Novak Djokovic in pole position to secure the year-end top ranking with Paris Masters win

Roger Federer (left) and Novak Djokovic (right)

Novak Djokovic recorded his 600th match win on Sunday en route to winning his 20th Masters 1000 series title. The world number 1 comprehensively defeated Canadian Milos Raonic in straight sets 6-2, 6-3 at the Palais Omnisports de Paris-Bercy. This victory helped the Serb to create a huge points difference between him and second-placed Roger Federer.

A quarterfinal loss to Milos Raonic severely dented the Swiss maestro’s chances of reclaiming the number 1 ranking. With Djokovic’s win, the two are now separated by 1310 points with 1500 points to play for at the World Tour Finals. However, there is still a slim chance that Federer could usurp the Serb for the top ranking.

Ranking Points at the World Tour Finals

Each match of the group stage at the World Tour Finals fetches 200 ranking points for the winner. A single win in the group stage would give Djokovic a lead which cannot be covered by Federer at the World Tour finals. Even if Federer goes on to win the title at the O2 arena, the Serb would still hold a lead of 10 points with his single win in the group stage. A semifinal win would fetch 400 points while a win in the final would earn the winner 500 points.

However, here comes the crunch part all is not lost for the Swiss number 1 as he could still recover some ranking points as he would be fighting for the Davis Cup title against France in Lille.

Davis Cup ATP ranking points

For the calculation of the rankings, a total of best 6 performances at the ATP 500, 250 and other events is considered. Since Roger Federer has less than 6 events played this year, the Davis Cup would account in the final calculation of the rankings.

The 33-year old has played 5 live rubber ties this year and has won all his matches. The total ranking points earned by him so far is as follows:

40 points (win over Serbia)

130 points (win over Kazakhstan)

140 points (win over Italy)

This gives him a total of 310 points. If Federer wins both live rubbers and Switzerland defeats France, then he would gain 150 points and a bonus of 75 points for winning the title and 7 live rubbers for his team. So, he effectively can earn a maximum of 225 points from the Davis Cup title match.

All-in-all, the Basel resident can earn a maximum of 1725 points from the remaining two competitions.

Permutations for the year end ranking

So, here are all the possible permutations for the year-end number 1 ranking:

If Djokovic wins all his group matches, he is assured of the year-end ranking no matter what results Federer has.

If Djokovic wins two group matches, Federer has to win the Tour Finals after winning all his group games as well as the two live rubbers in Lille. Also, Switzerland should win their first Davis Cup title and the Serb should either fail to progress to the semifinals or lose his semifinal match.

If Djokovic wins only a single match and fails to progress further at the O2 arena, then a title win in London with wins in all group matches will assure Federer of the year-end number 1 spot. Even if Federer loses a match in the group stage, multiple wins in the live rubbers of the Davis Cup final with a Swiss win can help him reclaim the top ranking. The same scenario will also be there if the Serb loses all his group matches.

With a huge margin of 1310 points, it appears that the number 1 ranking is in touching distance of the 27-year old. It would require a monumental effort from Federer along with some results going in his favor if he has to reach the zenith of world tennis again.