025 Australian Open begins on Sunday (Jan. 12) with the final to be played on January 26.

Aryna Sabalenka, who will be the two-time defending champion at the 2025 Australian Open, played at the Brisbane International in preparation for the event in Melbourne. She was the top seed at the WTA 500 tournament and dropped only one set en route to the title. The World no. 1 bettered Renata Zarazua, Yulia Putintseva, Marie Bouzkova, Mirra Andreeva and Polina Kudermetova in Brisbane.

Meanwhile, Coco Gauff was in sync throughout the 2025 United Cup and guided the United States to its second title in three years. She did not lose a single set throughout the tournament and defeated Leylah Fernandez, Donna Vekic, Zhang Shuai, Karolina Muchova and Iga Swiatek in her campaign.

Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka's title runs, coupled with their form on hard courts over the last six months, make them prime favorites for the 2025 Australian Open. However, the duo's odds of winning the title in Melbourne are not the same.

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Aryna Sabalenka is slightly more favored to win Australian Open 2025 over Coco Gauff

Aryna Sabalenka (Source: Getty)

While Coco Gauff beat some quality opponents, all of whom have reached at least a Grand Slam quarterfinal, at the United Cup and closed the gap between her and Sabalenka in the favorites' chart, the Belarusian's familiarity with Melbourne's surface and history at the tournament gives her a slight edge.

In both her title runs at the Australian Open, Sabalenka dropped only one set combined (against Elena Rybakina in the 2023 final). Her form in Melbourne became lethal in 2024 when she swept aside Ella Seidel, Brenda Fruhvirtova, Lesia Tsurenko, Amanda Anisimova, Babora Krejecikova, Coco Gauff and Zheng Qinwen en route to the Daphne Akhurst Trophy.

Interestingly, Gauff was the only player who gave Sabalenka a bit of a scare in 2024 as she pushed the Belarusian to a tiebreaker in the first set of their semifinal but to no avail. Both Sabalenka and Gauff have form on their side. The World No. 1 had a fantastic American hardcourt swing, winning 13 matches on the trot and picking up the title at the WTA 1000 Cincinnati Open and the US Open.

Meanwhile, Gauff raised her level during the Asian swing, winning the WTA 1000 China Open and the WTA Finals in Riyadh. However, the pressure of a Grand Slam is a different ballgame altogether. And no woman has handled it better Down Under than Aryna Sabalenka in recent years.

A couple of years ago, both women had similar problems with their games. Their serves were shaky under pressure and more susceptible to double faults than their peers. Their forehands were a bit wayward and prone to crumbling under pressure. However, the duo has done a remarkable job correcting these deficits in their games, with Sabalenka doing a better job in both departments than Gauff.

Coco Gauff is expected to make a deep run at the 2025 Australian Open and could very well reach the final. Still, Aryna Sabalenka remains primed to complete a historic three-peat at the tournament this year.