Does Roger Federer deserve the year-end No. 1 ranking?

Roger Federer will aim to end the year with a bang

Federer and Djokovic to vie for No. 1

2014 hasn‘t been a great year Slam-wise, by Roger Federer’s standards. He was a semifinalist at the Australian Open and the US Open, made a fourth round exit at Roland Garros and finished runner-up at Wimbledon. It has been more than two years since Federer won a Grand Slam title, but his fans continue to be hopeful he can get his hands on Major No. 18 next year.

That said, we have seen a resurgence in Federer’s play this year compared to his 2013 returns, where his best effort at a Grand Slam was a semifinal appearance in Melbourne. The Swiss maestro has turned things around remarkably this year, thanks in part to his coach Stefan Edberg who has been assisting him since January and his switch to a larger racket.

Federer last regained the No. 1 ranking after winning his seventh Wimbledon title in 2012, and it was Novak Djokovic who eventually finished as No. 1 that year. And now, with a year filled with strong performances and near-finishes at the Slams, the Swiss has a chance yet again to ascend the ATP throne.

Federer has won four titles so far this year – Dubai, Halle, Cincinnati and Shanghai. With the kind of form he showed post the US Open, Federer could very well add more titles to his list. It will be an intriguing battle over the next few days as Djokovic and Federer try to finish the year on a high.

At this moment, the Serb is 990 points ahead of Federer, and both players have already qualified for the ATP World Tour finals in London. Federer is seeded No. 1 in Basel and is looking to win his sixth title in his home town, while Djokovic is yet to make his decision on playing in the Paris Masters which starts on October 27.

Moving on from the high-octane Wimbledon final

Federer has bounced back in phenomenal fashion after losing a heartbreaking Wimbledon final to Djokovic this year. The five-time Basel champion got the better of Djokovic to win his first Shanghai Masters title last week, and he fought off five match points in his match against Leonardo Mayer in the same tournament.

Djokovic, on the other hand, has clearly stated that at the moment, family takes precedence over the game as his wife Jelena Ristic is expected to give birth to their first child. That could mean that the 7-time Grand Slam champion could miss Paris Masters and the World Tour finals in London, which opens up the gate for Federer if he goes on to win in Basel.

Federer’s remarkable year can be seen in his improved win-loss record over the top 10 compared to last year. He was 4-10 against them in 2013, but is 13-4 this year. His overall record is 61-10 so far, which is an amazing 85.92% winning rate.

Djokovic on the other hand has added five titles to his kitty this year – Indian Wells, Miami, Rome, Wimbledon and the China Open. His win-loss record this year is 52-8, for a win percentage of 86.67 %. His record against the top 10 has been 12-5 in 2014.

While there have been questions raised about the ATP ranking system over the last few years, one cannot take anything away from the 33-year-old’s comeback on numerous occasions in 2014. Who can forget his win over Gael Monfils in the US Open quarterfinals after being two sets down. Besides the No. 1 ranking, there is also the Davis Cup final against France on the line for Federer – the one trophy he hasn’t managed to win during his career.

Will there be a furore if Federer gets to No. 1?

Caroline Wozniacki became World No. 1 after winning the Dubai Open in 2011. She hadn’t a single major up to that point (and still hasn’t to this day), but had still leaped ahead of Kim Clijsters who had won the 2010 US Open, the 2010 WTA Tour Championships and the 2011 Australian Open. What was shocking for many pundits at the time was that the Dane did not feature in a single Grand Slam final in 2010, but had still somehow ascended to the top.

The Odense native had played the most number of tournaments that year – 24, which was far higher than her competitors at that point – Venus had played 15, Serena 14, Clijsters 13 and Henin 10. Naturally, Wozniacki’s No. 1 ranking set tongues wagging, and led to the establishment of the theory that the Women’s Tennis Association (WTA) focuses more on the number of matches played rather than success in majors for determining the rankings.

Similarly, Jelena Jankovic finished 2008 as the No. 1 player. She had won titles in Stuttgart, Beijing and Moscow, but played (and lost) just one Major final in the year. Her 63 matches won was the most on tour and she showed up at all her scheduled tournaments, which was the biggest reason for her high ranking.

Jankovic did make it to the semis of the Australian and French Opens and the fourth round of Wimbledon in addition to the one Slam final at the US Open, so it's not like she failed at all the big tournaments. Still, she couldn’t escape criticism from the fans and the media alike for being a ‘Slamless No. 1’.

It will be interesting to see if there is any criticism directed towards Federer if he does manage to end the year as the No. 1 player in the world. After all, he hasn’t won a Major in 2014, while Djokovic has. Will the Swiss Maestro, the perpetual darling of the media and the fans, be subjected to the same condescending treatment that was meted out to the Wozniackis and the Jankovics?

One thing’s for sure: if Federer ends 2014 as the World No. 1 player, it will make for a very interesting few weeks in the media.