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Match Details
Fixture: Italy vs Argentina
Date: November 21, 2024
Tournament: Davis Cup Finals 2024
Round: Quarterfinals
Venue: Martin Carpena Arena, Malaga, Spain
Category: Davis Cup
Surface: Hard (Indoor)
Prize Money: $2,678,571
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - BBC | Canada - CBC, TVA | Italy - Sky Italia, Super Tennis | Argentina - DirectTV, TyC Sports
Italy vs Argentina preview
Defending champions Italy will take on Argentina in the quarterfinals of the Davis Cup Finals 2024 on Thursday (November 21).
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Italy kicked off their title defense with a solid campaign during the group stage in September. They topped the group with 2-1 wins over Belgium, Brazil, and the Netherlands. They went 6-3 in matches, with two of those losses coming in doubles.
Argentina lost their first group tie 2-1 against Canada. They were outplayed in both singles matches, and won the doubles match as a consolation. They bounced back with a 2-1 win over Great Britain to keep themselves in contention. They won their singles matches this time but came up short in doubles. They finished their campaign on a high as they shut out Finland 3-0 to qualify for the quarterfinals by placing second in their group.
Italy and Argentina have previously faced off five times, with four of those ties taking place in the past decade. The former have a narrow 3-2 lead over the latter in this rivalry. The Italians have won their last two ties, in 2022 and 2017.
Italy will be represented by Jannik Sinner, Lorenzo Musetti, Matteo Berrettini, Andrea Vavassori and Simone Bolelli in the quarterfinals. The Argentinian squad consists of Sebastian Baez, Francisco Cerundolo, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Andres Molteni and Maximo Gonzalez.
With a spot in the semifinals up for grabs, here's a look at how it could play out in the quarterfinals (Match-ups are subject to change):
#1 - Jannik Sinner vs Sebastian Baez
This match-up is likely to go Sinner's way, and for good reason. He has an impressive 70-6 record this season, with eight titles, and is on an 11-match winning streak, with 10 of those wins coming in straight sets. He also has a 9-1 record in singles at the Davis Cup.
Baez, meanwhile, has a 31-27 record this season, and won a couple of titles as well. He hasn't really stepped up for Argentina thus far, and has a 3-4 record at the Davis Cup. All of his wins have been on clay, and he has lost all of his matches on hardcourts.
Baez has lost to the Italian twice in the past, including their most recent meeting at this year's Australian Open, where he could muster only four games across three sets. Given Sinner's form, this is likely to be another one-sided duel.
#2 - Lorenzo Musetti vs Francisco Cerundolo
Musetti's career-best season saw him reach the Wimbledon semifinals, along with three finals. He has compiled a 40-27 record for the year so far, and his Davis Cup record stands at 2-4 in singles.
Cerundolo has notched up a 34-31 record in 2024 thus far, and has a 5-4 record while playing for Argentina in the Davis Cup. He won his most recent encounter against Musetti in the final of this year's Croatia Open, though the Italian won their first match in Hamburg two years ago.
Cerundolo has been rather inconsistent this year, while Musetti has performed really well in the second half of the season. The Italian has also won all of his Davis Cup matches indoors, and with this match being indoors as well, it could turn the tide in his favor once again.
#3 - Andrea Vavassori/Simone Bolelli vs Andres Molteni/Maximo Gonzalez
Vavassori and Bolelli reached the Australian Open and French Open finals, and won three titles. Molteni and Gonzalez won two titles, and made the final of the Shanghai Masters.
Molteni and Gonzalez have beaten the Italians twice this year, recently in Shanghai and prior to that in Barcelona. Vavassori and Bolelli came out on top when they crossed paths in Monte Carlo.
While the Italians have had better results this year, the Argentinians have a slight advantage in this match-up. This contest could swing either way, though the defending champions could come out on top since they're playing on their turf.
Italy vs Argentina odds
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)
Italy vs Argentina prediction
The singles match-ups are skewed heavily in Italy's favor. If they win both of them, the question of playing doubles doesn't even arise. Sinner will be expected to win given his form. That puts Argentina under immense pressure to win the other singles tie.
If they do manage to win that, then they could have a shot in doubles. However, Musetti, or if he's replaced by Berrettini, are both solid players, and will be favored to beat their Argentinian rivals. Argentina are the massive underdogs here, and based on their players' results, Italy should be able to continue with their title defense.
Pick: Italy to win 2-0.
