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The stars have lined up for the weekend at Roland Garros.
Along the way, a few old-timers threatened to break through, and a Frenchman actually managed to disturb the perfect symmetry of a Top 4 seeds face-off, but the final four men who remain have been, by all accounts, the most consistent in the tournament, and the most worthy to be there. This was exemplified in the quarter-finals, where each of them turned in impeccable performances, playing their best tennis with almost a sense of entitlement to be in the last four.
Trending
As a result, we have two very well-balanced and incredibly hard-to-call semi-final matches on the line. The match-up that everyone has been talking about ever since the draw came out (and before), and the match-up that could either thrill or break a million French hearts.
Here is a preview of both, analyzed along four dimensions that could be pertinent to the outcome – Surface, Head-to-head, Occasion and Trending Form. A SHOT analysis, if you will.
Novak Djokovic [1] vs Rafael Nadal [3]
- Overall H2H: 15 – 19
- Clay H2H: 3 – 12
- Grand Slam H2H: 3 – 6
- H2H since 2011: 8 – 3
Surface of Play
Quite simply, Nadal is the undisputed king of clay. The heavy top spin of his shots and his jaw-dropping defensive skills have become the stuff of tennis legend. While Djokovic pales in comparison, he is no clay court slouch himself. After initially making a name for himself on the hard courts, he established his premier clay credentials a couple of years back by doing the unthinkable – beating Nadal on clay for back-to-back titles at Madrid and Rome. But the sheer volume of victories, the natural alignment of his game to the surface, and the return of warm, sunny days to Roland Garros, gives Nadal the edge here.
Edge: Nadal
Head-to-Head Match-up
Their personal history has had two distinct phases so far. Till the end of 2010, Nadal effectively owned Djokovic, especially on the big stage, with occasional minor uprisings from the Serb. This is reflected in Nadal’s 16 victories in 23 encounters in that period. In 2011, Djokovic made his stirring run to the top of the table, and a major implication of that was on his head-to-head with Rafa. Since that period, Djokovic has won 8 of their 11 meetings, 3 of them in premier clay court finals, even forcing Nadal to acknowledge that Djokovic had ‘got into his head’. Since Rafa’s return to the circuit, it doesn’t appear that he has quite shaken off the bug yet. One of his only two losses this year came at the hands of the Djoker at Monte Carlo, a tournament Nadal calls home with 7 titles. Rafa’s fans, on the other hand, will look at their encounter from last year’s French Open as a more appropriate indicator for Friday.
Edge: Djokovic
Occasion
To say the context of this match is huge would be an understatement. Nadal is looking to achieve an eighth title triumph at a single Grand Slam tournament, which would be unprecedented in the sport’s history. Djokovic is aiming to achieve his personal Grand Slam by picking up the one trophy missing in his collection. Besides, the outcome of this match can be expected to have a huge bearing on the future dynamics of their rivalry. Given all that, it was interesting to hear what both of them thought about their semi-final in their press conferences. While Djokovic labeled it the ‘biggest match of our campaign’, Nadal was content to call it ‘a match which would lead to getting into the final’. While these responses are typical of their individual personalities, it must be said that Djokovic has gone public on multiple occasions, stating that Roland Garros is his number one priority for the year. In addition, he went through the emotional upheaval of the loss of a dear coach earlier this week. And Djokovic tends to be inspired, rather than distracted, by events like that. Both players will be desperate for victory, but perhaps Djokovic a tiny bit more.
Edge: Djokovic
Trending Form
Both players have smoothly got into their grooves over the course of the last five matches at Roland Garros. While Nadal looked slightly off-colour in his first couple of rounds, and Djokovic was made to sweat by Kohlschreiber in the fourth round, their performances in the quarter-finals against worthy opponents were excellent and signaled the typical champion’s tendency to find the best form when he needs it the most.
However, looking back at the rest of the clay court season that preceded the French Open, Nadal definitely did have the upper hand. Titles at Barcelona, Madrid and Rome capped off an incredible return to the game after a 7 month layoff for him. Djokovic, on the other hand, had a few puzzling losses in the lead-up tournaments, which must rankle. All will be forgotten, though, if he lifts the trophy on Sunday.
Edge: Nadal
Prediction: Nadal wins in a barn-burner of a 5-set match, which will write a whole new chapter in their rivalry
Random Point to Ponder: Along the lines of the Fedal rivalry, which term has a better ring to it – Rafole or Djodal?
David Ferrer [4] vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga [6]
- Overall H2H: 2 – 1
- Clay H2H: 1 – 0
- Grand Slam H2H: 0 – 1
- H2H since 2011: 1 – 1
Surface of Play
Considering this dimension in isolation, this is a mismatch. Ferrer tirelessly runs around the baseline retrieving balls for ever, like he was born to play on clay. The primary reason for his lack of Roland Garros success has been the presence of the Big Four. The hulking Tsonga, on the other hand, has had his best results on the quicker grass and hard courts. However, this is now Tsonga’s best ever showing at the French Open, and his clinical dismantling of Federer the other day might indicate a new-found understanding of the demands of clay.
Edge: Ferrer
Head-to-Head Match-up
The most puzzling statistic between these two veterans on the circuit is that they have played each other just thrice in their careers, once each on clay, grass and hard courts. Should we blame the Big Four and their dominating ways again for this lack of opportunity for other perfectly fine tennis players to build some kind of history? It makes one wonder what kind of intriguing rivalries have been missed over the years because of the cartel at the top. As expected, Ferrer won the only time these two players met on clay before.
Edge: Ferrer
Occasion
The French crowd will definitely want a piece of this action. It has been 30 years since a son-of-the-soil lifted the trophy at Roland Garros, and the belief that the drought’s end might be in sight has been gradually building up over the week. Even Yannick Noah himself, a pessimist of French hopes before the fortnight, has said that Tsonga’s impressive run has him now ‘hoping against hope’.
Though Tsonga can count on the crowd to provide him support, he is no Gael Monfils. The vociferous home crowd could easily turn out to be a factor against him, if he falls prey to one of his inexplicable lapses in concentration. After all, Tsonga himself expressed doubts very recently about any Frenchman winning Roland Garros anytime soon. At the other end, Ferrer, the Davis Cup stalwart for Spain, knows a thing or two about playing in the enemy’s camp, and tends to thrive in those situations. He might, in all probability, be licking his lips at the prospect of playing Tsonga and 14,000 other French people on Friday.
Edge: Ferrer
Trending Form
Neither player has lost a set so far in the tournament, which is a testament to the consistently high standard of tennis they have exhibited this fortnight. In the lead-up tournaments to the French Open, Ferrer was stopped by Nadal on a couple of occasions, which can never be a disgrace. Tsonga had a more up-and-down road to Roland Garros. At that time, it seemed like a usual clay court season for him. Now, in the semi-finals of the French Open, things look distinctly different.
Edge: Ferrer
Prediction: Although Ferrer outshines Tsonga on all four counts, the margins are not high, and this should be an exciting match between the explosive shotmaking of Tsonga and the relentless grinding of Ferrer. Expect the ever-consistent Ferrer to make it through to his first Grand Slam final in four close sets.
Random Point to Ponder: If Tsonga does manage to make it to the final on Sunday, would he give his entire presentation speech in French?
What is the foot injury that has troubled Rafael Nadal over the years? Check here
