French Open 2010: Men's Draw Analysis

Nadal wants his French Open crown back

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, and even more so if you have its assistance when in the process of making predictions. It was only this morning that I had decided to pick Ernests Gulbis to slash his way through his quarter (upsetting Roger Federer along the way) and reach his first ever Grand Slam semifinal at this year’s French Open. But as I write this, Gulbis is down a set and two breaks against Frenchman Julien Benneteau, and he’s got an injured leg to deal with in addition to the whistles and catcalls of the partisan Paris crowd. If that wasn’t a close shave, then I don’t know what is. On that note, let’s get down to the business of parsing the men’s draw at Roland Garros, and you can bet I won’t be picking Gulbis to make any kind of progress whatsoever.

First Quarter: Defending the Dream

It feels strange referring to Federer as the defending champion of the French Open. For years he’s entered Roland Garros as the top seed with people lamenting the injustice of having Rafael Nadal, the best claycourter in the world by quite a distance, being relegated lower down the order despite everyone knowing his obvious superiority on the dirt. This time, Federer enters the French Open as the top seed and the defending champion, and while the latter bit may have been achieved through a fair amount of courageous grinding and admirable fight, it’s not going to shut the naysayers up. Still, I don’t see anyone getting past the Swiss in this quarter now that Gulbis seems to be back to his pre-Rome wild ways. Marin Cilic and Gael Monfils can make for competitive matches, but Cilic has somewhat lost his way after his hot start to the year and Monfils is only just coming back from injury. Robin Soderling will be Federer’s likely opponent in the quarterfinal, and while Soderling’s pre-French Open clay form may not be much different from last year (if your remember, despite being wiped off the floor 6-0, 6-1 by Nadal in a warmup tournament, he charged to the final here, defeating Nadal on the way), lightning doesn’t really strike twice.

Prediction: Federer def. Soderling

Second Quarter: Exploring the Unknown

Andy Murray couldn’t possibly have asked for a worse first round match – he’s drawn to face Richard Gasquet, who’s coming off a title run in Nice last week. Murray has had to endure an awful couple of months since his loss to Federer in the Australian Open final, and clay is not quite the best surface for him to start showing signs of life. Honestly though, this quarter is wide open; if not Murray, then who makes the semis? Jo-Wilfried Tsonga usually feeds off the home support pretty well, but passionate cheering from the crowds is not going to make up for the glaring inconsistencies that often characterize Tsonga’s play. John Isner, Mikhail Youzhny, Tommy Robredo and Marcos Baghdatis all find themselves in this free-for-all section, but none of these names screams ‘semifinal contender’ to me. That leaves us with Tomas Berdych, the strapping Czech with the thundering groundstrokes who’s been known for his wavering competitive instincts in the past but who did reach the Miami final this year on the back of some stirring, hard-fought wins. Is it time for a partial (24 is way too advanced an age for this) coming of age?

Prediction: Berdych def. Murray

Third Quarter: Ferrer’s Time to Shine

Novak Djokovic may be the highest seed here, and the man technically even has a chance to be ranked No.1 in the world after the tournament is over, but for that to happen, all the pollen in France will have to be filtered out by some kind of giant cleansing device custom-built to meet emergencies exactly of the kind the Serb is known to be saddled with. Djokovic is reportedly suffering from an allergy to pollen, and considering how mightily he’s struggled this year even when fully fit, it would take some courage to bet on him when he’s down with an allergic illness. David Ferrer, meanwhile, is enjoying one of the best phases of his career, putting together an impressive clay season that was only bettered by Nadal. Noisemakers here include Andy Roddick, who hasn’t played a single claycourt match this year, Sam Querrey and Juan Carlos Ferrero, but I like Ferrer’s chances against all of them.

Prediction: Ferrer def. Djokovic

Fourth Quarter: The Emperor Returns

Is it really necessary to even think about analyzing this section of the draw? Look at Nadal’s potential lineup of matches: an opener against Gianni Mina (ever heard of him?), second round against Horacio Zeballos, third round against Lleyton Hewitt (who’s been beaten by Nadal like a drum quite a few times at the French, and I think twice in the third round itself), fourth round against Ivan Ljubicic/Thomaz Belluci, and a quarterfinal against Fernando Verdasco. You’d be forgiven for thinking that the fates decided to lay out a charmingly cushy path for Nadal to reclaim his crown. But then again, wouldn’t you feel the exact same thing if Nadal’s seven matches in the tournament were against the top 7 seeds? There’s no place to hide against Nadal on clay.

Prediction: Nadal def. Verdasco

Semifinal 1: Federer vs Berdych

Berdych may have battled past Federer in Miami earlier this year, but the Federer that played the third set tiebreak in that match doesn’t often make an appearance in a Grand Slam, much less in a Grand Slam semifinal. Expect a clinical display from the Swiss World No. 1 to extend his current Slam final streak to 9.

Prediction: Federer def. Berdych

Semifinal 2: Nadal vs Ferrer

Like I need to say anything.

Prediction: Nadal def. Ferrer

Final: Nadal has never gone through a whole clay season unbeaten; the law of averages should point to a stumble at some stage, and if anyone is going to make that stumble count, it’s got to be Roger Federer. But if the law of averages applied to Nadal the same way it did to ordinary mortals, then Nadal wouldn’t have had 4 French Open crowns in the bag before he turned 23 and he wouldn’t have had a scarcely believable 14-7 head-to-head record against the greatest player in history. The Emperor is back, and he won’t rest until he’s sitting on his throne.

Champion: Nadal